Arthur C. Clarke Timeline

[Mr_ Bondoc]

Just before he passed away, Arthur C. Clarke made the following predictions. The Challenge is to create an ATL wherein the following dates are true:

2001: Cassini space probe (launched 1997) begins exploration of Saturn's moons and rings. Galileo probe (launched 1989) continues surveying Jupiter and its moons. Life beneath the ice-covered oceans of one moon, Europa, appears likely.

2002: The first commercial device producing clean, safe power by low-temperate nuclear reactions goes on the market, heralding the end of the Fossil Fuel Age.

2003: The motor industry is given five years to replace all fuel-burning engines with the new energy device. The same year, NASA's robot Mars Surveyor is launched.

2004: First (publicly admitted) human clone.

2005: First sample sent back to Earth by Mars Surveyor.

2006: Last coal mine closed.

2008: A city in a developing country is devastated by the accidental detonation of an atomic bomb in its armoury. After a brief debate in the United Nations, all nuclear weapons are destroyed.

2009: The first quantum generators (tapping space energy) are developed. Available in portable and household units, from a few kilowatts upwards, they can produce electricity indefinitely. Central power stations close down: the age of pylons ends. Electronic monitoring virtually phases out professional criminals.

2011: Largest living animal filmed: a 76-metre octopus in the Mariana Trench. By coincidence, even larger creatures are then discovered when the first robot probes drill through the ice of Europa.

 

[Elfwine]

Some of those seem reasonably possible, given an early enough POD to get them going, but some seem rather far fetched. The ones that strike me the most (Your mileage may vary):

2006: Last coal mine closed.

Not going to happen. Even with the 2002 idea.

2008: A city in a developing country is devastated by the accidental detonation of an atomic bomb in its armoury. After a brief debate in the United Nations, all nuclear weapons are destroyed.

Theoretically possible, but highly unlikely.

Tying together here:

2001: Cassini space probe (launched 1997) begins exploration of Saturn's moons and rings. Galileo probe (launched 1989) continues surveying Jupiter and its moons. Life beneath the ice-covered oceans of one moon, Europa, appears likely.

2011: Largest living animal filmed: a 76-metre octopus in the Mariana Trench. By coincidence, even larger creatures are then discovered when the first robot probes drill through the ice of Europa.

Quite doable, assuming the robot probes exist.

I'd love to read a timeline where he's right, but I think you'd need a pre-1900 POD for some of this.

Heck, I'd settle for these happening within my lifetime. Fifty years ought to be long enough.

 

[Mr_ Bondoc]

Assuming that the dates are doable, what some of the effects politically? Consider the following:

* Closing of coal mines is certainly going to mean that massive unemployment is going to take place c. 2004-2008. This is going to be hell on any American President or British Prime Minister...

* Commercial nuclear reactors mean means the rise of nuclear terrorism. Even if it is a low-yield device, a terrorist is going to use the device as a "dirty bomb". Also this device would destabilize the Middle East, as the sole commodity of those nations collapses in financial value...

* With a human clone, this is going to be a major nightmare as the Vatican City, the Christian Coalition, and the Taliban all find a common enemy in biotechnology...

 

[SunilTanna]

2002 + 2009 probably require changing the laws of Physics, at least as currently known.

2003 (first sentence) + 2006 depend on 2002+2009, so can't happen either

2008 requires an impossible level of international cooperation even after an implausible event (accidental explosion). Even if a city somewhere is accidentally destroyed by a nuke, can you really see NK, Israel, Pakistan, India, or China giving up their nukes voluntarily? And if they don't can you see Russia or the US doing so? And if Russia has nukes, can you see France?

2003 (second sentence) + 2005 + 2011 (second sentence) are long-shots, but not totally implausible... we need NASA to pour more resources into space probes

2001, and 2004 seem the most likely - but may I'm saying that about 2004, because I don't know enough about the technical challenges (but if you can clone a sheep.... you ought to be able to clone other mammals, right?)

 

[El Pip]

Assuming that the dates are doable, what some of the effects politically? Consider the following:

* Closing of coal mines is certainly going to mean that massive unemployment is going to take place c. 2004-2008. This is going to be hell on any American President or British Prime Minister...

Closing coal mines will not really be a problem in Britain; been there, done that and there's so little left as to be insignificant. Even in Germany where they throw billions at their coal mines to keep them going there's only ~50k people employed across the entire mining sector. That is not a major unemployment problem for a population of 80 odd million people. Indeed if the government has any sense they will only giving planning permission for the new funky reactors to be built next to the old coal mines and provide replacement jobs that way.

