Archduke Franz Ferdinnamd not shot

Archduke FF is not shot in Sarajeya and the flashpoint is 2-5 years further ahead, what would happen? Russia alot stronger? Germany adopting a russia first strategy? Not belgium invasion no uk?
 
He lives....ok that's the easy part however the Balkans are a powder keg. The Balkans we're going to be partitioned up due to ethnic divisions in Europe (i.e. Slovaks Croatian and hungarians). There might not be a full blown war in 1915 or 16 but a balkan war could tear apart the austro-hungarian empire....just a matter of time. Even if he isn't shot he might not be in power long regardless. Just my thoughts but an intriguing idea.
 
lets say: 5 years out is a new flash point.

Its a different situation altogether. Russia is becoming a colossus. Britain and Germany have less tensions (no more colonial issues, Britain "won" naval race, Britain concerned about Russia).
Germany can't do west first plan, Russia is too strong early, can mobilize quicker.
While there are ethnics tension in Austria, they aren't that bad. Certainly no militarized resistance, and large minority areas, like Polish areas are peaceful (no desire to trade easy Austrian rule for Russian).
German colonies are becoming valuable enough that the Germans don't want to risk losing them. (railroads have extended even further in East Africa and Kamerun, anti-malaria drugs more prevalent)
Germany and Britain may have perhaps split the Portuguese colonies, keeping Germany occupied with developing these.

While flash points occur, they might be able to be localized, or otherwise resolved before a world war occurs. Its really up to Germany, Britain and Russia, if all 3 of those powers decide that war is not in their best interests, war won't happen. Germany certainly 5 years later can't afford to be so aggressive.
 
Franz Ferdinand survives and becomes Emperor in 1916, starting a project to federalize Austria-Hungary. Serbia, that was preparing a revolt and an invasion of Bosnia in 1914 (they don't want war because was too early), sees that as a threat: if Slavs will get an autonomous state under Austrian Crown, the Yugoslavian Dream will be dead. So Serbia starts his revolt and intervenes to protect "my Slavic brothers", asking to Russia for help. Russia, a little more modernized, quickly mobilized, forcing Germany to declare war. But, with Russian railroads completed, the "West First-East Second" Plan is obsolete, so Germany attacks Russia and stays on defensive against France, that, according to French-Russian defensive alliance, declare war to Germany but is unable to reach the Rhine and loses a lot of men. Without Belgium invasion, United Kingdom stays neutral. No Britain means no US and no Japan. After the Austrian Annexation of Bosnia, Italy considered the Triple Alliance dead and in 1917 simply doesn't renovate it: without war, Salandra falls in 1914 and Giolitti returns to power, so Italy stays neutral. Othman Empire sides with Central Empires against Balcanic Nations (except for Bulgaria). In 1920 Russia is totally defeated and a Revolution (and Civil War) begins against the Tsar. With only one front left, France has to surrender in 1922. Without war, Italy avoids Fascism and UK keeps Asquith: both of them will have main Liberal Parties. In US Wilson gets a unprecedented third term with the extraordinary excuse to keep out Americans from war and dies in office, leaving the Presidency to Thomas Marshall, who chose Mitchell Palmer as running mate and dies soon afterward his reelection.
 

Anchises

Banned
Five years later Russia is still going to be a giant on clay feet. Economic growth and throwing money at the army, are not going to solve the glaring structural deficiencies that caused Russia's failures in WW1. Especially because prior to WW1 no side realized the weaknesses that plagued Russia.

Massive Russian armament is going to spark massive military investments in Germany and A-H.

Franz Ferdinand probably would use his three (assuming F-J still dies in 1916) on the throne to unfuck the common army a little bit. We would likely see (at least) a massive influx of money, to train a proper number of draftees. So in case of war A-H is likely to perform slightly better than IOTL.

With Germany not going for Schlieffen, the Entente is in big trouble.

Tsarist Russia won't be able to fix its faulty military structures in 5 years. 5 more years of massive spending are going to improve performance sure but take a minute to think about the German reaction. Also lets not forget that a lot of Russian money is going to flow into the navy.

Instead of a single army with second-rate troops, Germany is likely to field several armies with first-rate troops in the East. Five years are not enough to mitigate this, Russia is very likely facing a much bigger disaster than IOTL.

The plan to concentrate on a knockout blow against A-H only makes sense ITTL, if Russia is able to field more armies. Otherwise the 3-4 armies the German Empire likely fields will draw away strength from the A-H front.

I see three likely scenarios here:

1) Russia, surpremly confident in itself, decides to go on the offensive against Germany and A-H.

Needless to say that this is bound to have disastrous results for the Entente. Sure, A-H is going to bleed but there is no way that Russia has enough strength to pull off a successfull offensive on two fronts.

The offensive against Eastern Prussia is likely going to end in a disaster on the scale of Tannenberg or worse.

Best case is a quick end of the offensive in Galicia and a massive redeployment against Germany, to plug the gaps.

Worst case would be a disastrous defeat in Poland or Eastern Prussia but inter-army rivalries and mission creep prevent the redeployment of much needed reinforcments from Galicia.

