Arkansas in a CS-Victory

[Wolfpaw]

The State of Arkansas passed its Ordinance of Secession on May 6, 1861.

The Union had control of the Eastern third of the state by the summer of '62, and the northwest was finally retaken in December. 1863 saw a series of botched Confederate attempts by Hindman and his conscripts to capture lost ground and hinder the Union's stranglehold on Vicksburg. September saw the Stars and Stripes raised above Little Rock and the Confederates scrambled to establish a rebel government in Hempsted County.

Despite these setbacks and Union penetration to Nevada County in the southwest of the state by April of 1864, the Confederacy managed to inflict harsh casualties on the Union. By May the Union army had retreated to Little Rock, but not after decimating Kirby Smith's forces in the withdrawal from Jenkin's Ferry.



Now, in any given CS-victory scenario, Union forces are going to be holding a significant portion of Arkansas. How is this going to play out in peace negotiations and post-War?

 

[BlondieBC]

It could be anywhere from the CSA gets all of Arkansas to the Union gets all of Arkansas to the cease fire line is the new border to the Arkansas river is the new border. You need a POD. How did the CSA win? Why? Who are the leaders? What is making the USA seek peace? etc.

 

[Blue Max]

I think the CSA is going to be very lucky just to survive an independence deal with the Union. They could well be told to take only what their troops control and that would be the victory they'd earn. The USA doesn't need to throw in additional concessions to get Confederate agreement, indeed, they benefit from simply pointing out that Confederate leaders are "Unreasonable" and therefore the war continues.


The Confederates have got to take just about any offer they can get; and I think that means that the Union will get to drive a hard bargain.


Agree with Blondie, though; you'd need the why and the how to know what that would be.

 

[Wolfpaw]

I'm open to any proposed POD at any time during the war.

I suppose we could go with Snake's No Lost Order/Super-Perryville scenario.

 

[Snake Featherston]

I think that the really interesting problem here is less Arkansas than Louisiana. The Union's occupied New Orleans in even a short-war scenario by virtue of simply going *around* as opposed to *through* Confederate forts, thus occupying the biggest city in the Confederacy. That's a very powerful negotiating advantage. It would also have some relevance to Arkansas and in particularly the Arkansas region near the Mississippi River.

 

[Reggie Bartlett]

If this was an 1862 victory the CSA is going to consider Arkansas non-negotiable. In that sense the Mississippi River counties are going to be returned to CS control.

1864 or so, it may fall either way.

 

[Johnrankins]

If this was an 1862 victory the CSA is going to consider Arkansas non-negotiable. In that sense the Mississippi River counties are going to be returned to CS control.

1864 or so, it may fall either way.

What the CSA wants doesn't matter, they will have to take what they can get.

 

[iddt3]

I assume at the very least the union isn't giving up New Orleans w/o guarantees of tariff free navigation of the Mississippi.

 

[Anaxagoras]

What the CSA wants doesn't matter, they will have to take what they can get.

That depends on the POD. If they end up occupying Washington City, for instance, they will have a significant bargaining chip.

 

[Johnrankins]

That depends on the POD. If they end up occupying Washington City, for instance, they will have a significant bargaining chip.

The CSA had about as much chance occupying DC as it did London. It just wouldn't happen.

 

[Reggie Bartlett]

What the CSA wants doesn't matter, they will have to take what they can get.

Sorry John "Corn Plantations" Rankins, but if the CSA can score a big victory in the dual Maryland-Kentucky campaigns of late 1862, what the CSA wants is going to matter a great deal. Especially with Britain and France throwing in on their part. With such a victory, Arkansas is in the bag.

 

[Trotsky]

Sorry John "Corn Plantations" Rankins, but if the CSA can score a big victory in the dual Maryland-Kentucky campaigns of late 1862, what the CSA wants is going to matter a great deal. Especially with Britain and France throwing in on their part. With such a victory, Arkansas is in the bag.

Or, Britain and France tell the Confederates to not push their luck.