No idea about the US though, but even then surely the same solution applies?

 

[Mr_ Bondoc]

Closing coal mines will not really be a problem in Britain; been there, done that and there's so little left as to be insignificant. Even in Germany where they throw billions at their coal mines to keep them going there's only ~50k people employed across the entire mining sector. That is not a major unemployment problem for a population of 80 odd million people. Indeed if the government has any sense they will only giving planning permission for the new funky reactors to be built next to the old coal mines and provide replacement jobs that way.

No idea about the US though, but even then surely the same solution applies?

Actually, it can swing elections, with the states of Pennsylvania, Arizona, Colorado, Montana, Utah, Tennessee, Arkansas, Washington, et al. With presidential and gubernatorial races won by margins of less than 5%, there is no doubt of the threat it plays to many voters...

During the 2000 and 2004 election, Vice-President Dick Cheney helped win many of those states for Republicans, by claiming to support "clean coal"....

 

[asnys]

What exactly is the "low-temperature nuclear reaction" supposed to be? Is that some kind of cold fusion, or miniaturized fission, or what?

 

[Polish Eagle]

2001 will also require some alteration to either the laws of physics or the design of the Cassini mission. Launching in 1997, you can't reach Saturn by 2001, unless one of three things happen:

The laws of physics are different, so you need less fuel to enter Saturn orbit.

Or

Cassini-Huygens is just a fly-by mission ITTL, so it's just there for a few days and is then gone (like Voyager before it).

Or

Bigger rockets exist ITTL, so Cassini was able to carry more fuel to Saturn. Though the rocket imparted more kinetic energy onto Cassini at first, allowing it to reach Saturn faster (in the same time span that Voyager 1 did) and still brake into orbit. This would require rockets about twice as strong as the Titan IV booster used for Cassini-Huygens IOTL was.

 

[Michael B]

You would need a major change in why we run the world to meet his idea of a society. In both The Deep Range and Fountains of Paradise you have massive apparently public owned organisations with not a multinational company in sight. A sort of corporate civilisation.

 

[Color-Copycat]

I love Sir Arthur, but he was brutally, unrealistically optimistic half the time.

 

[Mr_ Bondoc]

What exactly is the "low-temperature nuclear reaction" supposed to be? Is that some kind of cold fusion, or miniaturized fission, or what?

Yes, it was Sir Arthur C. Clarke's belief that"cold fusion" was possible and that it was possible within our lifetimes...

 

[Tallest Skil]

Just before he passed away, Arthur C. Clarke made the following predictions.

He died in 2008, so I doubt anything but these:

2008: A city in a developing country is devastated by the accidental detonation of an atomic bomb in its armoury. After a brief debate in the United Nations, all nuclear weapons are destroyed.

2009: The first quantum generators (tapping space energy) are developed. Available in portable and household units, from a few kilowatts upwards, they can produce electricity indefinitely. Central power stations close down: the age of pylons ends. Electronic monitoring virtually phases out professional criminals.

2011: Largest living animal filmed: a 76-metre octopus in the Mariana Trench. By coincidence, even larger creatures are then discovered when the first robot probes drill through the ice of Europa.

Could have been made 'just' before he passed away. The rest sound like something he said in the mid 90's.

 

[Craigo]

Someone mentioned Fountains of Paradise, so when are the Bering Dam, Gibraltar Bridge, and Orbital Tower going to be built? I forget exactly when the novel was set.

 

[ChucK Y]

Even if by some change in the laws of nature 2002 came true, it would take several decades at least before enough electrical generating capacity could be built to replace coal-fired power plants. It takes more than a decade to plan, approve, and construct even one power plant.

 

[Mr_ Bondoc]

Could have been made 'just' before he passed away. The rest sound like something he said in the mid 90's.

Actually it was from his book Greetings, Carbon-Based Bipeds! (1999), which was the last published non-fiction work that he completed and saw published...

 

[Mako-Chan]

Back in 2008 there was a policy paper published by Dr. James E. Hansen recommending a full phase out of coal power plants by 2030. This isn't some crank scientist either he's widely known as one of the founders of modern climate change theories. So at minimum the tech level would need to be a good 25+ years ahead of OTL for it to be theoretically possibly by 2004...

http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/year/2008.html

 

[PMN1]

Assuming that the dates are doable, what some of the effects politically? Consider the following:

* Closing of coal mines is certainly going to mean that massive unemployment is going to take place c. 2004-2008. This is going to be hell on any American President or British Prime Minister...

*.

Not really for a British PM.......