What would it take for Britain to (most probably temporarily) agree to an armistice with Germany in 1940, while acknowledging German dominance of mainland Europe ?
i'm thinking either
1. the Germans give up way way waaay more (nigh ASB)
2. a different political situation in both leaderships (but what exactly?)
or
3. a series of catastrophic defeats for the British
Regarding 3), think something along the lines of
- far greater Royal Navy losses and lesser German ones, more merchant ships sunk (all as a result perfectly working German torpedoes)
- first BEF captured with minimal losses, second BEF severely mauled
- 2/3 of fighter reserve sent and lost in France
- a better show by the LW in the BoB
- Japanese, Thai, Iraqi, Iranian and Spanish DOW
- a hostile Vichy France and an America that has written them off
- large territorial losses in Africa/the Med/the Far East
- a large-ish naval defeat vs the Japanese
- an apparently imminent SeaLion
, or more (handwaving probability).
Deadline is the October 30th-November 4th period, when the last likely date for SeaLion (owing to the high tide) was determined by the British.
My thinking is that even under such circumstances, Churchill agreeing to an armistice would be unlikely. However, even if he does, it won't really do the nazis much good imho, since now it's highly unlikely that they'll achieve any kind of surprise in op. Barbarossa. Plus, as soon as they start fighting the USSR, the British would go back to a shooting war, no ?
What say you, oh wise members AH.com ?