2) Russia, confident in its new strength, decides to focus the initial offensive on Germany. The plan is a "combined" (expect similar cooperation like IOTL) French-Russian offensive to quickly overwhelm Germany.

Best case for the Entente in this scenario, is an Eastern repeat of the Frontier Battles.(https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_the_Frontiers)

Worst case is a scenario similar to OTLs Tannenberg, possibly on a larger scale, but Germany has the reserves to exploit their success.

3) Offensive against A-H and defense against Germany.

Here Russia would be able to extract a higher price from any German relief offensive and A-H is likely in bad shape for the rest of the war.
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In the West France is likely to impale itself on stable German defenses. No "Rape of Belgium" has massive repercussions for mobilization and propaganda, especially in Britain.



I don't think the Central Powers would be worse of ITTL. Quite the opposite. Germany made two massive strategic mistakes ITTL. Attacking Belgium and unrestricted submarine warfare. At least one of these mistakes is butterflied away here.
 
Archduke FF is not shot in Sarajeya and the flashpoint is 2-5 years further ahead, what would happen? Russia alot stronger? Germany adopting a russia first strategy? Not belgium invasion no uk?
By 1914, a war is pretty much inevitable. Germany realizes that Russia is getting stronger, and knows they need to be defeated now, not in twenty years when they don't stand a chance. Preventing the assassination of Franz Ferdinand would only push the inevitable down a few months. After all, a world war was only narrowly avoided in 1912 with Morocco.
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
Franz Ferdinand survives and becomes Emperor in 1916, starting a project to federalize Austria-Hungary. Serbia, that was preparing a revolt and an invasion of Bosnia in 1914 (they don't want war because was too early), sees that as a threat: if Slavs will get an autonomous state under Austrian Crown, the Yugoslavian Dream will be dead.
Serbia wouldn’t even need to start a revolt because the Hungarians would sever the Ausgleich, triggering a civil war.
 

Deleted member 94680

By 1914, a war is pretty much inevitable. Germany realizes that Russia is getting stronger, and knows they need to be defeated now, not in twenty years when they don't stand a chance. Preventing the assassination of Franz Ferdinand would only push the inevitable down a few months. After all, a world war was only narrowly avoided in 1912 with Morocco.

Yes, but they did avoid war and easily. Europe wasn’t on the brink of war and it’s a trope to suggest it was. It took the murder of the heir to the throne of a Great Power to trigger the July Crisis, nothing less.

Serbia wouldn’t even need to start a revolt because the Hungarians would sever the Ausgleich, triggering a civil war.

Nonsense. The Hungarians can’t sever the Ausgleich and it’s not in their interests to do so either.

Hungarians can revolt and Serbians takes advantage of this to invade Bosnia

Why would the Hungarians revolt?
 
I would think that even a 5 year down the road confident Russia would be wary of aggression attacking Germany+Austria (or waging an aggressive foreign policy likely to cause war).

Germany has a fierce war making reputation at the time, everyone knew how seriously they took the art of waging war. In a aggression defense scenario, Britain is not likely to come in, might be in on the other side, if Russia is picking on Turkey or something.

Likely you have some scenario down the road where some revolt in Armenia or Kurdistan triggers Russian intervention, every one postures, but Germany and Russia aren't willing to really wage a years long conflict (and that is what an east front scenario has to be) over such a place. There is a conference, Russia gets a slice of the Ottoman empire (in exchange for others getting a slice, or other considerations elsewhere) OR even maybe there is even a Sevres style carve up with Russia, France, Britain and Greece getting chunks. Germany gets colonial concessions elsewhere (Togo expanded, Pacific Islands, or a free hand to take down the Portuguese colonies). These things can be worked out.
 
Serbia wouldn’t even need to start a revolt because the Hungarians would sever the Ausgleich, triggering a civil war.
Hungarians can revolt and Serbians takes advantage of this to invade Bosnia

Why are the Hungarians revolting, exactly? FJ may personally have a chip on his shoulders as far as the Magyars are concerned,but he has a government that would throw a fit if he tried to cram through reforms without smoothing it over with Budapest first; least he end up causing the empire to crumble in an ethno/ideological mess as virtually every quarter would oppose his attempts to impliment the required marshal law. Hungary itself has every reason to want to keeping the Serbs down too (Vojvodina) and I doubt will be jumping immediately to secession while they and Romania are both looking on hungerly
 
Serbia wouldn’t even need to start a revolt because the Hungarians would sever the Ausgleich, triggering a civil war.
That’s... not how the Ausgleich worked.

If he survives, its likely he will implement the plan for the United States of Greater Austria.
Unlikely, FF was never actually a big fan of that idea. He was an absolutist. He despised the Hungarian nobility as well, wanted to break their stranglehold over the country in order to stop their Magyarization policies against minorities.
 
Franz Ferdinnamd would live and continue his tour in Sarajeya but, unfortunately, his more famous twin brother Franz Ferdinand would still be shot in Sarajevo and the war would begin exactly the same
 
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