could apartheid in South Africa last to today? if not how long could it last? and what would an apartheid South Africa look like in 2011?
could apartheid in South Africa last to today? if not how long could it last? and what would an apartheid South Africa look like in 2011?
South Africa is as fucked up as the Congo or Zimbabwe. With the vast bulk of the country in the hands of varying rebel forces with only a white enclave constituting/answering too the ‘’central government’’.
There no way Apartheid can last without genocidal brutality on the part of the white supremacist regime.
[/FONT][/SIZE]
If the whites had wanted to hold power, there's no way any "rebel forces" would pin the whites down in enclaves. The old South African Army was just too good. Look at Angola (conventional warfare against the Cubans) and Namibia (they toasted the Swapo guerillas - units like Koevet were just to good at what they did (counter-guerilla warfare) and unlike Rhodesia, the whites made up a far more significant percentage of the population (6-8 million odd whites). Nope, the whites would not be pinned down in "enclaves." No chance. No way. Not in this scenario. The blacks "might" suceed in holding a few enclaves, probably the townships, but only of the whites let them do it.
Now there I agree with you. For the whites to hold on to power, it would have to be with the use of excessive force. Could have been done, but you have to come up with a scenario where they would feel justified in doing this. Even the AWB hasn't advocated genocide, they just wanted to be seperate.
Now for an alternative scenario like this to work, what you could try would be immediately post WW2, the new "Afrikaans" Govt creates the Homelands (Ciskei, Transkei, Kwazulu) with viable territory and grants them real independance a la Lesotho and Swaziland. Then deport all the blacks back to their "homelands", keep the Cape, Orange Free State and Transvaal and maybe part of Natal (and maybe not because if you dump Natal, you get rid of most of the Indians as well as the Zulu's), allow black workers in only as temporary workers on restricted work permits, give Cape Coloureds the vote and hey presto, you have a "white" south africa thats fully democratic and you've exported all your problems. No need to jail Mandela, you just deport him back to his State of origin.
Back in 1948, those new states would have been recognized by the rest of the world (no ex-colonies to make a fuss) and the "winds of change," in South Africa at least, would have turned into a summer breeze.
This sounds like an incredibly interesting timeline.
I understand that financially the SA state was heavily indebted and getting near the end of its resources by the mid 1980s, so whether or not it had the desire to push the issue, it could not afford to do so for much longer
IIRC the only natural resource they were really short of was oil which they had to import, so as a PoD why not give them a mid-sized offshore oil deposit? Offshore means it probably wont be discovered or exploited until after they achieve independence and institute apartheid and if it's small enough to just about cover their own needs it would keep their economy chugging along nicely thanks to an improved balance of trade.I understand that financially the SA state was heavily indebted and getting near the end of its resources by the mid 1980s, so whether or not it had the desire to push the issue, it could not afford to do so for much longer
Another potential PoD is for the National Party not to be so anti-English in outlook and obsessed with Afrkaaner purity meaning that instead of restricting immigration after 1948 they make a big effort to attract European immigrants. This means another few million more whites whuch gives the state the manpower to keep things going for longer.