Archimedes Invents Gunpowder

Here's the bottom line question - are you going to tell me the empire grew briefly and then shrank longterm on the pattern I described while Republican Rome had century after century mostly expanding, all for mostly EXTERNAL reasons? I want to see your answer to that big question, not about details or problems like econ-crashes and plagues that both Republic and Empire faced. You've been blowing smoke, I say, to keep from looking at where the Empire's problems came from.


While we're at it, carlton, maybe you could answer that same question I posed Cornelius.

In so many words, no. But if you can, that's quite an extraordinary claim and I'm sure the academic community worldwide would like to hear from you since they haven't figured it out yet. You make it sound rather obvious, I must say.

Let's look at the questoin in a little more detail, though. First, you argue that the legion was not very well suited to wiinning wars after about the first century AD while it was brilliant at it in the centurioes before. You could say the same thing about the army. I mean, look at the British Empire: The army could walk all over India in the 1790s and ruled the battlefields all over the world in 1850, and as late as 1900, while it had some problems, it still beat the Boers. Why was the army unsuited to holding on to the colonies in the 1950s and 1960s? I suspect the answer for the legion is similar.

The first assumption you make is that the conquests of the Republic were driven by Roman military technology. That is unlikely since Roman military technology was fairly easy to copy and was, in fact, widely copied. At least if you are talking about technology in the narrow sense. As a social technology, of course, Roman rule was extremely sophisticated and very hard to copy, but that ternds to be true for almost every instance of what we call 'social technology'. These things don't get invented, they evolve. Nobody quite agrees why the Roman Republic was able to defeat all comers for several centuries, but the best explanation seems to be a combination of a large recruitment reservoir, a social setting that rewarded participation in war, a warlike mindset that considered community honour an important value, an intensely competitive governing class that made war to acquire internal rank and status, and a target-rich environment structurally unprepared to oppose the political dynamic of the Roman system of empire-building. Being conquered by Rome was different from being conquered by other powers. Their alliance systems were more lasting and disloyalty was punished more fiercely. At the same time, they had the means to reward loyalty. Their government system could not be decapitated because their dedication to conquest was structural. You could not be a member of the Roman elite and not make war.
The technology of Roman warfare in the narrower sense was relatively simple and hardly superior to that of their opponents until the Principate. In fact, it seems to haver played a role in the halt of Rome's conquests that they ran out of technological and governmental equals. Their armies were of often questionable quality. That only changed with the first century BC.

At the same time, the first century BC brought the old Roman system to the limits of its capacity. You can have legitimate issues with P.A. Brunt's statistical analysis, but if you don't think he has a point, I'd like to hear youre rebuttal. The professionalisation of the military - a complete change in what the legion was - meant the liberation of much of the Roman manpower pool for nonmilitary tasks and the removal of internal conflict mweant that Aughustus could nonetheless still manage the largest territorial conquests in Rome's history. Soon afterwards, that dynamic begins to slow.

This slowing went hand in hand with serious recruitment shortfalls, a broad-based shift in elite culture and a broadening of the people on whose consent government depended. Military initiative on the part of governors and magistrates ceased to be a career booster and became a nonsurvival trait. Provincials could no longer be squeezed at will on the back of a Roman military based on its governing centre because the army's recruitment base shifted to the geographic periphery. At the hert of the Principate's initial ruiling ideology is the promise not to fight costly wars any more. It took the Roman Empire a long time to shake off this mindset.

Also, quite simply, the Roman model of conquest might have reached its limits. Roman rule dealt notoriously badly with decentralised enemies. It depended on a governing class to subject, suborn or replace. Outside the limits of the Empire, there were very few of those left.

Now, the Roman military changed greatly over all this time. The armies of the 3rd or 4th centuries were as alien to Caesar's as his would have been to the Pyrrhic Wars, maybe more so, given they completely abandoned the legion system even in name. Whether or not this change was technology-driven is questionable, but part of it very likely was (J.E. Lendon makes an extreme case, but it is not entirely unconvincing. A. Ferrill lays it out a little more impartially, but I don't quite buy his explanation either). The biggest problems that the Roman army faced throughout this phase don't seem to have been technological in nature - its technology was consistently at least as good, usually better than that of its opponents. Roman cavalry was excellent. Roman navies were top notch. Even its infantry continued to be good, though not, it appears, as good as it had been in the days of the Principate. The problem was the narrow recruitment base, increasing inability to sustain the effort required, and dependence on an overcomplex system to counter decentral and multiplying threats. Of course people have disagreed with this reading, but I think it's convincing. The Roman response of coopting potential enemies did not help in the long run.

