Argentina has a chain of strong civilian goverments post ww2

maverick

Banned
Hmmm...could we move this to the ASB forum?

Well, seriously...

Option A: eliminate Peron and Peronism...
Option B: Avoid the military coup of 1943, thus preventing the rise of Peron...the conservative Robustiano Patron Costa becomes President in 1944, until 1950, probably declares war upon Germany without sending troops in early 1945 or late 1944...gets more British and American support...

Or maybe not...problem with Argentinean history is that it is unpredictable...
 
removing Peronism would butterfly away the '55 coup, but wouldn't remove the anticomunism in the armed forces nor would avoid their politization and thier idea of being "the moral guardians of the nation".
You'll need to - perhaps - go further into the past and prevent the revolutions led by the Radical Party ("Revolución del Parque" IIRC) and keep the armed forces completely out of politics since that time. And later on in the cold war it would help to avoid French and American military consultants and trainers, but I don't see how. Have the British instead of Germans be contracted to modernize the army in the early 20th Century? Therefore having an anglophile instead of germanophile army later on and hence they continue to train mainly with British armed forces instead after WWII? Of course, that might not help at all anyways.
 
Juanml82's proposals would probably guarantee that there aren't any military interventions at all. But I don't think a Pod so far back is absolutely necesary to achieve this.

I think the best possibility is to have President Ortiz (1938-1940) not forced to resign in 1940 due to his diabethes. He was a real democrat (not in the American sense), unlike his vice-president, and he was pro-allies.With him in office, Argentina could probably have entered the war much earlier on the allies side. And, if he reforms the electoral system, as he had planned, there wouldn't be a large group of discontents unable to express themselves pollitically. The government elected in 1944 would have been a democratically elected civilian one, who would have benefited from a favourable economic situation (post-WWII) and who would have enjoyed international support for his possition during WWII.

I'd add to this coctel a failed nationalist military coup, or a (briefly) succesfull one, but whose liders are so inept and uncharismatic that they ruin everything and are forced to resign quicky, as this things would severely undermine the prestige of the proponens of a military government.

With all this, you'll probably get a pretty stable Argentina for the second half of the XX century. Of course, some military might still by paranoid and see communists in every civilian government that leans slightly to the left. But I don't think this would be something that would inevitably lead to a coup. If the economy is going more or less well, and the necesary social reforms are done gradually, by a democratic government, I don't think this military men would present a serious opposition. A few right wing members of the military might object these governments, but they'll be a very small minority. Some leftists might form a guerilla group in the seventies, as it happened in Italy; but, if the country is democratic and is going rather well, they would have a very small support, and would be easily defeated, by legal means.
 
However, what I wonder is, whatever the Pod we chose, HOW would this civilian led Argentina look like? What would have been the shape of the country if all the governments after WWII would have been civilian, stable and democratic?

Of course, nothing guarantees that Argentina would be prosperous in this scenario. But assuming it did, how would it be???

For me, the economic part is easier to imagine. It would probably follow the path of Australia: transition from agriculture to industrialization during the war, and transition from industry to the services sector by the late XXth century.

Socially, it would probably have high levels of education and would resemble Europe in many of its practice.

Pollitically...no idea. But quite likely a bit unstable and chaotic, resembling more to Italy than to Australia or Canada.

Culturally, it's harder to predict. Probably it would still be the strange mix that it's now, with the Hispanic and Southern European (Italian, mainly) influences being the most influencial. But we have to take into consideration that, if the country is prosperous, there would probably be much more immigrants from South America (Paraguay, Bolivia, Peru and Chile) and Asia (China, taiwan, Corea) than IOTL. And probably also smaller waves of immigrants from the Middle East and Subsharan Africa (there are a few African immigrants in Buenos Aires nowadays). We might see a bigger Chinatown in Belgrano, and the number of Muslims in the country might be higher. What would result of all this,... well, who knows.

And, finally, what about the international position this Argentina would assume? I think it wouldn't be "hostile" to the US, but wouldn't be afraid of pointing out loudly the differences it has with them on several "issues", such as, which is the best way of handling communists guerrilla movements. Who knows, maybe the US would still consider Argentina an unreliable ally, and would favour Brazil or Chile instead.
 

maverick

Banned
(briefly) succesfull one, but whose liders are so inept and uncharismatic that they ruin everything and are forced to resign quicky, as this things would severely undermine the prestige of the proponens of a military government.

I think we've been through that a couple of times...1962 and 1943 come to mine...

Actually, I thought that Ortiz had died and not resigned, but i've been too busy investigating British and German politics for my current TLs, so I may remember that incorrectly

As to Juan Manuel's ideas of a German influenced Military (like Chile if memory serves me right) is pretty interested, but the level of military involvement in the governmtent started with the growing influence of the army after the war against Paraguay and the conquest of the Desert...

Now, both keeping Ortiz healthy and in power, and preventing the coup of 1943 (the second one historically, but the first in which the real army actually intervened) would seem as the best PODs...unless we can discredit military rule earlier, preferably before the coup of 1930, but that might be a little more difficult...(but the topic of one of my planned Argentinean TLs)
 
I think we've been through that a couple of times...1962 and 1943 come to mine...

yes, that's true. I think we don't learn easily:( That's why we keep repeating our mistakes again and again.

Actually, I thought that Ortiz had died and not resigned, but i've been too busy investigating British and German politics for my current TLs, so I may remember that incorrectly

He resigned in august 1940, and died in 1942. I think I read somewhere that, had his wife not died in the late 1930s, she would have kept his diet under watch, and thus, his diabethes wouldn't have become so serious so as to forced him to resign. Not sure if that's possible, medically speaking
 
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