ASB WI: Intermarium was established

'Intermarium' or 'Meizdymore' in Polish is the idea of a federation consisting of Poland and surrounding countries. The last time Poland was part of something similar was the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth.

When that fell, in between the November and January Uprisings, a precursor to Intermarium was an idea by Prince Adam Czartoryski to restore the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, federated with the Czechs, Slovaks, Hungarians, Romanians and all the South Slavs of the future Yugoslavia. Unfortunately due to the many reasons such as lack of Western support and rising German nationalism, the idea was killed off.

During World War I and immediately after it, Josef Pilsudski tinkered with the idea as a counterweight to German and Russian imperialism. His idea: a Intermarium consisting of Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, Belarus, Poland, Ukraine, Romania and Czechoslovakia. He revised it to be qausi-democratic in nature.

However, no one supported it. The Western Allies believed that Bolshevism was a temporary threat and advised Poland to remain in areas of clear-cut Polish ethnicity, the Lithuanians, Latvians, Ukrainians and Belarussans all feared Polish domination in the supposedly multi-cultural union, not helped by Pilsudski's militaristic expansion of Polish borders into Ukrainian land.

Eventually, this plan was scrapped too.

After the Polish-Soviet War, when it was realized that creating a Polish-Ukrainian axis was impossible, Pilsudski tried again, this time he expanded his plans to include Scandinavia, Yugoslavia and Greece. As you can imagine, this plan flopped too.

To avoid pushing the boundaries of plausibility more than I am already, let's go with Pilsudski's first plan.

What if Pilsudski's first Intermarium came into being in 1919, soon after independence of Poland?
 
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BigBlueBox

Banned
Did any country that would have been a part of this other than poland actually want to be?
In the event that Belarus and Ukraine were separated from the Bolsheviks, those two states would be so reliant on Poland that they could not refuse. Lithuania could be bribed or blackmailed into joining too. The biggest problem though is that Poland itself didn't want to be a part of it. National Democracy, the ruling party, wanted a fully-sovereign ethnically pure nation-state, not some kind of confederation or federation.
 
In the event that Belarus and Ukraine were separated from the Bolsheviks, those two states would be so reliant on Poland that they could not refuse. Lithuania could be bribed or blackmailed into joining too. The biggest problem though is that Poland itself didn't want to be a part of it. National Democracy, the ruling party, wanted a fully-sovereign ethnically pure nation-state, not some kind of confederation or federation.
Idk Lithuania wanted no part of Poland otl and viewed them as a one of their greatest threats.
This federation is going to antagonize the hell out of Germany and Russia by just existing so it will need serious western backing if it is to survive.
 
the Lithuanians, Latvians, Ukrainians and Belarussans all feared Polish domination in the supposedly multi-cultural union, not helped by Pilsudski's militaristic expansion of Polish borders into Ukrainian land.

Essentially you need Poland to be able to enforce this, in 1920-21, by brute force. You need a better show against the Soviet Union, followed by the creation of a small buffer Ukrainan state (also to avoid the incorporation of way too many non-Poles) that will be subordinate to Poland. Then the Lithuanians can be bullied into joining, again in a junior partner role.

What you get is a late equivalent of the Austro-Hungarian empire, only with Warsaw in the role of Vienna. Everybody will fear and resent this thing.
 

Really?

I posit the Poles need brute force to achieve this. That means Polish boots on the ground in Vilnius and Kiev. This might be portrayed, nominally, as a Federation; local helpers would be found, etc. But it would be such a thing more or less to the same extent that, for the Kazakhs or Armenians, the USSR was a "Union". So the Lithuanians and Ukrainans would hate it.

I also posit the Soviets are defeated in the 1920-21, 1922 at the latest. That means they have an axe to grind against this Federation, also because they want to retrieve former Czarist territory; and additionally a powerful Poland can't be to their liking regardless of the above.

The Germans' ideal arrangement is for no Polish independent state at all, so they mightily resent this.

The Czechoslovakians fear, given the grand geostrategic design, to be the next morsel. Maybe there is a small minority within Czechoslovakia, i.e. some of the Ruthenians, who might feel they'd be better off as part of the Ukrainan side of the Federation; everyone else fears it.

The remaining Baltic and Balkan states also fear further expansion, even though not as much as the Czechoslovakians.

In France, conservatives will approve of a strong ally on the other side of Germany, as well as of a non-Communist strong bulwark facing the SU. But the liberals will see this as a failure of the sweet idea of self-determination for the peoples, and the Communists and leftists, you know. Given that eventually the Front Populaire won the elections in France, that gives an idea of what the French taken as a whole will think of this.

In Britain, what I mentioned as to France is true to the extent that they care. It's good mentioning that by 1939, there was an undercurrent of thought that put into doubt Poland was worthy of the effort.

Finally, in Poland itself, most people will be happy with this, but not the ultra-nationalists, who would probably prefer a pure national state and/or resent any compromise accepted as a bone thrown to the Lithuanians and Ukrainans.
 
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The next step for Intermarium is to dismantle the Soviet Union piece by piece. If a (second) war is fought with the Soviets, in addition to supporting the independence of minorities within the Soviet Union, Intermarium would directly annex the territories formerly part of Poland-Lithuania which were part of the RSFSR. They'd probably promote a Belarusian or other non-Russian identity (Belarusian nationalists claimed the people of Smolensk and Bryansk as Belarusians in the early 20th century) in those places.
 
