Assuming the UP wins, I think it would be a good idea to keep the election as close as possible - have the UP win in a couple more marginal rural seats that went to the NP/AP and perhaps have the Labour Party win a couple more seats in the cities that the UP won. Let a couple of the OTL 1948-53 Apartheid cabinet lose their seats, keeping them out of parliament and therefore moderating calls for further movement on that point. IOTL the UP won 49.18% of the national vote to 37.7% for the NP
Point of doing this would be to a) keep the UP in power, b) let them keep more of a rural focus, c) make the Labour Party an integral part of the government in that era. I don't really know anything about the SA Labour Party at the time, but it would certainly be a big change to have them in government, in a formal coalition. Then, if they don't implode by 1953 they may be able to form one of the possible competitors to the UP. Maybe leaving room for a longer term realignment where the UP shifts rightwards, eating up some of the ground the NP had, while the LP swells to become a major force.
So far as PODs. How about the simplest, have Smuts suffer an accident/death not long before the election, let him be replaced by a solid Afrikaner UP figure, then have a slightly sympathy burst. For added points, have him suffer the heart attack while at church, in his electorate (which was rural right? Standerton?)
Point of doing this would be to a) keep the UP in power, b) let them keep more of a rural focus, c) make the Labour Party an integral part of the government in that era. I don't really know anything about the SA Labour Party at the time, but it would certainly be a big change to have them in government, in a formal coalition. Then, if they don't implode by 1953 they may be able to form one of the possible competitors to the UP. Maybe leaving room for a longer term realignment where the UP shifts rightwards, eating up some of the ground the NP had, while the LP swells to become a major force.
So far as PODs. How about the simplest, have Smuts suffer an accident/death not long before the election, let him be replaced by a solid Afrikaner UP figure, then have a slightly sympathy burst. For added points, have him suffer the heart attack while at church, in his electorate (which was rural right? Standerton?)