As part of my endless cold-war with Susano...

[Zyzzyva]

Disunited Germany as long as possible (to 1900 at least and to the present if possible). The yellow area must have at least five independent* states, with more being a bonus, and continuity with HREGN princely states is also a bonus. POD after... say... 1789.

*And no Second Reich "independance" crap, either.

Now, for all that this is kindof on a whim, I'd like to think about this seriously. The wiki suggests "a bunch of authouritarian, troubled states" which seems like a good jumping off point. German nationalism, as Susano will tell us within three posts of the OP, was a going thing by the start of the 19th C, but that's not necessarily going to be sufficient. If we can get Germany screwed up enough through the 19th C we can pull this off (I think).

So: FRWars go differently. HRE survives, maybe? Austria gets messed-over, which leaves this massive vacuum in Germany? Also, we need the other powers to have some interest in the status quo in Germany, and keeping eg Prussia from taking things over. If we get the Germans, a la LTTW, to think the Austrians are a bunch of evil bastards, and the Prussians for whatever reason come out of the war hated and feared by the Russians, Swedes, little German states, so they'll keep it from pulling a Bismark, and a massive reactionary takeover of the individual countries, maybe via some kind of 1848 gone horribly bad - can we get to 1900 this way?

 

[Thande]

OK, how about this: Alexander of Russia decides Napoleon is his best friend for a little longer, and to be honest he was so away with the fairies (as well as being an absolute monarch) that's not much of a POD. This means that Napoleon can get away with abolishing Prussia (and annexing it to the Confederation of the Rhine?) rather than merely pulverising it to its bare bones after the Winter War.

Where to go from there...I don't know. Napoleon wins the Napoleonic Wars, maybe eventually goes after Austria, the Confed. holds together shakily for a bit, then there's alt-1848, France faces lots of internal dissent, and the Confed. and other French-backed German states collapse and we end up with several states arising from the ashes - say Prussia, Bavaria, Saxony, Westphalia, Austria if it wasn't independent already, and who knows what would happen to the rest.

Of course German unification could then pick up again but if it's sufficiently delayed, that would fulfil the conditions of the OP.

 

[Susano]

*grumbles*

I think Ill say more on that tomorrow... dont have the time today anymore...

 

[Valdemar II]

Avoid the Revolutionary Wars, and you will likely not see a united Germany.

 

[Northstar]

I was going to say that you could have an independent Austria, but Anchluss is inevitable........

 

[Dr. Waterhouse]

I think that comment about the French Revolution rather cuts the Gordian knot there, doesn't it? Because even if there's a popular sentiment towards German unification, in most of these states there's not really going to be means for that sentiment on the part of Johann Q. Public to be turned into policy, and of course the ruling sovereigns of each house will have a vested interest in maintaining the old order.

And certainly at the very least the military fortunes of the German states against the French magnified the nationalism, so that it would at least be a weaker force for them to deal with.

And let's face it, the HRE is functionally meaningless, but in some ways that's it's strength--with no Napoleon to put it out of its misery it can trundle along a few more generations because it serves as a kind of benign placeholder to forestall the rise of a real centralized state, and it doing that is in the interests of everyone who are not the likely hegemon at the center of that state, which is to say everyone but Prussia.

Also, if somehow everything else stays the same and the second and third partitions of Poland go through and are not undone by the Duchy of Warsaw and the Russian acquisition of Poland after the Napoleonic wars, then Austria and Prussia are enormous, and if France is contained the English balance-of-power instinct might shift to neutralize them and protect its stake in Hanover. We could even see some type of English-led alliance of the mini-states that's basically an institutional bribe against combining with Prussia.

So for me the biggest worry is the point of departure to prevent the French Revolution or at least curb its military successes. Perhaps the French don't shift to conscription? Perhaps Napoleon dies in childhood? I don't know, this is not really my area. I'm more a Milton man than I am Goethe.

But Let's see...at the very least we got five independent German states though: we got your Hanover, your Prussia, your Austria, your Wurttemburg, and I get the feelin' I'm forgetting one...

One really important.

It's on the tip of my tongue...

Oh, yes. Of course.

Avoid the Revolutionary Wars, and you will likely not see a united Germany.

 

[pompejus]

The key to avoiding a Germany is to avoid German Nationalism and I believe the easiest way to accomplish that is to create some kind of regional nationalism. This worked OTL with the Netherlands and Switserland (and at a leter point the Flemish, Luxembourgish and Austrians). They developed a national identity seperate from the German identity. I am not certain how to accomplish that. The best way is perhaps the French revolution developing in a completely different way and leading to a thirty year war-like war in Germany in which during several decades various German nations fight each other (and other nations close to it, like France). During this war a regional identity for for example Prussia, Bavaria, Austria, Saxony and Hanover developes and those five nations basicly divide the HRE (together with some neighbouring countries, like France gaining the saar etc.)

 

[Caledor]

I
And let's face it, the HRE is them and But Let's see...at the very least we got five independent German states though: we got your Hanover, your Prussia, your Austria, your Wurttemburg, and I get the feelin' I'm forgetting one...

One really important.

It's on the tip of my tongue...

Oh, yes. Of course.

i don't really recognise that flag.

 

[Nekromans]

i don't really recognise that flag.

It's Saxony, which is given a slight boost in his TL. It says so in the filename.

 

[pompejus]

i don't really recognise that flag.

