Arthur vs Cleveland 1884

Who'd win the 1884 election if a healthy Arthur was nominated

  • Chester A Arthur

    Votes: 11 78.6%
  • Grover Cleveland

    Votes: 3 21.4%

  • Total voters
    14
One of the factors behind President Arthur not being renominated was because he had Bright's Disease since 1882 and was concerned about dying in office. Let's assume that in this timeline, Arthur never contracts Bright's Disease and will live until 1906. He makes an effort to be renominated, and succeeds. One of the lesser known facts is that Robert Todd Lincoln, son of the 16th president, was considering running for vice president if Arthur was chosen. So for fun, let's say the Republican ticket in 1884 is Chester A Arthur/Robert T Lincoln

The Democratic ticket will see Grover Cleveland and Thomas Hendricks like OTL. Cleveland's paternity scandal never comes up, since I feel that'd be an unfair advantage on the Republican's part. So, in a battle between Chester A Arthur and Grover Cleveland, who's going to win? Is the Dude President going to be the first accidental president renominated, or will Uncle Jumbo finally give the Democrats the win? And regardless who wins, with 20 years added onto his life what do you think Chet Arthur's going to do with them?
 
Cleveland's paternity scandal never comes up, since I feel that'd be an unfair advantage on the Republican's part.

I'm curious as to why.

Anyway, Arthur was quite popular and certainly would've beaten Cleveland. If the corrupt Blaine nearly did, then Arthur would. Especially because the deciding state in 1884 was New York, where Arthur was from. That said, if Cleveland's scandal never comes up then perhaps he'd have a shot at winning. But butterflying away Arthur's disease and Cleveland's scandal is technically two different POD's as it doesn't seem that one would result in the other. So this whole scenario is problematic, but my money is on Arthur.
 
I'm actually curious, what if Arthur keeps his disease, runs anyways, dies, and we have a RT Lincoln presidency.

That being said, Arthur's civil service push probably keeps any reformist Republicans from bolting to Cleveland and Arthur wins NY and thus the presidency.
 
I'm actually curious, what if Arthur keeps his disease, runs anyways, dies, and we have a RT Lincoln presidency.

That being said, Arthur's civil service push probably keeps any reformist Republicans from bolting to Cleveland and Arthur wins NY and thus the presidency.

How do you think Lincoln Jr's presidency would go?
 
How do you think Lincoln Jr's presidency would go?

It depends on when he becomes President. If Arthur dies on schedule in November 1886, I think Lincoln would run in 1888 but sit out 1892. He clearly did not want to be President and only considered the VP position out of personal loyality to Arthur. If he takes office in 1886 he would run again in 1888 out of a sense of duty but never again after that. That said, Lincoln's tenure would probably be identical to Harrison's except that his administration lasts an extra two years. Higher tariffs, push for civil rights, etc. The difference here is that Lincoln would get credit for creating the ICC and he wouldn't have vetoed the Texas Seed Bill in 1887. Lincoln probably defeats Thurman or someother bland Democrat in 1888, but the Dems finally get their comeback in 1892.
 
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