Argentina less restrained during the Falklands War

[Rickshaw]

As a counterpoint to the thread about the British restraint during the Falklands/Malvinas War, this thread can discuss what might have happened if the Argentines had been less restrained.

One alternative scenario I have had knocking around in my head for a long time is what if, as a point of departure, the Argentine Task Force which had captured the Falklands/Malvinas Islands had gone north to Ascension Island and raided there. Its objective would have been to wreck the runway at Wideawake. This would have delayed the British build up the necessary weeks which would have forced the Task Force to stop operations to retake South Georgia and the Falklands/Malvinas because of the onset of Winter in the South Atlantic. Weather is a factor which is too often overlooked in these discussions and was the real driver of the British timetable. If their operations had been delayed even by a few weeks, they would have found it impossible to keep ships on station and fly off aircraft for the extended time required to take the Islands in the middle of a South Atlantic winter.

The raid would have consisted of a landing (virtually unopposed) by the Argentine Marines and a determined effort to destroy the runway, hand standings and POL holding areas in and around the airfield. Of course, care would have had to be exercised not to disturb the American base on the Island but such a raid would have been possible while carving up the runways and hard standing with earth-moving Plant a surer of doing it than attempting to rely upon bombs from the small number of aircraft carried.

Of course, this assumes that the Veinticinco De Mayo was able to keep its engines going long enough to reach Ascension and return.

 

[SunilTanna]

It's pretty unlikely, because apart from the danger to Americans, the threat of RN SSNs, the general crapiness of most Argentine vessels, and the fact that British land and air reinforcements could be flown to Wideawake quite easily (unlike Stanley)... the Argentines simply weren't expecting a military response from the UK at all. They wouldn't have invaded the Falklands in the first place if they had been. The whole thing was supposedly to be a bloodless or near-bloodless coup, accepted by the international community as an anti-colonial limited operation, and modelled on the Indian invasion of Goa.


Once the war started, as mentioned in the other thread about British actions, the Argentines were less restrained from the get go through out the war. They were attempting sub and air attacks against the main British task force while the British were still hoping for a diplomatic solution and agonizing about sinking Argentine ships at all... and of course the lunatic Gibraltar thing later on.

 

[Rickshaw]

It's pretty unlikely, because apart from the danger to Americans, the threat of RN SSNs, the general crapiness of most Argentine vessels, and the fact that British land and air reinforcements could be flown to Wideawake quite easily (unlike Stanley)... the Argentines simply weren't expecting a military response from the UK at all. They wouldn't have invaded the Falklands in the first place if they had been. The whole thing was supposedly to be a bloodless or near-bloodless coup, accepted by the international community as an anti-colonial limited operation, and modelled on the Indian invasion of Goa.

I am well aware of that but as this is an alternative history forum, what if the Junta had realised that it would be better to make sure, rather than assume there would be no British response?

The British did not start reinforcing Wideawake until when, after the fall of Port Stanley?

Let us say for the sake of argument, the Argentines decide to mount simulteanous operations, one against the Falklands/Malvinas, the other against Ascension. The carrier goes to Ascension, rather than takes part in the Falklands/Malvinas operation (why should they need it, they are only faced by a platoon of Marines). Half the Argentine Marines go to Ascension as well, with an army engineers unit in support. Both arrive simultaneously. The Marines storm ashore and capture both. After a few days on Ascension, amusing themselves, they leave. The island's airfield and other facilities are in complete disrepair.

 

[SunilTanna]

You actually need to move the PoD back quite a while, before the scrap metal dealers and all that stuff, because the Argentines weren't even planning to invade when they did. A coordinated operation of this type is not possible given a last minute invasion (some would probably argue that a coordinated operation of this type is dubious for Argentina at all given how poor and disunited their senior leadership turned out to be).

You also have the problem that the Argentine plans are more likely to be discovered as their ancient and ill-maintained carrier slowly limps across the South Atlantic, allowing a British response earlier, mostl likely sending an SSN earlier... maybe the carrier gets a torpedo on the way home afterwards.

And the Argentines have just pissed off the US big time, since the US also uses the airbase, including as an emergency shuttle landing strip. No question of trying to be honest broker or tilting one way or the other.

