Arch Duke of Austria-Hungary and his wife are not assassinated in 1914

World War I began when The Arch Duke of Austria-Hungary and his wife were assassinated by I believe a Serb on August 28, 1914.

What if that assassination had never happened?

I know, the short answer is, no WWI. But the tensions that led to that assassination and to WWI would still have been there and would at some point have been released.

If it had not begun in 1914, when would WWI have begun and how would a later WWI have effected history?
 

Germaniac

Donor
Well depending on how much later you might see a much worse off Germany. If you give Russia the extra time to prepare you might see a stronger push maybe not against Germany but much stronger vs. Austria and you might see them collapse far quicker that OTL.

There will be a Great War. That much is certain but you might see Germany loose much quicker in that war. Hell it might be better off for the German Empire it might very likely survive
 
Well many of the leading minds in Europe were convinced that a Great War in the beginning of the 20th century was impossible (because of all the economic interconnections that had grown up over what had been a time of relative stability)- it'd be interesting to see a timeline where that turns out to be correct.

It was also seen by military analysts in Germany IIRC that the German-Russian balance would over time move more towards Russia and away from Germany. So that's something to keep in mind as well... if you can delay the "inevitable" conflict long enough, the power balance will be enough that the "Great" War could be in fact quite short and decisive against Germany.

Really something is going to happen in the Balkans, at least...
 
Whatever will happen, will happen because of some damned stupid thing in the Balkans. A place that saw three wars in two years can't be anything else but a tinderbox.
 
Well many of the leading minds in Europe were convinced that a Great War in the beginning of the 20th century was impossible (because of all the economic interconnections that had grown up over what had been a time of relative stability)- it'd be interesting to see a timeline where that turns out to be correct.

A lot of folks have the same views now. They believe that because the rapid rise of globalization since the collapse of the Soviet Union that war is obsolete. While I hope they are right this time, I fear they are not.
 
A lot of people were convinced that a clash was inevitable; at the same time most people believed that a war would be short.
The German leaders feared that Russia would become too strong.
But if a 1914 war could be avoided, Germany was the nation to profit from peace.
They would stay ahead in science and technology and outgrow France and Britain.
Russian armament was much slower and much more disorganised than the Germans could ever imagine it would be.
If there's no assassination crisis, the war will either be triggered by France or Britain in 1916/17 (for fear of being marginalised) or not happen at all - and Europe may have a chance to arrive at some early kind of EU.
 
hmm, a WW1 with the Germans as the Good Guys (depending on exactly HOW France/UK trigger the war, of course)
interresting to say the least. If Germany plays it's cards right, they might get the US ... if not on board, then definitly sympathetic. (and the Netherlands and Belgium but they're not going to make much of a difference)
Can you imagine a US cargo ship trying to reach a German port and being fired upon by the royal navy?
ok, the Brittish would have to be quite stupid to let this happen ... but hey, it's war, stupid things happen.
 
Can you imagine a US cargo ship trying to reach a German port and being fired upon by the royal navy?
ok, the Brittish would have to be quite stupid to let this happen ... but hey, it's war, stupid things happen.

Remember Canada? The British are going to do anything that could possibly open a second front.
 
You imply they were not "the good guys" IOTL?

in general, the guys who start invading their neighbours are not the "good guys" and those who come to the aid of said neighbours are.
... from the point of view of these neighbours, of course.

Remember Canada? The British are going to do anything that could possibly open a second front.

typo, I assume?
or, are you implying the British will be hell bent of starting a war with the US?
 

Susano

Banned
World War I began when The Arch Duke of Austria-Hungary and his wife were assassinated by I believe a Serb on August 28, 1914.
Nitpick: There was no "Arch Duke of Austria-Hungary". Every male Habsburg was an Archduke of Austria, so even saying "the Archduke" is wrong. What make that specific Archduke so special was that he was the Crown Prince of Austria-Hungary.


It was also seen by military analysts in Germany IIRC that the German-Russian balance would over time move more towards Russia and away from Germany. So that's something to keep in mind as well... if you can delay the "inevitable" conflict long enough, the power balance will be enough that the "Great" War could be in fact quite short and decisive against Germany.
Yes. Russia was underdeveloped, so there simply was potential for it to catch up. France, OTOH, the main investor in Russia, was financially very strained due to those investments and arming up and everything. Give it another 10,20 years and France might have a serious financial crisis...

Really something is going to happen in the Balkans, at least...
Albania would be the next big crisis, IIRC.

in general, the guys who start invading their neighbours are not the "good guys" and those who come to the aid of said neighbours are.
Usually, the guys who support and fund terrorist activities are not the good guys, and those who try to end their schemes are.
 
If Archduke Ferdinad wasn't assasinated, the Great War happening around 1920 or so would see Germany even more powerful and winning especially if the US is more isolationist in TTL.
 
One thought on the matter; if Russia continues to modernize Germany might revise the Schlieffen Plan, perhaps switching to a Russia First strategy. A shift in the balance of power that makes Germany appear less threatening could also dampen British enthusiasm for the Entente; Franco-Russian domination of Europe is no better British interests than German domination.
 

Valdemar II

Banned
One thought on the matter; if Russia continues to modernize Germany might revise the Schlieffen Plan, perhaps switching to a Russia First strategy. A shift in the balance of power that makes Germany appear less threatening could also dampen British enthusiasm for the Entente; Franco-Russian domination of Europe is no better British interests than German domination.

It quite likely that the Schlieffen Plan could have worked later, France was becoming weaker and weaker compared to Germany. Another aspect is that AHs conomy grew faster than even Russias, so I don't think CPs would be in a worse situation a few years later.
 
If Archduke Ferdinad wasn't assasinated, the Great War happening around 1920 or so would see Germany even more powerful and winning especially if the US is more isolationist in TTL.

America's isolationism was a reaction to the war and an assertion to withdraw into a booming economy. Delay the war and the factors that drive a US military-industrial complex to join might be even greater. You might not even need a Zimmerman Note. And advances in aviation and voice radio would change the technological picture.
 
America's isolationism was a reaction to the war and an assertion to withdraw into a booming economy. Delay the war and the factors that drive a US military-industrial complex to join might be even greater. You might not even need a Zimmerman Note. And advances in aviation and voice radio would change the technological picture.

If the war is delayed it might result in greater influence of German-Americans and result in the election of an extremely isolationist President.
 
A Third Balkan War seems more likely than any 'inevitable' Great War. Albania is 1914's massive crisis (reduced to an afterthought by the outbreak of WW1 of course), whilst Britain has a MAJOR constitutional disaster speeding towards it in Ireland, with the king backing the Unionists, mutiny at the Curragh and martial law likely.

Things in the potential pipeline include German-sponsored attempts at a Greco-Ottoman rapprochement (I remember that from Albertini) and instability within Serbia, especially if Franz Ferdinand survives DESPITE the assassination attempt. The Black Hand's links to government, and the potential role of Russian agents, is going to come out, and probably cause a constitutional crisis

Greece and Serbia have an alliance, Bulgaria was just thrashed in the Second Balkan War so is unlikely to be very able to fight again soon.

But if Albania bubbles on for a couple of years, drawing in other nations, by 1916 you could have an explosive situation

Russia also has leased a base at Lesbos, and planned to have its Borodino class battlecruisers based in the Med, so direct intervention in the Adriatic is possible, as with Russia during the Napoleonic Wars

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
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