Are multiple industrial revolutions in different countries/regions possible?

Like, could Western Europe industrialize as OTL, but China also industrializes without causing too many butterflies, until the 19th century.
 
Like, could Western Europe industrialize as OTL, but China also industrializes without causing too many butterflies, until the 19th century.

Certainly. Ming China had an extensive free market trading system that could propel itself to industrialization (though Song China was much closer to industrialization).
 
Certainly. Ming China had an extensive free market trading system that could propel itself to industrialization (though Song China was much closer to industrialization).
I think the Ming can industrialize, but am doubtful if the Ming could capitalize on it. The Ming was amazingly corrupt and had mediocre Emperors. Moreover, one classic Ming pro-conserveative palace coup, and poof, all industrialists have been killed by the Jinyiwei. The Ming would need some luck to make their industrialization a successful one.
 

missouribob

Banned
Yes but it is highly unlikely it seems. For an industrial revolution to occur argicultrual surpluses have to increase to feed the new urban workers. The problem is that that period of transition is painful because you'll have in China for example millions of peasants flocking to the cities. Even today the Chinese state tries to limit internal migration. My thoughts are that in China at least any early industrialization effort would fall apart politically due to that migration and the potential for unrest that is brings. Also from my understanding the Chinese never industrialized because the labor was so cheap business owners had no need to. What is it the high equilibrium trap?
 
Yes but it is highly unlikely it seems. For an industrial revolution to occur argicultrual surpluses have to increase to feed the new urban workers. The problem is that that period of transition is painful because you'll have in China for example millions of peasants flocking to the cities. Even today the Chinese state tries to limit internal migration. My thoughts are that in China at least any early industrialization effort would fall apart politically due to that migration and the potential for unrest that is brings. Also from my understanding the Chinese never industrialized because the labor was so cheap business owners had no need to. What is it the high equilibrium trap?

If you get land reform to make sure peasants actually have land and don't get displaced so easily, you can potentially limit the numbers (a little) moving to the cities.
 

missouribob

Banned
If you get land reform to make sure peasants actually have land and don't get displaced so easily, you can potentially limit the numbers (a little) moving to the cities.
Right but that's if you get land reform. That is a major undertaking and it may not be effective. Also I'm pretty sure the elites would have issue with giving up their wealth to make sure the peasantry is OK. And remember in the one case example we have of an industrial revolution the peasants were pushed off their land in mass by the enclosure act. I don't think it's likely Chinese peasants will get any better treatment.
 
I truly love this discussion. My wonder is this: European countries were small, restricted, resource-poor in comparison to China. If this is what created the necessary drive toward industrialization in Europe, birthing more "modern" social and political philosophies, what would have had to have happened in the Song Dynasty to have sparked an Eastern Renaissance (around 1000 c.e.) followed by an Eastern Industrial Revolution (around 1300 c.e.)? Chinese society is not a monolith! Many interesting Interest Groups have always existed within it!
 
Eastern Renaissance (around 1000 c.e.)
So Neo-Confucianism?

Basically you are working within an extremely, extremely Eurocentric paradigm. The Renaissance exists only in Europe. They are dependent on European history, just as the Neo-Confucian movement exists only in China and Islamism is dependent on Islam. An area that does not have European history ergo cannot have a Renaissance. The concept is just simply meaningless outside (Western) Europe.

The IR is not dependent on the Renaissance. It is mainly about economic institutions.
 
So Neo-Confucianism?

Basically you are working within an extremely, extremely Eurocentric paradigm. The Renaissance exists only in Europe. They are dependent on European history, just as the Neo-Confucian movement exists only in China and Islamism is dependent on Islam. An area that does not have European history ergo cannot have a Renaissance. The concept is just simply meaningless outside (Western) Europe.

The IR is not dependent on the Renaissance. It is mainly about economic institutions.

By the way, Jack Goody disagrees. Not that I buy wholly into his argument, but noting this for completeness.
 

missouribob

Banned
what would have had to have happened in the Song Dynasty to have sparked an Eastern Renaissance (around 1000 c.e.) followed by an Eastern Industrial Revolution (around 1300 c.e.)? Chinese society is not a monolith! Many interesting Interest Groups have always existed within it!

The Song had many issues keeping them from industrializing. For a start they need to keep the north so that they can keep their access to easy coal and that requires a POD that has the Song not drive talent from their military and have the military be the lowest caste in society. Just keeping the Northern Song should butterfly Genghis Khan and the Mongols but then you have to create a reason the Song Empire could escape the high income trap. I've yet to see a reason the Song would. Then even if you could do that you'd have to have a Song Empire that develops a scientific method AND finds something for all the roaming peasants from agricultural productivity increases to do.

If you can somehow plausibly create a Song Empire that can do all that then congrats! You've started industrialization hundreds of years earlier.
 
The Song had many issues keeping them from industrializing. For a start they need to keep the north so that they can keep their access to easy coal and that requires a POD that has the Song not drive talent from their military and have the military be the lowest caste in society. Just keeping the Northern Song should butterfly Genghis Khan and the Mongols but then you have to create a reason the Song Empire could escape the high income trap. I've yet to see a reason the Song would. Then even if you could do that you'd have to have a Song Empire that develops a scientific method AND finds something for all the roaming peasants from agricultural productivity increases to do.