It is probably the flag of Baden, Brunswick, Oldenburg, Mecklenburg, Bavaria, Hesse, Nassau, Westpfalia, Anhalt, East-Frisia or Cleves/Julich/Berg or some other minor German state.

 

[Grimm Reaper]

Easily done. France intervenes in 1866 on Austria's side, Prussia is defeated but suffers only minor territorial adjustments. If a generation passes before the next war then Hanover, Prussia, Saxony, Bavaria and dozens of smaller states still survive.

 

[RGB]

I don't know about post-1789, but the Seven Years' War looks like a good place to really limit Prussia, provided the Russians stay in the fight.

That makes Austria stronger, however, while at the same time preserving the Empire.

 

[Hashasheen]

This isn't my area of History, but as for nations? Prussia, Saxony, Bavaria, Austria and the Rhine in a renewed Burgundian state?

 

[Susano]

Avoid the Revolutionary Wars, and you will likely not see a united Germany.

Nonsense, though it could fulfill the "in 1900" condition. German national identity existed, just not nationalism, but that was so europe wide. However, there will be an impetus to unite the states, for economcial reasons alone, and besides "Germany" can always be used as a way to create a larger realm, as Prussia tried in 1850 and succeeded in 1870 IOTL. Its... not that easy. Thandes idea is better, because if France remains dominant, well, thats more complicated for Germany then...

And also, if the HRE exists, which it will without the Revolutionary Wars, Germany is de jure united

This worked OTL with the Netherlands (...). They developed a national identity seperate from the German identity.

A Dutch not denying the past? I am shocked!
The thing is - doing that with all regions of Germany? That could be... complicated. Any rump, well, Germany, might still call itself Germany.

Easily done. France intervenes in 1866 on Austria's side, Prussia is defeated but suffers only minor territorial adjustments. If a generation passes before the next war then Hanover, Prussia, Saxony, Bavaria and dozens of smaller states still survive.

...yeah, thats the cliche fulfilled to a t and patent nonsense

 

[DuQuense]

Surprised No one has mentioned a King Victor, and the continued Union of England/ Hanover.
This could take a big chuck around Hamburg out of possible union talks, depending on English /Prussian/ other German, relations.

 

[Lord Grattan]

Surprised No one has mentioned a King Victor, and the continued Union of England/ Hanover.
This could take a big chuck around Hamburg out of possible union talks, depending on English /Prussian/ other German, relations.

Wel then, I'll mention it now, because that's what I'm working on now in my ongoing CoHE TL. I may have the Danes keep Schleswig too.

 

[Susano]

Prussian Army, meet Hannover. Hannover, Prussian Army
On its own, Great Britain, too much a naval power, is unable to stop it. Now, if it has a stable alliance with either France or Russia, thats another thing...

 

[fhaessig]

How about a PoD after German unification? A more repressive second Reich, due to less prestige of prussian militarism, which leds to more resistance, which are focused around the old states?

Or what if the revolutionary and empire wars were much more destructive on the Germanies. As destructive as the 30 year war, leading to a ruined land. For a century, the focus would be on reconstruction rather than unification. PoD for this? Just take Susano's version of french behaviour as real. To be more realistic, what if Brunswick manifesto had been applied to the Germanies by the french occupiers, as revenge?

 

[I Blame Communism]

How about a PoD after German unification? A more repressive second Reich, due to less prestige of prussian militarism, which leds to more resistance, which are focused around the old states?

I don't see a why to tarnish the Prussian army after the Franco-Prussian war short of *WW1. And of course after OTL WW1, Germany went to hell, and still emerged as united as it is today. And why would less influence from generals and junkers make the Reich more repressive?

Or what if the revolutionary and empire wars were much more destructive on the Germanies. As destructive as the 30 year war, leading to a ruined land. For a century, the focus would be on reconstruction rather than unification. PoD for this? Just take Susano's version of french behaviour as real. To be more realistic, what if Brunswick manifesto had been applied to the Germanies by the french occupiers, as revenge?

Re-unification and reconstruction are hardly mutually exclusive. Indeed, the last thing economic recovery needs is Schwarzburg-Unter-Pfalz-Saxe-Eisenach-Kleve-Dreiunddreisig-Stein imposing customs duties. And a reversed Brunswick manifesto presumbaly means "we'll loot and pillage if you don't harm the king", likely meaning that when the dust clears, its going to be a bit harder for the new duke of S-U-P-S-E-K-D-S to pretend nothing happened.

 

[Valdemar II]

Nonsense, though it could fulfill the "in 1900" condition. German national identity existed, just not nationalism, but that was so europe wide. However, there will be an impetus to unite the states, for economcial reasons alone, and besides "Germany" can always be used as a way to create a larger realm, as Prussia tried in 1850 and succeeded in 1870 IOTL. Its... not that easy. Thandes idea is better, because if France remains dominant, well, thats more complicated for Germany then...

:

I think you're to optimistic, there would be to much inerti and intererst in keeping Germany split. Beside without the Revolutionary Wars, patriot nationalism* would stay the common European Nationalism rather than blood nationalism**. While some consolidation of Germany is inerviateble it will likely be in multible state with none taking the name Germany, and Germany stay/becomes a geographic term for Central Europe.

Of course as small consolation prize, it quite likely that German speaking Europe would be a lot bigger. Likely German would be spread in Austrias and Prussias non-German possesion, but in the west I think flandern would slowly become French-speaking unless it end up part of a bigger Wittelbach state.

*French-style nationalism

**German-style nationalism