Two questions.

How could this be achieved?

Would the loss of Ukraine affect the Soviet Union in any negative way?

To the second question the answer is absolutely. Ukraine provided an extra ~30 million people and the most fertile land on earth. Its loss could really have a bad effect in Russia possibly leading to famine if things get really bad. This could also have a great effect once the purges begin someone has to be blamed for the loss of Europe's largest Nation.

In my opinion an Intermarium in the 20s or 30s is unlikely. A multinational federation? That's insane, the Lithuanians know the Poles will dominate the federation which means their very existence as a Nation is at risk. They also probably would never control Vilnius in such a federation. The same in regards to Ukraine. Petliura was unpopular by 1921 and was viewed by many, Galicians and most peasants, as a traitor. Entering into a federation with Poland would be disastrous. Even Petliura probably would not accept this arrangement.

Frankly an Intermarium is far more likely today than 1921. Of course such an Intermarium would be a military and political alliance between sovereign nations, not an international federation. This idea, the federation, is and has always been politically impractical for the polish, Ukrainians, and other nationalities.
 
They also probably would never control Vilnius in such a federation.
There are many things that are shitty with the Miedzymorze concept, but this isn't one of them, to be honest.

At first, only a minority of Polish politicians, especially Dmowski and his wing, supported a permanent Polish stay at Vilnius, while the others much rather have preferred a friendly Lithuanian state or Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth II: Electric Boogaloo. Occupying Vilnius was seen as a temporary measure to get the Lithuanians to follow (refer to Pilsudski's "Proclamation to the Inhabitants of the Former Grand Duchy of Lithuania" here), and only when the government in Kaunas remained stubborn and refused all offers, then Poland decided to just keep Vilnius.

If anything, if Intermarium were to somehow happen and become an actual federation, and not just a military alliance, then the autonomous "Lithuania" within it would be a lot bigger than OTL Interwar Lithuania, because it would likely include most of OTL Belarus.
 
There are many things that are shitty with the Miedzymorze concept, but this isn't one of them, to be honest.

At first, only a minority of Polish politicians, especially Dmowski and his wing, supported a permanent Polish stay at Vilnius, while the others much rather have preferred a friendly Lithuanian state or Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth II: Electric Boogaloo. Occupying Vilnius was seen as a temporary measure to get the Lithuanians to follow (refer to Pilsudski's "Proclamation to the Inhabitants of the Former Grand Duchy of Lithuania" here), and only when the government in Kaunas remained stubborn and refused all offers, then Poland decided to just keep Vilnius.

If anything, if Intermarium were to somehow happen and become an actual federation, and not just a military alliance, then the autonomous "Lithuania" within it would be a lot bigger than OTL Interwar Lithuania, because it would likely include most of OTL Belarus.

What I'm saying is that the Lithuanians have reason to fear being in the federation. During the first commonwealth they were oppressed and their nobility polonified. I don't think the Lithuanians were particularly unreasonable not wanting to be the minor partners in a union.
 
What I'm saying is that the Lithuanians have reason to fear being in the federation. During the first commonwealth they were oppressed and their nobility polonified. I don't think the Lithuanians were particularly unreasonable not wanting to be the minor partners in a union.
Well, that is an entirely different and a legitimate problem. I was just pointing out that Intermarium membership did not necessitate losing Vilnius.
 
What I'm saying is that the Lithuanians have reason to fear being in the federation. During the first commonwealth they were oppressed and their nobility polonified. I don't think the Lithuanians were particularly unreasonable not wanting to be the minor partners in a union.
Lithuanians of all people opressed? Really? Unless you mean opressed by their own nobility, but this was the case of Poles and Ruthenians of all flavors as well.
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
An actual federation like the Federal Republic of Germany is definitely ASB. Realistically, it would be a customs union and mutual defense agreement, so it would be even less integrated than the EU.
 
Lithuanians of all people opressed? Really? Unless you mean opressed by their own nobility, but this was the case of Poles and Ruthenians of all flavors as well.

What Lithuanian and Ukrainian nobility? By the 17th century both had been so thoroughly exterminated or Polonified that neither existed.

Don't get me wrong Polish serfs were oppresed to, all serfs were inherently oppressed by the very nature of being serfs.

An actual federation like the Federal Republic of Germany is definitely ASB. Realistically, it would be a customs union and mutual defense agreement, so it would be even less integrated than the EU.

I think OP is referring to Pilsudski's original idea in the 20s and 30s. Though your certainly right about present day.
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
I think OP is referring to Pilsudski's original idea in the 20s and 30s. Though your certainly right about present day.
I know he was talking about the post-WW1 idea, what I'm saying is that even Pilsudski would have realized that an actual federation would have been overly ambitious, and would have settled for trade agreements and mutual defense, kind of like a quasi-NATO and quasi-EEC.
 
I know he was talking about the post-WW1 idea, what I'm saying is that even Pilsudski would have realized that an actual federation would have been overly ambitious, and would have settled for trade agreements and mutual defense, kind of like a quasi-NATO and quasi-EEC.

Yes, but the Lithuanians and Ukrainans were against even this little, in OTL, so the only way to achieve anything at all is to go for broke, a quasi-SU, against the wishes of the smaller partners just like the SU.
 
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