Byzantium is a completely different matter again. Its military is based on that of the late Roman Empire, of course, because Byzantium really is the Roman Empire, but it changed its composition almost completely. It was able to militarily dominate its neighbours for a long time with a cavalry-centered, locally organised army (Maurice's Strategikon is good reading on this phase), but ultimately this structure did not prove the paacea it might have looked like. In the end, it wasn't the cannon that decided the issue. A city built for near a million people inhabited by maybe a tenth that number against one of the largest empires of its day is not a real contest. The Third Punic war must have looked similar - and the Carthaginians weren't beaten by a technologically more advanced foe, either.

Anyway, those are the aspects I consider most important, and if you can make a coherent narrative of technological maladaptiveness out of that, feel free.
 
I refer you all to Penguin's Atlases of Ancient and Medieval History, a series of maps by increasing date. While Republican Rome has its low points, like when Hannibal showed up, they don't last long overall, and you mostly see continued conquest, bwaha, and growth. The Empire, after a century or two of growth, begins to shrink, and stays that way except occasional temporary regainings of turf like in Justinian's time and moving around of the borders; it keeps shrinking until it's just Constantinople for awhile, then it's Istanbul, part of the Ottoman Empire.

I also bring you the contrast between the sunny great disposition and optimism of one of Rome's greatest primary historians, Polybius, with Late Roman like Marcellinus, who looks upon a state under far more stress and woe. Marcellinus saw his hopes brought low by an arrow killing the Emperor in Persia, a thing that had rather less effect in the Republic. They even already had a second consul elected, and they ran alot more competent than Emperors ran, because they were better-chosen.



Right on schedule, carlton - denial. But it doesn't mean what I'm saying was any the less true. The Republic won in big part by continually outinnovating its neighbors militarily and optimizing their practices for centuries on end. Polybius tells the tale of how both Carthage and his Greeks whom had beaten Persia were outinnovated, and explains the institutions that mades the elites in society work so hard for conquest and gave them the freedom to do so. Their neighbors rarely enjoyed large gaps between their adaptations and the corresponding Roman counteradaptations. And the manpower thing was fixed under the *Republic*, of course, although the fix had enough problems to doom the Republic in the end. And wasn't more turf taken by the Republic the generation before Augustus than under his rule?



Basileus Giorgios, Legions pre- and post-Marius used pretty similar formations, tactics, and customs; the biggest difference is the ignoring of property restrictions. There were several legionary roles, which depended on class, seniority, and perceived eptness. In the Republic, roles and tactics did continually evolve quickly with time and even by front (you got different kit and training facing Gauls than Greeks). Are you going to tell me that losing a ton of turf meant less to the Empire than to the French in WW2?

Er, the greed thing worked, just as it brought us Google and online alternate history communities; there were also Roman customs that focused respect and greed on conquest. We've hardly seen Ethiopia expand fast, so it's not warlords.



Cornelius, I meant the gripe at carlton; I'm sorry if you thought I aimed it at you. And, thanks for being willing to acknowledge the truth, and even try on my question.

I do believe, like many historians back to Thucidydes, and including Polybius, that institutions and eptness of rule matter. We've seen, in the last century, for example, free, democratic peoples outperform unfree monarchies, dictatorships, and even the oligarchic ex-Communist states. The fairer your economy and country are, the more civil liberties it ihas, the more widely power's checked, the more money, fewer problems, and more innovations your country's likely to have. The Republic started as a widely-checked somewhat-fair oligarchic monarchy, and it grew in both checks to power and fairness over time until Sulla exploited a fatal problem. The Empire was an unchecked monarchy, which grew less free and fair over time. The comparison between their fates thus goes as I expect, including worse economy and individual security.


Basileus and carlton, I'm still waiting....

Sorry this comment's so stuffy and pompous. I've just been reading an author who brings out the worst of that side of me. I really shouldn't be posting til I detox....
 
The Republic started as a widely-checked somewhat-fair oligarchic monarchy, and it grew in both checks to power and fairness over time until Sulla exploited a fatal problem. The Empire was an unchecked monarchy, which grew less free and fair over time. The comparison between their fates thus goes as I expect, including worse economy and individual security.

The Republic started as a strict olygarchy and remained so until the shift to the empire. Don't get fooled by the creation of tribuni plebis, the power always remained firmly in the aristocracy 's hands, no matter what. Even the heads of the populares faction were nobles.
The reason for the shift to an imperial system is hard to pin, but is usually recognized thast the people desire for peace was the main factor.
The marian reform allowed the republic to field much more soldiers, but also gave to the generals great deal of personal power. The soldiers sweared fealty to their own commander and depended from him to obtain land and money at the end of their service.
The last 150 years of the republic were marred by civil wars and costant violence between factions. Cicero here is a good source.
When Octavian became primus inter pares, he managed to give to Rome the much needed peace. The empire remained as goverment system because was the army that choose who was going to rule, but it has been so since the late republic. If you look closely to the republic last period, tou'll see that most of the consuls were just figurehead for a party or another. The true rulers were Sulla, Pompey, Cesar and so on so forth.
After Domitius, there was a brief talking about restoring the republic, but it went nowhere. Instead romans came up with the adoptive princedom, a system that actually gave good results for nearly a century, just to succumb to the family logic.

