Articles of Confederation Stay

This has probably been done before, but in case, I want to pose this question. What if the articles of confederation stayed? Would the USA split into 13 seperate countries? Or was this inveitable, and without ASB intervention, impossible to prevent the rise of a stronger national government?
 
If the Articles of Confederation stay, then a scenario like this likely takes place:
  • The Carolinas and Georgia likely unite. Slavery stays until the 1880s- or whenever a slave rebellion overthrows the national government, whichever comes first. Throughout the 20th century, the effects of the alt but probably inevtitable cotton bust and the boll weevil kill the economy. By the 1950s some analog of communism likely arrises and either overthrows whatever government they have or begins a long, drawn out guerilla war a la Colombia's La Violencia. By 2011 they are a third-world basket case.
  • New England also probably unites, and remains a primarily maritime, commercial nation. They industrialize as per OTL, and are likely the most Anglophillic of the former colonies. By 2011 they are a stable, prosperous, western democracy, something along the lines of Belgium, the Netherlands, or Austria
  • New York likely manages to snag Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. With the Great Lakes largely their turf, they would also be a commercial powerhouse. The Erie Canal may be built later, but given time and money it probably will happen, which means NYC will still likely be a megacity. They may either directly annex New Jersey, or split it with PA. By 2011 they are a world-class country on the scale of the UK, Germany, or France
  • Virginia would likely get OTL Kentucky, and perhaps southern Illinois and Indiana. They probably remain a slave power until some date, allthough the soil isn't really suitable for cotton, and gradual emancipation is a possibility. They likely would see an Argentina-style decline over the 20th century, and while not a basket case like the deep south, they are still likely a backwater. they may or may not annex Maryland. If Maryland is independent they will either rise and fall as VA's ports or diversify and live comfortably as a small but prosperoud microstate.
  • Pennsylvania likely just extends their borders to the Mississippi, splitting the Ohio country with NY and VA. they would lilkely industrialise like OTL, and by 2011 they are a prosperous, second tier first world country like Sweden or Norway.
 
Oh... good point.

But anyway, since the USA even really exists, so many butterflies will get created that our own world will be quite alien to say the least.
 
Eh, it'd be an interesting practice in confederalism. I think the question is: are you talking about whether the Articles of Confederation survive in the United States, or that they're simply retained? The former leads to a number of different relationships between the states while the latter is completely up for debate (and no one will be right :D).
 
Basically, I'm talking about the USA never getting a strong national government, i.e. always sticking with the articles of confederation.
 
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