And they've probably also guaranteed the UN is not be sympathetic (the Argentines actually thought they'd get support from others at the UN).

 

[Rickshaw]

You actually need to move the PoD back quite a while, before the scrap metal dealers and all that stuff, because the Argentines weren't even planning to invade when they did. A coordinated operation of this type is not possible given a last minute invasion (some would probably argue that a coordinated operation of this type is dubious for Argentina at all given how poor and disunited their senior leadership turned out to be).

Yes, that could represent a problem but a not insurmountable one.

You also have the problem that the Argentine plans are more likely to be discovered as their ancient and ill-maintained carrier slowly limps across the South Atlantic, allowing a British response earlier, mostl likely sending an SSN earlier... maybe the carrier gets a torpedo on the way home afterwards.

So what if it is discovered? Argentina is at peace with everybody, including the UK. The excuse that the Vincente de Mayo was on a peacetime training cruise in the mid-Atlantic would have excited no one.

And the Argentines have just pissed off the US big time, since the US also uses the airbase, including as an emergency shuttle landing strip. No question of trying to be honest broker or tilting one way or the other.

The US was never going to be an "honest broker". The "Special Relationship" was deemed to be of more importance than its minor alliance with Argentina. The lost of Wideawake as an emergency landing strip for the Space Shuttle is of minor importance. As long as the US ELINT station is untouched, there is no casis belli for US direct involvement.

And they've probably also guaranteed the UN is not be sympathetic (the Argentines actually thought they'd get support from others at the UN).

Again, a pipedream which was never going to happen. One realistic appraisal is all it takes to get rid of that...

 

[SunilTanna]

The US doesn't need to be directly involved in combat. They just need to provide resupply to the British, or encourage somebody else too.

If the Argentines attack Ascension, I expect they would. But even if the US doesn't help in this way, the UK itself would try harder to lean on some other country to provide them a base in the region. I'd imagine they would find somebody given a stronger diplomatic effort and more worldwide sympathy to the UK.

That aside I wouldn't discount the SSN threat. If dispatched early enough because of intelligence (sigint? rumours in Argentina if more people know?) of a potential threat the SSN will be waiting.

Even if no SSN waiting, they have a good chance of catching Argentine ships on the way home, given how much faster they were than anything in the Argentine fleet. (See e.g. Hector Bonzo's comments for instance - he basically knew he was defenceless against SSNs because they could attack from any angle, including over-taking him from behind, and then come round for a frontal attack)

 

[Derek Pullem]

Sorry - the airfield at the time was a US operated asset. Even the British had to give a week's notice of any incoming flights (not during the war obviously)

http://www.naval-history.net/FpxAAscension.htm#19

If a bunch of Argentine marines turned up and tried to damage it there would be a conflict situation with US air force personnel.

That is something Argentina does not want to provoke.

Besides if an Argentine naval task force just happened to be cruising a few miles off Ascension Island I suspect both the British and Americans would be asking some difficult questions

 

[Rickshaw]

Sorry - the airfield at the time was a US operated asset. Even the British had to give a week's notice of any incoming flights (not during the war obviously)

http://www.naval-history.net/FpxAAscension.htm#19

If a bunch of Argentine marines turned up and tried to damage it there would be a conflict situation with US air force personnel.

Who would be politely asked to move aside. If they failed to, then they would suffer the consequences. Afterall, Ascension is British territory, the airbase is British owned, even if leased to the US. The Argentines might hesitate but I'd suggest not overly long.

That is something Argentina does not want to provoke.

Besides if an Argentine naval task force just happened to be cruising a few miles off Ascension Island I suspect both the British and Americans would be asking some difficult questions

Why? It doesn't have to be cruising a "few miles off" the island. It could be over a hundred miles away when it starts its move towards the island, arriving in the wee small hours of the next day. They would surprise everybody.

The USAF personnel would nearly all be asleep. They would wake to find themselves surrounded by Argentine Marines. Of course, they wouldn't commit the same war crime they did when they used chemical weapons on the barracks of the Royal Marines in Port Stanley...