If you can somehow plausibly create a Song Empire that can do all that then congrats! You've started industrialization hundreds of years earlier.
That's actually pretty easy. Just make the Song Emperors not be amazingly paranoid about their own generals, then the Song would have kept the North. Combine that with the Song having to develop technology to counter the cavalry tactics of Manchus and Mongols, you've created an empire that will go on to conquer the world.
Or we could have a general (eg Yue Fei) conquer the North before anyone can stop him (a successful reconquest might make the Emperors understand they probably didn't have to be so paranoid of their generals), then keep the Northerners a credible threat, which will lead to technologies like firearms and cannons much more important in the Song army to counter heavy calvary, finally leading to technological development finally becoming important in medieval China.
 
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missouribob

Banned
That's actually pretty easy. Just make the Song Emperors not be amazingly paranoid about their own generals, then the Song would have kept the North. Combine that with the Song having to develop technology to counter the cavalry tactics of Manchus and Mongols, you've created an empire that will go on to conquer the world.
Or we could have a general (eg Yue Fei) conquer the North before anyone can stop him (a successful reconquest might make the Emperors understand they probably didn't have to be so paranoid of their generals), then keep the Northerners a credible threat, which will lead to technologies like firearms and cannons much more important in the Song army to counter heavy calvary, finally leading to technological development finally becoming important in medieval China.
Given that the Song were paranoid of their Generals even in the face of the mongols I'm not sure how "easy" that is. I don't see how a war to reclaim the north would do that given that successfully holding off the mongols for 50+ years didn't. Also gunpowder doesn't equal industrialization. A Song Empire industrailizing is not ASB but it is pretty close.
 
The Song had many issues keeping them from industrializing. For a start they need to keep the north so that they can keep their access to easy coal and that requires a POD that has the Song not drive talent from their military and have the military be the lowest caste in society. Just keeping the Northern Song should butterfly Genghis Khan and the Mongols but then you have to create a reason the Song Empire could escape the high income trap. I've yet to see a reason the Song would. Then even if you could do that you'd have to have a Song Empire that develops a scientifically AND finds something for all the roaming peasants from agricultural productivity increases to do.

If you can somehow plausibly create a Song Empire that can do all that then congrats! You've started industrialization hundreds of years earlier.
Dear Xianfeng Emperor and Missouribob,

How are you? How was your Summer? How are the Xianfeng Empresss and Mrs. Missouribob? Well, my college education ($75,000 est.) has finally paid off. Anyhow here's the thing: when did the Middle Kingdom ever give two schillings over what was "easy"?; Was the Great Wall easy? And how is paranoia so hard to create? It's an attitude adjustment, that's all. Weeks ago, I basically suggested to Darthfanta and friends that the Song had the material capital, the human capital, and the geopolitical awareness to create an AD 1000 equivalent of the CIA combined with DARPA combined with Civil Defense. And that ALONE might have led to China's domination of the World. I know; it sounds crazy; but I am not wrong and I challenge ANY USER to disprove me. I assert: the Song were MODERN before modern was cool, and bit the the dust ONLY because Temujin the Mongol (poor boy) was one of the Six Greatest Conquerors of history and set up his grandson Kublai for success.
 
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There could be lots. It's like how, in theory, the Indus Valley Civilization, with it's assembly lines and extensive trade, could have had a little industrial boom at some point. It's like how the Irish, Malians, Norse, etc all made it to the Americas.

I know this is a question that is utter heresy on an Alternate History site, but the real question is, why would it matter? Let's look at the Song. Why would it matter even if there was a Shanghai-Guandong railroad or even if the nation was a week away from total industrial boom if the Mongols would just use the metal for scrap? It would all have to deal with when and where.
 
To get an industrial revolution, you need a merchant/educated class with economic interests, a sizable middle class, some understanding of property rights to protect the inventors, and a reasonable level of private capital to spur development. And you need enough internal stability/lack of external threats for people to be able to act on their whims rather than producing swords or storming breaches. There are a lot of things that need to go right for it to happen and only a few things to go wrong to sabotage it.
 
Potatoes are going to be a big help anywhere. They're very efficient in terms of land and labor (rice is very efficient in terms of land, labor not so much) and would be the easiest way to improve agricultural productivity enough to help the countryside feed the cities.

And then everyone can eat 감자탕 mmmmmm 감자탕
 
There could be lots. It's like how, in theory, the Indus Valley Civilization, with it's assembly lines and extensive trade, could have had a little industrial boom at some point. It's like how the Irish, Malians, Norse, etc all made it to the Americas.

I know this is a question that is utter heresy on an Alternate History site, but the real question is, why would it matter? Let's look at the Song. Why would it matter even if there was a Shanghai-Guandong railroad or even if the nation was a week away from total industrial boom if the Mongols would just use the metal for scrap? It would all have to deal with when and where.

A week for the for the Song to surpass 1700 Europe? Tell me more.
 
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