Archduke Sigismund Francis doesn't die in 1665

[Jan Olbracht]

Say Archduke Sigismund Francis lives 10 years longer and has surviving kids with Hedwig of Palatinate-Sulzbach, say one surviving son (Sigismund Leopold, b. 1668) and two daughters (Claudia Amalia b. 1671 and Maria Isabella b. 1673).
So Tirolean Habsburg line continues. In such case Leopold doesn't need to marry Claudia Felicitas, who is not heiress of Tirol ITTL, probaly he'll just marry Eleanor Magdalene a bit earlier. But with additional male Habsburg, Spanish succession could look a bit different. Maria Antonia, daughter of Leopold and niece of Carlos II of Spain, could marry *Sigismund Leopold* Archduke of Tirol instead of Elector of Bavaria, and thus that pair would be heirs to the Spanish throne. Sigismund would likely even leave for Spain before Carlos II's death, to prepare to take the throne if he's named heir. That would not prevent Spanish Succession War, but could change its final result.

 

[JonasResende]

Say Archduke Sigismund Francis lives 10 years longer and has surviving kids with Hedwig of Palatinate-Sulzbach, say one surviving son (Sigismund Leopold, b. 1668) and two daughters (Claudia Amalia b. 1671 and Maria Isabella b. 1673).
So Tirolean Habsburg line continues. In such case Leopold doesn't need to marry Claudia Felicitas, who is not heiress of Tirol ITTL, probaly he'll just marry Eleanor Magdalene a bit earlier. But with additional male Habsburg, Spanish succession could look a bit different. Maria Antonia, daughter of Leopold and niece of Carlos II of Spain, could marry *Sigismund Leopold* Archduke of Tirol instead of Elector of Bavaria, and thus that pair would be heirs to the Spanish throne. Sigismund would likely even leave for Spain before Carlos II's death, to prepare to take the throne if he's named heir. That would not prevent Spanish Succession War, but could change its final result.

A question from another discussion where Ferdinand Karl had a son arises: would Leopold require the cession of Tyrol in exchange for Sigmund Leopold's marriage to Maria Antonia? Since, if Klaudia isn't heiress, that gives Leopold no reason to marry her - i.e. she probably winds up as Mrs. James II and Leopold marries wife no. 3 as wife no. 2; and Mary of Modena joins a convent or winds up married to Carlos II. (Mary's a massively overlooked character, and I'm definitely a fan of her. Not to mention that if you look at her portraits she's pretty hot - idealized or no ). Klaudia Amalie or Maria Isabella might end up as electress of Bavaria in replacement of Maria Antonia here (unless Louis XIV decides that he's going to send some poor French girl (Anne Marie d'Orléans - since if Mary of Modena winds up as queen of Spain, Marie Louise d'Orléans presumably becomes either queen of Portugal or duchess of Savoy, which leaves Anne Marie without a chair; or Marie Thérèse de Condé to Munich). And then we have the problem of Hedwig's OTL second husband - who'll need to marry somewhere else (hopefully not to a cousin or a spinster/widow in that grand Askanier tradition).

As to the Spanish inheritance, as long as Margarita Teresa's line is extant, the WotSS is presumably delayed. AIUI, it was only when that went extinct that it all went to custard OTL.

 

[Jan Olbracht]

Still, Maria Theresa's unpaid dowry means, that L14 would claim at least part of Spanish Inheritance. And peacefull partition of Spanish Empire is hardly possible, so there would be conflict after Carlos II's death.

 

[Vitruvius]

I agree, Sigismund Francis' children would probably be married to Leopold's. But one caveat, the POD is before Margarita Theresa's marriage to Leopold so its always possible she has a son. Though if Sigismund has a daughter it would still be a favorable match. Also after the POD, the death of Claudia Felicitas' younger sister, Maria Maddalena. So Sigismund may have two nieces to look after. I don't think he can provide much of a dowry for either since his brother squandered much of the family's wealth. It's always possible that Anna de' Medici withdraws with her children to Florence and they end up Italian marriages. And the Lauenburg continuing will eventually have some effects in the north.

As for Louis XIV, the Tyrolean Archduke inheriting Spain is like a nightmare scenario. Not only does it keep Spain in Habsburg hands but Tyrol and Further Austria added to the Spanish Empire would make up for the loss of the Franche Comte and help reopen communications between the Netherlands and Italy. The old French fear of Spanish encirclement comes roaring back.

 

[isabella]

I agree, Sigismund Francis' children would probably be married to Leopold's. But one caveat, the POD is before Margarita Theresa's marriage to Leopold so its always possible she has a son. Though if Sigismund has a daughter it would still be a favorable match. Also after the POD, the death of Claudia Felicitas' younger sister, Maria Maddalena. So Sigismund may have two nieces to look after. I don't think he can provide much of a dowry for either since his brother squandered much of the family's wealth. It's always possible that Anna de' Medici withdraws with her children to Florence and they end up Italian marriages. And the Lauenburg continuing will eventually have some effects in the north.

As for Louis XIV, the Tyrolean Archduke inheriting Spain is like a nightmare scenario. Not only does it keep Spain in Habsburg hands but Tyrol and Further Austria added to the Spanish Empire would make up for the loss of the Franche Comte and help reopen communications between the Netherlands and Italy. The old French fear of Spanish encirclement comes roaring back.

This is unlikely... Milan will go to the Emperor and then to one of his sons from Eleonore or to his younger brother... Italian weddings for Claudia and Maddalena are not unlikely here as them go to live in Italy...
France can not do much here if Margarita’s line survive... Louis can use the unpaid dowry for either put his heirs in the Spanish line of succession after Margarita’s descendants or taking Netherlands as payment

 

[Vitruvius]

If Maria Antonia's line continues by marrying into the Tyrolean line why would Spain cede any territory to the Imperial line? I could see maybe if Sigismund Francis has to surrender Tyrol to Leopold as the price for a marriage to Maria Antonia (in which case, in exchange, Leopold still marries Claudia Felicitas to bind the two branches) but why give away Milan (but presumably not Tyrol)?

Louis would absolutely grasp at whatever straws he has (and the dowry is his best issue) because the geopolitical implications of Sigismund Francis or his son inheriting Spain are too dangerous for France.

 

[isabella]

If Maria Antonia's line continues by marrying into the Tyrolean line why would Spain cede any territory to the Imperial line? I could see maybe if Sigismund Francis has to surrender Tyrol to Leopold as the price for a marriage to Maria Antonia (in which case, in exchange, Leopold still marries Claudia Felicitas to bind the two branches) but why give away Milan (but presumably not Tyrol)?

Louis would absolutely grasp at whatever straws he has (and the dowry is his best issue) because the geopolitical implications of Sigismund Francis or his son inheriting Spain are too dangerous for France.

Milan will likely be lost for the extinction of the male line of descendants of Philip II and being an imperial fief will go to the Emperor who will be free to grant it again to anyone he want... Tyrol will still be in possession of the direct male line of succession so Leopold has less space for trying something about it but he will try everything for either take Tyrol for himself or at least keep it separated from Spain...
Louis can not do much about the Spanish succession as the claim of Margarita Teresa’s line would be always superior to the one of Maria Teresa’s heirs so he will try to get a wedding alliance with them