 

[TheMann]

Yes, that could represent a problem but a not insurmountable one.

This is true, but if Argentina was planning an invasion act they would have been planning it long before, keeping every Navy unit it could get in service, training more, additional purchases of Super Etendards and Exocets, ASW operations exercises (the Argentine Navy HAD to know that their biggest issue in naval terms was British SSNs), et cetera. They were horribly unprepared, simple as that, and preparing for it would probably raise a few questions to others, and the Chileans in particular would start getting jittery at the prospect of a fully tooled-up Argentine military, thinking that the Argentines would be coming after them.

So what if it is discovered? Argentina is at peace with everybody, including the UK. The excuse that the Vincente de Mayo was on a peacetime training cruise in the mid-Atlantic would have excited no one.

It would have raised plenty of questions, though. Veinticinco de Mayo usually worked around home and off Argentina. If they wanted a cover, they could have asked Brazil to allow them to have the carrier join in an exercise off of northeastern Brazil. That would have made the UK a lot less jittery.

The US was never going to be an "honest broker". The "Special Relationship" was deemed to be of more importance than its minor alliance with Argentina. The lost of Wideawake as an emergency landing strip for the Space Shuttle is of minor importance. As long as the US ELINT station is untouched, there is no casis belli for US direct involvement.

This IS Reagan we're talking about here, so let's not jump to conclusions too fast. Reagan and Thatcher were good friends and allies, and IOTL the US Navy WAS preparing to go help the Royal Navy. If the Argentines attack any of the key facilities, the airfield included, the chances of the US getting involved go up dramatically, and if they get involved, game over.

If we're looking for a better military confrontation, the first point is to expand the Naval abilities - Argentina scrapped the Nueve de Julio, the Belgrano's sister ship, in 1978, and two destroyers went to the scrapper in 1980 and a submarine went there in 1981. The four MEKO 360 destroyers entered service in 1983-84, and Argentina could have ordered the ships earlier, thus easily allowing all four to be there for a war in mid-1982, as well as speeding up the TR-1700 class subs, which arrived in 1984. If all of this is there and spun up, the Argentines would have the option of striking Ascension Island, but they'd better hope the US stays out of it.

Then, you'd have to get the job right of ASW operations, making sure the carrier and both cruisers stay safe. Easier said than done against RN SSNs, but the TR-1700s and Type 209s, properly spun up, could be helpful here.

Then you need, in addition to the operation against Ascension, they would be wise to extend the runway at Port Stanley, thus allowing their Mirage IIIs, Neshers, A-4s and Super Etendards to fly from there. If we're thinking longer-term, getting a few ex-Aerolineas Argentinas 707s and converting them to tankers would be a big help, allowing much greater patrol range for the fighters, assuming you also got all of your airplanes converted to have aerial refueling. Simply working up would do much to make it easier for the Argentines to be successful.

 

[Thande]

I don't think the Argentines could have done much more than they did OTL...unless perhaps for some reason they could treat Chile as not a threat and leave that flank unguarded.

 

[SunilTanna]

Super-coordinated, well-planned Argentine military, led by intelligent on-the-ball leaders?

The entire Argentine military had no real institutional memory or experience of fighting wars... and they're not going to get that over-night or come out the gate as the best. Let's remember that until that point their leadership's main experience and institutional memory was in murdering civilians and over-throwing elected governments.

I actually find it surprising they did as well as they did. Their airforce at least was revealed to be pretty ballsy, even if borderline incompetent in terms of planning and so forth.

 

[SunilTanna]

I don't think the Argentines could have done much more than they did OTL...unless perhaps for some reason they could treat Chile as not a threat and leave that flank unguarded.

I doubt the F-86s the pulled out of storage to defend the Chilean border would have helped much in the Falklands.

Any ground troops on the Chilean border that were sent to the Falklands would have just ended up as more half-starving thoroughly drenched POWs.

 

[Derek Pullem]

Who would be politely asked to move aside. If they failed to, then they would suffer the consequences. Afterall, Ascension is British territory, the airbase is British owned, even if leased to the US. The Argentines might hesitate but I'd suggest not overly long.




