Argentine victory at Cisplatine War

Red Horse

What PODs would have Argentina win the Cisplatine War? And what will be its after-effects?
 
one effect would be that if Argentina kicks Brazil's butt, Pedro probably loses his crown. It wasn't all that secure to begin with. After that, Brazil probably splinters into a couple of countries.
 

Red Horse

I prefer a less curbstomping victory. Just Argentina reclaiming Uruguay would suffice.
 
by 'kicking butt', I would include outright victory. OTL, Brazil and Argentina basically fought to a tie. The compromise was an independent Uruguay. An Argentine victory would mean they defeat Brazilian forces and push them out of Uruguay, and may even expand the territory to reclaim/claim portions of Rio Grande do Sul. They're not going to wank their way to huge portions of Brazil or otherwise put a serious hurt on Brazil. But, IMO, simply outright winning in Uruguay qualifies as 'kicking butt' (glibly speaking). Fighting to a tie caused enough trouble for Pedro. Losing the war amps up the trouble big time.

To get to that scenario, you have to stabilize/unify Argentina from the early years of independence so that they're stronger at the time of conflict. Of course, if you do that, Argentina probably doesn't encourage Luso-Brazil to take Uruguay to begin with (to get rid of Artigas), so there would be no Cisplatine War.
 
Cisplatina

Actually Argentina won the war after winning Ituzaingo, the feat would come and eastern commander caudillo (Uruguayan) Rivera to win the Missions, with the collaboration of the Guarani people, and threaten vital areas of the Brazilian empire forcing the Emperor to ask the British mediation for an armistice. But there were factors that would prevent the exploitation of Argentina wins: growing domestic political dissent between autonomist and centralist, forced the early return of the army to suppress and the other the sea superiority of the Brazilian fleet prevented the recapture of the main Uruguayan cities: Montevideo (capital) and Colonia del besieged but not fenced and supplied by sea Sacramento. And finally the strong autonomist sentiment Oriental (Uruguay) and the British influence on their leaders who encouraged his independent projects as the best solution to the conflict with a state cap between Brazil and Argentina. The turning point would have to be above or very close of the war of independence and other leadership Cisplatin butterflies would eliminate war; but a war with Brazil is likely to happen even with a stronger and united Argentina it would be a support for the republican dissidents in the Brazilian Empire, not ok to forget that many of the brazilian military leaders in the Cisplatine war after war were the leaders of the Rio Grande of the farropeira revolution(independence rebels).
 
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Uruguay

Not impossible, but pretty difícil. En chess terms were tables between Brazil and Argentina. With the British friendly to the Emperor and their own interests in the free navigation of the La Plata estuary (gateway to the rich interior of South America) British in danger if an unfriendly State control him.
At the same time go against the will of the Oriental autonomy. a warrior and border people, subjecting difficult as the long years of war had shown their neighbors, was even more inviting destabilize its neighbors to force their union to one or other.
 
Another way would be having a strong Argentine fleet which could defeat the Brazilian fleet at sea. The war was basically won by Argentina on land, but the seas were controlled by the Brazilians and they could at any time blockade the La Plata and strangle the economy of Buenos Aires. The central government would have had to raise the taxes of the countryside, which didn't favour the war, and there would be massive political instability. That's the main reason the war was a tie.

If you somehow destroy the Brazilian Armada, either by Cochrane or by storm, and have the Argentinians attempt to blockade Rio instead, then you might see Uruguay joining Argentina. Of course, as said, that would likely mean Pedro I losing his crown three years earlier. If that would result in a split country or in a linger regency for Pedro II (born in 1825)... I simply don't know.
 

Tamandaré

Banned
Could enough brazilian reverses cause a paraguayan entrance into the conflict? If Uruguay is annexed, Paraguay is pretty much the next on the argentinean shit-list.
 
Could enough brazilian reverses cause a paraguayan entrance into the conflict? If Uruguay is annexed, Paraguay is pretty much the next on the argentinean shit-list.

Pretty much. But conquering Paraguay would be very complicated by Argentina.

Of course if it happens then we could see Argentina basically take Brazil's spot as the number 1 power in South America.

As for Brazil a loss would be crippling but not outright destructive. At most it would have a longer recovery with Pedro II's regency being dominated by troubles from the Nationalist rebels in the south( Although if the whole of Rio Grande do Sul is taken by Argentina maybe it butterflies the rebellion away?)
 
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