I do believe, like many historians back to Thucidydes, and including Polybius, that institutions and eptness of rule matter.

First: beware of ancient historians. They ALWAYS writed to demonstrate some ideological point or to support a party. The idea that history must be completely objective is quite recent.
Second: the perfect goverment system doesn't exist. Aristotle wrote that all the goverments are bound to change during times, since they have to conform to their citizens. And this point had been demonstrated several times during history. Democracies falls to demagougs, monarchies become tyrannies etc.

We've seen, in the last century, for example, free, democratic peoples outperform unfree monarchies, dictatorships, and even the oligarchic ex-Communist states. The fairer your economy and country are, the more civil liberties it ihas, the more widely power's checked, the more money, fewer problems, and more innovations your country's likely to have.

There are many examples of the crontrary also.

Remember that all empires (or nations) are born, blossom and then fall. You can not defy entropy, no matter what.

Sorry for getting so philosophical, it's the season...
 
Sorry about the diversion of the thread, Octavian.

I've also been occupied - I bonked a lung - and expect to have to catch up a bit. I'm thinking the way to deal with this is for me to get around to creating a new argument thread and post a pointer to it here once I have time again to go a new round of replies.

Merry New Year, all!
 
This is my next installment in the timeline (note: I will discontinue the story part for now so I can flesh out the timeline):

351 A.D.-Magnentius, a Roman general, becomes an usurper for the throne after the army becomes dissatisfied with Constantine II. Constantine II is assassinated not long after Magnentius begins to gather his forces.

352 A.D.-Magnentius marches eastward against Constantius II after the eastern emperor refuses to recognize him because Constantine II was his brother. The forces of the usurper and Constantius clashed at the battle of Mursa Major near the Danube river. Both sides lose many casualties and it is a very bloody battle, but Magnentius’ forces triumph. Constantius II was praying at a local Christian shrine during the battle, and he and the remnants of the army flee eastward. Most of the armies of Constantius II in Pannonia and the Balkans pledge their allegiance to the Magnentius, meanwhile Constantius II gathers the remnants of his forces in Thrace.

354 A.D.-After successfully campaigning in the east against Constantius, Magnentius corners Constantius in Adrianople in Thrace where he made his last stand. The siege is long and bloody but Magnentius triumphs again. Magnentius proclaims himself emperor of the west and Magnus Decentius, a colleague of his, emperor of the east.
 
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Bumpity, bumpity, bump! I want some more feedback please!

What sort of policies do you think Magnetius would follow as Emperor?

The fact the loser of the battle was praying at a Christian shrine instead of commanding his armies indicates (to me) that the popular perception of Christianity is going to take a hit.

Paganism was stronger in the West in OTL, so perhaps the Christianization of the Empire goes differently?
 

Hashasheen

Banned
As for Hannibal, an army is as good as the general leading (especially in the ancient era). Hannibal was a military genius, but in the end he could never capitalize his victories.
I'll dispute this, seeing as how the one victory he didnt capitalise one was the one that killed him. are there any TL's where Hannibal did march on Rome after Cannae?
 
What sort of policies do you think Magnetius would follow as Emperor?

The fact the loser of the battle was praying at a Christian shrine instead of commanding his armies indicates (to me) that the popular perception of Christianity is going to take a hit.

Paganism was stronger in the West in OTL, so perhaps the Christianization of the Empire goes differently?

I think as emperor Magnentius would be more favorable to pagans than the past few Christian emperors. Since Magnentius was a soldier he would have probably given pay raises to the military.

On Christianity taking a hit you seem to read my thinking! The word of this happening would probably be popularized by the soldiers that fought in the battle and maybe even Magnentius himself, and Christianity could become just a medium sized religion in the Roman world.
 
Uh... sorry I see huge, inprobabilities. First of all the scientist wouldn't have died probably just freaked out (b/c if archimedes didn't apply gunpowder to the defense of syracuse it'd probably had been a weakened form in an off ratio) So it would have caused a lot of smoke, maybe burned quickly so if anything really freaked out. I would see it seen more as a Smoke grenade (which was used by pirates in that time period or before I believe) Then as it went into widespread use it would evolve to the explosive form. Then it'd become an explosive. The use of it in guns I believe will only appear when the Chinese come or the idea from the east.
 
Urusai[InFi];2149858 said:
Uh... sorry I see huge, inprobabilities. First of all the scientist wouldn't have died probably just freaked out (b/c if archimedes didn't apply gunpowder to the defense of syracuse it'd probably had been a weakened form in an off ratio) So it would have caused a lot of smoke, maybe burned quickly so if anything really freaked out. I would see it seen more as a Smoke grenade (which was used by pirates in that time period or before I believe) Then as it went into widespread use it would evolve to the explosive form. Then it'd become an explosive. The use of it in guns I believe will only appear when the Chinese come or the idea from the east.

