Arabs win 1973 Yom Kippur War

Is this ASB? If not, how could it have happened? If it happened, what would be the results?
 
WWIII.
As Syrian Tanks near Tel Aviv, the Samson Option is uncorked, Damascus, Cairo and other areas get the dose of Instant Sunshine, including the Warsaw Pact and USSR, along with Mecca and Medina, all via F-4 on one way trips
 

Md139115

Banned
One of the best Tom Clancy novels was based on an alternate, (or so we think) TL where Israel yanked it's tatical nukes out to use against the Syrian forces advancing in the North, and almost dropped them before saner heads prevailed.

I really do think that it is plausible that Israel would, at minimum, use nuclear weapons at least at a tatical level to survive, and I can forsee this spiraling out of control.
 
The Arab powers may not of had conquering Israel in mind but if the Syrians* break through the Golan and their armored colunms are advancing through northern Israel then the elimination of the Jewish State is most defineterly on the menu. Because if they have Israel on the verge of defeat and let them off the hook the PLO and their successor groups will not be happy. And if the Israeli's unleash Samson on Cairo, Damascus, Mecca and Medina the Jewish State is dead.

*And it was close. The final fight of the M4 Sherman stopped the Syrian armor just short
 
Israel would have gone Samson Option on the Arabs in this. Aswan Dam would be hit, and Egypt would be destroyed with Biblical level floods. Israel have at least 13 Atomic Bombs at this time to 20 nukes, so besides the Dam, the rest of Syria, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Libya, and Iraq are lit up.
 
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Israel would have gone Samson Option on the Arabs in this. Aswan Dam would be hit, and Egypt would be destroyed with Biblical level floods. Israel have at least 13 Atomic Bombs at this time to 20 nukes, so besides the Dam, the rest of Syria, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Libya, and Iraq are let up.


An all too likely chain of events Historyman
14. The way things are these days, it is @
times difficult to feel thankful- even today-
for much. You remind us - be thankful that
anyway, things are not even worse!
 
So the short answer is no the Arabs don't win the 1973 War, no one does. The Middle East is consumed by nuclear fire.

And possible the whole world as we came close to World War 3 over the Yom Kippur War. Even if it does not, the world are going to be reeling from the Middle East getting nuked.
 
The Arabs in 1973 were not interested in the complete destruction of Israel? Really?? Assuming that the Israeli military is truly trashed (lets forget Samson for the moment) What keeps the combined Arab armies from occupying Israel? What stops the Palestinians from coming back and evicting Israelis from property that may (or may not) have been owned by any particular Palestinian family in 1948. While some Arab leaders may have been cynical about the "wipe out the Jewish state" propaganda from 1948 onwards, as well as what went on before 1948, the vast majority of the average Arabs in the street were good with that idea - and exactly which Arab leader is going to risk the mob turning against him for "saving" Israel. If the partition plan of 1948 was considered unacceptable by the Arabs (and the "Israel" that would have been created was marginally viable for a number of reasons) what would be an "acceptable" Israel. Even assuming you had a few blobs allowed for Jews can can bet most of Israel would be occupied and very likely either become "Palestine" or "temporarily" administered by the various Arab governments "pending" a Palestinian state. The most optimistic scenario is a small demilitarized Jewish state with all (or almost all) Jews expelled and property confiscated from any territory Israel loses.

The Israeli government and people see the above as the reality. Whether or not you or I agree with this is irrelevant, this is how the government of Israel and most Israelis see things. This is why Israel developed nuclear weapons and why the "Samson option" is discussed. As I and many others have stated, simply vaporizing the Aswan Dam would destroy Egypt, perhaps one or two other targets might be hit but maybe not. You could expect the capitols of any Arab states (other than Egypt) that are actively attacking Israel to get a nuke, and Arab formations that are worth hitting and are far enough from Israel population centers get hit tactically. Hitting Mecca and Medina would, IMHO, only be done in a situation where this is truly a strike for revenge not to salvage a status quo ante bellum.

Again, my feeling is that strikes against Russia would not be performed as part of this mess unless the Russians were actively involved. My guess is that the Israelis might let the Russians know that, sure the USSR can slag Israel, but it will cost them several cities in Southern Russia/Ukraine/Crimea and do they really want to make that trade. F-4s on low level one way missions can do this.

OTL Sadat was interested in regaining Arab pride and making the Israelis give back the Sinai. HOWEVER if you had the sort of overwhelming military victory you had here, going for more was certainly in the cards. Almost for sure Assad, and many other Arab leaders would be willing to take as much as they could. As for the Palestinian, their position on Israel was clear,

Bottom line, if the Arab armies do breakthrough and threaten core israel/complete defeat, nukes fly.
 
Maybe I just don't know enough about the topic, but I find it hard to believe that Assad didn't at least suspect Israel had nukes. He wouldn't just make a kamikaze run for Tel Aviv if he beat the Israeli army in the field.
 
Maybe I just don't know enough about the topic, but I find it hard to believe that Assad didn't at least suspect Israel had nukes. He wouldn't just make a kamikaze run for Tel Aviv if he beat the Israeli army in the field.

I have no doubt the Soviets knew, and they would have informed Papa Assad exactly what the consequences of a Syrian advance on Tel Aviv would be. Hafez El Assad was a hardliner, but not stupid or suicidal.

So what would be the best possible realistic ( that is, non ASB) Arab victory in 1973? The Egyptians and Syrians fight a lot better than they did in OTL (as it was, they did a lot better than 1967, in this scenario, they do even better). Egypt crosses the Suez and regains much of the Sinai and hold it (in ATL, Israeli counter attacks are unsuccessful and they don’t almost destroy the Egyptian 3rd Army). The Syrians successfully regain much of the Golan Heights. Now, both Egypt and Syria, knowing damn well that Israel has nukes (Brezhnev would definitely have told them in the event they didn’t know), stop. They call a unilateral ceasefire (backed by the USSR in the UNSC) and let it be known they are willing to talk peace. Sadat will certainly do this, Assad may be content simply to regain most of the Golan and may not care about a deal.

This is realistically the best Arab victory I can see happening. And for this to happen, almost everything has to go right for Sadat/Assad, And almost everything has to go wrong for Meir.
 

James G

Gone Fishin'
Israel glassing Damascus, Cairo, Mecca etc just isn't realistic. Using tac nukes on advancing armies is more plausible.

There was a book written about 73 by an Israeli author. 'If Israel lost' I think it was called.
 
In OTL the egyptian attack went wrong when they tried to advance the army beyond the range of their AA rockets. Those were key in the early victories.
 
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