Are butterflies unavoidable?

[Oddball]

If you change periferical things, are changes in OTL unavoidable?

I often see comments about timelines that goes like "borders in Africa are same as OTL, and I doubt that."

I mean; when I sit and ponder, I like to interfere with smal events or periferical from the "big" world events. This also have to do with the fact that Im too lazy to work out "everything." Sometimes I feel like leting OTL flow more or less like it did and just nibble at it.

So my question are like the title:

Are butterflies unavoidable? And if they are, to what extent?

 

[Nik]

2nd Order CounterFactuals ??

Cultures usually grow around routes such as rivers. Then imperialists & politicians come along and divide up the map along handy physical landmarks such as rivers...

So, like on the ME forum, modern frontiers tend to be arbitrary...

Trick is to find a back-history for the same result, or unwind the modern borders to the historical, pre-imperialist lines.

Nik

 

[Grey Wolf]

I personally believe butterflies to be a misconstrued term as it implies that a tiny change will have a major effect. I personally believe that a tiny change will in all likelihood result in other tiny changes. I do not think that History as a procession can so easily be knocked off course. Of course, I accept that it CAN happen - it is POSSIBLE, but overwhelmingly it is not probable. I know I have had several arguments with proponents of the opposite viewpoint here and that I completely fail to comprehend their point of view, so I apologise in advance for any obtuseness on my part.

The corollary however holds true - a major change will beget major changes. IMHO this is where most complaints about timelines and maps etc really originate. Basically, it looks like laziness on the part of the author if he ends up with OTL results without their OTL causes ever having been in play.

The way this works though probably accords with your point of view. In writing an ATL I usually leave everything alone until the POD and its major effects impact upon it. For example, in the Plethora of Princes timeline I am currently posting, the British weakness throughout the 1830s only comes into play elsewhere when in OTL British strength had an effect - eg in the Eastern Med against Mohammed Ali, or in the peaceful end to the Aroostook War or in the British power in Buenos Ayres at the time. Absent the role of the British and these events all spin off differently. Having them fail to do so would be unrealistic and invalidate the ATL in my eyes.

Grey Wolf

 

[Johnestauffer]

I don't know what qualifies as major vs. minor, but it seems that minor events could have significant impact. If someone doesn't attend the right school they may not make the right contacts and in time will not be in a position to take a leadership role. And so on. Having the right or wrong person in a particular job/office often is what changes events.
It may take longer to impact history, but yes the little changes ripple outward. Each little change brings on new little changes until the cumulative effect is major.

 

[Grey Wolf]

I don't know what qualifies as major vs. minor, but it seems that minor events could have significant impact. If someone doesn't attend the right school they may not make the right contacts and in time will not be in a position to take a leadership role. And so on. Having the right or wrong person in a particular job/office often is what changes events.
It may take longer to impact history, but yes the little changes ripple outward. Each little change brings on new little changes until the cumulative effect is major.

I knew I was going to run into this

Its POSSIBLE but its not PROBABLE

Of course its important if the person really DID become important in OTL and you've just cut the ground out from under his feet, but in terms of the numbers of people at school, or even the numbers of priveleged toffs, the ones who make it are a minority.

Posh Lord Blah-Blah of Bobble-Fobble who never went to School X, actually getting in instead of screwing up the entrance exam 9 times out of 10 will make very little difference to the major course of history

Grey Wolf

 

[Nik]

Chaos theory ?

Other side of 'butterflies' is that they only get noticed when they touch a nerve...

ACW's 'lost order' ?? Crimean 'Charge of Light Brigade' ? Churchill's Tram ? The Hitler Plot briefcase alignment ? Blumlein's Crash ? The Japanese diplomats who could not type, which delayed their Declaration of War until AFTER Pearl Harbour strike ??

Set against them are hundreds of thousands of 'Grunts' and millions of civilians whose personal contributions are mere footnotes...

Find that point of leverage, then TILT.

 

[Oddball]

I do not think that History as a procession can so easily be knocked off course. Of course, I accept that it CAN happen - it is POSSIBLE, but overwhelmingly it is not probable.

Good, cause this is how I feel about it too

What Im "conserned" about is the claim that if you change something, you must change all. This is mainly because I like to fiddle with "small" changes and see if I can "fit" it into OTL.

Ofcourse there is an interesting discussion of what is a minor POD and what is a major POD, but I guess it comes down to the writers argumentative skill then...

 

[aktarian]

It's also important to consider time after POD.

Take for instance South wins ACW. OK, biggest and most immediate impact is in CSA and US. People, who were killed live, people who met don't and vice versa...

Less immediate and smaller are impacts on countries further away. OK, British and french policies change. But people not so much. People who met otherwise meet same etc. There are changes of course. Trade with CSA etc...

Even smaller are effects in China. They go their lives as in OTL. and why shouldn't they? Or if you want to go further take Mongolia. I think it's safe to say Mongolians will go same route as in OTL. Only when outside events affect their little piece of land will they change. Which might be many decades later.

Politics might change (and for countries do) but ordinary people don't. Even politicians nott hat much.

 

[Chrispi]

For want of a nail

the shoe was lost.
For want of a shoe
the horse was lost.
For want of a horse
the rider was lost.
For want of a rider
the battle was lost.
For want of a battle
the kingdom was lost.
And all for the want
of a horseshoe nail.