It's a not well known fact that the Chinese had no intention of creating guns with it, it was discovered by Taoist monks! And from what I have read about the first experiments there were injuries and fires.
 
I'll dispute this, seeing as how the one victory he didnt capitalise one was the one that killed him
Hannibal's strategic goal was to beat the romans in Italy and induce the italian cities allied with Rome to defect. Since he failed to sever the alliance, a part few cities like Cuma and Syracuse, he never actually capitalised his victories, lost the initiative to the romans and finally was defeated.

You lost me with the battle which killed him, though. I knew he suicided many years after Zama, to not fall in roman's hands. Could you explain, please?

Back to the topic: I don't think that a defeat could justify a resurge of paganism. The christians can always say that Costans lost because his faith wasn't strong enough, or that the defeat is just another way for God to test their faith. Things could change if Magnetius starts a culture revolution, reviving the stoic philosophy for example, but it wouldn't be easy.
 
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Hannibal's strategic goal was to beat the romans in Italy and induce the italian cities allied with Rome to defect. Since he failed to sever the alliance, a part few cities like Cuma and Syracuse, he never actually capitalised his victories, lost the initiative to the romans and finally was defeated.

You lost me with the battle which killed him, though. I knew he suicided many years after Zama, to not fall in roman's hands. Could you explain, please?

Back to the topic: I don't think that a defeat could justify a resurge of paganism. The christians can always say that Costans lost because his faith wasn't strong enough, or that the defeat is just another way for God to test their faith. Things could change if Magnetius starts a culture revolution, reviving the stoic philosophy for example, but it wouldn't be easy.

Magnentius was around 50 years old around this time, so he wouldn't have been on the throne for a long time.
 
Magnentius was around 50 years old around this time, so he wouldn't have been on the throne for a long time.

How long is "long"?

I remember reading about Roman-era Germany and the book said if someone lived to be 30, they had a good chance of living to be 60, 70, or older.

Of course, given this is Late Antiquity, there's always the danger of usurpers.
 
355 A.D.-Magnentius appoints Gallus, a relative of Constantius II whose family had been massacred by the former eastern emperor, as his caesar in the west while Decentius appoints Julian, brother of Gallus, as his caesar in the east.

356-360 A.D.-As emperor Magnentius makes many efforts to repair paganism that had been suppressed under the Constantinian dynasty. Word spread among the empire about Constantius' humiliating defeat at the hand of Magnentius when instead of fighting he was praying at a shrine. He becomes labeled as a coward and soon Christianity itself becomes associated with cowardliness. A resurgence of paganism begins among former Christians and the nonreligious and the imperial cult becomes revived.

360-369 A.D.-In Illyricum an obscure alchemist experimenting with gunpowder and tubes incidentally invents a primitive version of the rocket, it becomes a form of entertainment for locals and becomes a popular attraction in local amphitheaters, eventually spreading to Rome itself. Local Roman soldiers see its potential as a weapon and it is employed against barbarian raiders with mixed results as a shock weapon. When the Allemanni attack the frontiers in 368, Magnentius himself, although aging, campaigns against them using the new shock weapon in limited amounts. The Romans win tremendously experiencing only a few losses and the king of the Allemanni, Macrian, sues for peace in 369.

362-366 A.D.-The battle between paganism and Christianity intensifies as there are flat out riots between different groups in the streets, with churches and temples being damaged heavily.

367 A.D.-Magnentius orders a purge of Christianity within the empire because he believes it is causing chaos and disorder and is contrary to the empire. Chaos spreads across the empire as all known Christians are torn out of their homes and slaughtered in the streets, while all churches are looted and destroyed. The status of Christianity returns to pre-Constantine times as an illegal religion contrary to the old paganism. The remaining Christians are forced into the underground, heavily weakened in numbers by the purge and increase of paganism. Decentius follows in the suppression of Christianity but is not as ruthless about it.

368-369 A.D.-The chaos settles in the east and west with paganism the dominant religion. The army had also been purged of Christianity but the numbers lost were not huge because many Christians had changed to paganism following the lost of Constantius.

370-375 A.D.-The Huns appear north of the Black Sea and begin attacking and subjugating the Goths and Alans. The effects are noticed by the Romans but it is not much of a problem to them yet.

375 A.D.-The emperor Mangnentius dies of heart failure while at his headquarters in Trier. Gallus is proclaimed emperor of the west although this is disputed by the wife of Magnentius who proclaims their son Flavius as the rightful successor.
 
Well, it is 15 years after the event, religious climate has changed faster than that more drastically in other history.
 
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