 

[elkarlo]

That depends on the POD. If they end up occupying Washington City, for instance, they will have a significant bargaining chip.

Wonder if McClellan won the election for prez on his peace platform. Wonder what he was willing to let go? if the CSA doesn't do a Gettysburg campaign, and Vicksburg only is captured, you may see a lenient USA at the peace conference.

 

[Johnrankins]

Sorry John "Corn Plantations" Rankins, but if the CSA can score a big victory in the dual Maryland-Kentucky campaigns of late 1862, what the CSA wants is going to matter a great deal. Especially with Britain and France throwing in on their part. With such a victory, Arkansas is in the bag.

Sorry Reggie "The South let its plantations go to weed after the boll weevil hit" Bartlett but it doesn't unless it is willing to dicker. It won't win big in MD barring an ASB "Guns of the South" type scenario but KY is possible. England and France won't do Jack except maybe break the blockade as all they care about is the cotton.

 

[Johnrankins]

Wonder if McClellan won the election for prez on his peace platform. Wonder what he was willing to let go? if the CSA doesn't do a Gettysburg campaign, and Vicksburg only is captured, you may see a lenient USA at the peace conference.

Little Mac, for all his faults, was a WAR Democrat and isn't going to give the CSA ANYTHING he doesn't have to!

 

[Bexar]

Mayhaps Arkansaw is divided either North-South or viva which countied voted for secession and which didn't. It really deoends on how the CSA wins, when the peace is, and who gets involved. I am curious as to what a unionist state carved out of arkanzaw wuld be called.

 

[BlondieBC]

Mayhaps Arkansaw is divided either North-South or viva which countied voted for secession and which didn't. It really deoends on how the CSA wins, when the peace is, and who gets involved. I am curious as to what a unionist state carved out of arkanzaw wuld be called.

Ozark is a good guess. Osage is possible too.

 

[Reggie Bartlett]

Sorry Reggie "The South let its plantations go to weed after the boll weevil hit" Bartlett but it doesn't unless it is willing to dicker. It won't win big in MD barring an ASB "Guns of the South" type scenario but KY is possible. England and France won't do Jack except maybe break the blockade as all they care about is the cotton.

Never said Confederate plantations wouldn't go to hemp, but corn is never EVER going to be an adequate replacement crop for cotton in a post-Boll Weevil deep south.

The Maryland campaign is certainly not going to bring Maryland into the CSA, but a decisive bloody-nosing victory for the CS in Maryland is not out of reach.

Break the blockade yes, but the British and French recognising the CSA as a sovereign country pretty much ensures that the Union has failed in it's objective of keeping the rebellion down, hence "losing". With the CSA achieving independence through that end, it certainly will have some sway at the peace table.

 

[Johnrankins]

Never said Confederate plantations wouldn't go to hemp, but corn is never EVER going to be an adequate replacement crop for cotton in a post-Boll Weevil deep south.

The Maryland campaign is certainly not going to bring Maryland into the CSA, but a decisive bloody-nosing victory for the CS in Maryland is not out of reach.

Break the blockade yes, but the British and French recognising the CSA as a sovereign country pretty much ensures that the Union has failed in it's objective of keeping the rebellion down, hence "losing". With the CSA achieving independence through that end, it certainly will have some sway at the peace table.

You seemed to miss the point at the time and even now. I picked corn out a hat, it really didn't matter what the crop was as plantation owners did NOT let their land go to weed after the boll weevil hit and anything sharecroppers can grow slaves can grow as well which WAS the point. Winning will give them enough sway to keep whatever land its sitting on , no more and no less. If it wants any land in Arkansas it has to give up land somewhere else. The US is NOT simply going to GIVE it to them and the CSA has little but land that the US would be at all interested in.

 

[M79]

JohnRankins:

Arkansas is likely to stay Confederate unless we're talking a 1864 scenario, then it would likely be looking at a division of some kind. And if Britain and France intervene in 1862 *or* the Confederacy is bargaining from a position of strength, then not only do they keep Arkansas but they have claims elsewhere that might stay with them, especially Kentucky.