[ARW Query] - Patriots in Exile?

So, we know that British Loyalists migrated rather steadily in the wake of the American Revolutionary War to Canada, where they made a major impact on the demographics of the formerly Francophone region. This was largely because of their departures or expulsions from the 13 Colonies. In a situation where the American Patriots are defeated, their properties seized, etc... where do the Patriots and their families go?

Would it be to New France, aka Louisiana? And how would that work out with the likes of an alternate French Revolution brought on by the costs of this failed ARW? Would these Americans turned Louisianians adopt themselves as a sister republic, try and establish some sort of democratic regency for the Bourbons to avoid the British turning guns on them again? Would they go even further west to the likes of Spanish America, intermixing with either the Spanish elite or the native masses to create a new element of the caste system? Migrate down to Brazil ala the Confederados, contributing to their economy and governance?
 
A lot depends on the policies of the British government after an unsuccessful revolution, and also how long the fighting went on. With a quick victory, general amnesty for the bulk of the patriots, and some reforms (that many in Britain thought were needed) most folks will stay put. The longer the war goes on, the more it becomes neighbor against neighbor and that was a major motivator in folks leaving, not deep political convictions.

For Tories, moving to Canada, or elsewhere in the British Empire was straightforward - no need to worry about religious or language issues. For "patriots", not so much. Outside of British possessions, everything in the western hemisphere at that time was not just Catholic, but aggressively so - Protestants generally unwelcome. Additionally there was the language issue, most "patriots" did not speak Spanish, French, or Portuguese. Tories who moved to British controlled areas stayed with a system they embraced, "patriots" moving to Spanish, French, or Portuguese areas would be going to political systems even more authoritarian/monarchist than the British system they revolted against.

Those revolutionaries in the upper echelons, who undoubtedly would face the rope or transportation, will try and run and may have both the connections and finances to do so. Outside of the top levels of the revolution, most of the minutemen will return to their farms and shops and try and keep their heads down. If postwar repression is too great, the most likely scenario would be significant numbers trekking across the Appalachians to settle in areas basically uncontrolled by anyone, no matter who claimed that bit of land - somewhat like the Boers in South Africa. Depending on the numbers and other factors they may actually merge with some Native American groups, be wiped out, or have enclaves that will, in tim, be overtaken by the great nations of Europe as their control expands.

IMHO the most likely outcome is the top leaders run or hang, there is some level of tory/patriot "badness" for a while but limited, and most folks simply adjust and continue their lives. The mood in England was supportive of reforms, and many feel had some of them been instituted before 1776 there would have been no revolution.
 
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