Why? It doesn't have to be cruising a "few miles off" the island. It could be over a hundred miles away when it starts its move towards the island, arriving in the wee small hours of the next day. They would surprise everybody.

The USAF personnel would nearly all be asleep. They would wake to find themselves surrounded by Argentine Marines. Of course, they wouldn't commit the same war crime they did when they used chemical weapons on the barracks of the Royal Marines in Port Stanley...

ASB

Even a hundred miles away would raise a few eyebrows. I doubt if the Argentine fleet would manage much more than 20 kns so that 5 hours steaming then offload the small boats and land on the Island.

Helicopters? They didn't use them in the main invasion. Even if they did an attempt to launch aircraft at an airfield / ELINT station might just be picked up by the radar, don't you think?

And you really think pissing off the American public (who would be mightily angry at the rough treatment of American personnel and assets) is going help Argentina's cause?

 

[Cockroach]

Another factor to consider is that while the Falklands can possibly be passed off by Argentina to retake what is theirs (if you accept the rather dodgy Argentine claim...) a strike at Ascension Island is rather more blatant offensive action and harder to justify to the world at large... which means that other nations are liable to be a lot more pro-Brtish than OTL and so may actually counteract the military gains.

 

[Rickshaw]

ASB
And you really think pissing off the American public (who would be mightily angry at the rough treatment of American personnel and assets) is going help Argentina's cause?

The American public tolerated a great worse at the hands of other nations in the same time period. We didn't see the US launching a war to free hostages in Iran, Lebanon, onboard cruise ships, in aircraft. The US was in 1982 very much in the grip of the malaise that accompanied the loss and defeat in Vietnam. It wasn't until they found someone they could defeat easily in 1983 that the US Government starts to throw it off.

As to whether or not annoying the American public will help the Argentine cause should be weighed against whether or not this would help the Argentines win the war, don't you think?

 

[Rickshaw]

Another factor to consider is that while the Falklands can possibly be passed off by Argentina to retake what is theirs (if you accept the rather dodgy Argentine claim...) a strike at Ascension Island is rather more blatant offensive action and harder to justify to the world at large... which means that other nations are liable to be a lot more pro-Brtish than OTL and so may actually counteract the military gains.

Possibly. It could also have been sold as an ingenious military stratagem, which may gain them far more admiration and hence sympathy - the plucky South Americans striking against the wicked imperialist British!

Remember, both the Falklands/Malvinas and Ascension were British Imperial Possessions. A lot of good PR could be made out of that.

 

[Rickshaw]

I doubt the F-86s the pulled out of storage to defend the Chilean border would have helped much in the Falklands.

Any ground troops on the Chilean border that were sent to the Falklands would have just ended up as more half-starving thoroughly drenched POWs.

Not quite. The Argentines who were sent to garrison the islands were largely conscripts with a leavening of special forces. The best Argentine troops were kept on the mainland, to indeed defend against a possible Chiliean attack. Remember, Argentina and Chile had been having an on-again, off-again border dispute for years before the Falklands/Malvinas. Sending regular troops to the Falklands/Malvinas would have made a "close run thing" even more close run.

 

[Rickshaw]

Super-coordinated, well-planned Argentine military, led by intelligent on-the-ball leaders?

I agree, unlikely but really, not completely impossible. All it needed was a better Junta...

 

[SunilTanna]

Several people have now provided reasons why such an attack on Ascension, requires multiple PODs, and is even then very unlikely, very risky both politically and militarily, and possibly beyond the Argentine navy's capabilities... but sure if we ignore all that, I'm sure if the Argentines could have pulled it off, and won the war.

Or even then not... If more of the world is pissed off at Argentina, the British either get more bases elsewhere, or aren't faced with a choice between acting quickly or accepting a fait accompli.

Good luck to Argentina, if the British have say 7 or 8 months preparation to retake the islands (they attack after the Winter) instead of less than 1 month.

 

[Thande]

Another factor to consider is that while the Falklands can possibly be passed off by Argentina to retake what is theirs (if you accept the rather dodgy Argentine claim...) a strike at Ascension Island is rather more blatant offensive action and harder to justify to the world at large...

Yeah, but you could say the same about South Georgia in OTL.