Here's the sixth iteration of my magnum opus, inspired by an AH Challenge from Reddie. This version takes into account criticisms from Terence before he was banned. I believe Terence was South African and knew a fair bit about the technology and geopolitical situation of the region, which necesitated revisions, primarily in the 16th and 17th Centuries.
I'll post the 16th Century and then wait awhile before posting each installment, to give people time to comment and ask question.
16th Century
POD: Leiden Falls to the Spanish (1574 AD)-Leiden in the Netherlands falls to the Spanish before relief forces can arrive.
Johannes Buckhout Plans Calvinist Exodus (1574 AD)-Buckhout fears that the Dutch cause is lost, and begins planning an escape route. He decides on the Cape of Good Hope, since it’s very far away from Europe, is a good spot for participation in the India trade, and could give the Calvinists a place to establish their utopia.
Battle of Mookerheyde (1575 AD)-This battle is another Spanish victory, and gives Buckhout more credibility.
The Exodus (1575 AD)-Fifteen ships carry the Dutch Calvinists to the Cape of Good Hope and establish Calvinist settlement there. Total initial number of settlers in South Africa is 5,000.
Foundation of the Cape Free State (1576 AD)-The Afrikaner settlement establishes the Cape Town Compact, the constitution of the Cape Free State. Said constitution limits suffrage to male heads of household, establishes the Dutch Reformed Church as the only legal religious body, and guarantees the rights of property, freedom of speech and press (except for heresy), and some other things.
Battle of Rijnsburg (1577 AD)-Here the Spanish army, overextended by its recent victories, suffers a severe blow. Leiden is recaptured soon afterward, along with The Hague.
Word of the Dutch Victory Reaches the Cape (1579 AD)-Word of the recent Spanish reversals reaches the Cape. Some of the Dutch return to Holland, but most have invested too much into the new land to leave it. Those who do return, however, bring back word of a bountiful and useful place to settle. Many poorer Dutchmen and Calvinist refugees from elsewhere in Europe will make their way to southern Africa in the coming years.
Treaty of Cape Town (1579 AD)-The Afrikaners make a treaty with the Dutch Republic. Free trade and travel between the two nations, although the Afrikaners look askance at Catholic Dutch and do not want them to own land or set up Catholic churches in their territory. Military alliance as well—Afrikaners begin preying on Spanish ships trading in the Indian Ocean.
The Great Grab (1581 AD)-The Afrikaners grab three Portuguese and two Spanish ships loaded with spices and the like. This aggravates the Portuguese community, already unhappy with Spain’s inability to defend their colonial empire from the Dutch and the Afrikaners. The Spanish government decides to seize control of the Cape of Good Hope to turn the tables on the Protestants.
Afrikaner Population Before Spanish Assault on Cape Town (1584 AD)-10,000. Much is due to immigration, although there are some African-born youngsters.
Spanish Assault on Cape Town (1584 AD)-The Spanish land a naval force in Cape Town and seize control of the city, taking the Cape militia by surprise and ejecting it from the city. The Reformed leadership is given a choice between conversion to Catholicism or the stake, and get burned.
Battle of Solomon’s Hill (1584 AD)-The Spanish soldiers pursue the Afrikaners into the bush. The Afrikaners, who’re all mounted infantrymen, manoeuvre around them and destroy the fort (and the supplies therein) at Solomon’s Hill. Although the Spanish get some help (food, water, and guides) from natives annoyed at the land-grabbing tendencies of the Dutch settlers, they can’t get ammunition.
Battle of Towsrivier (1584 AD)-Low on ammo and slowly being attrited by Afrikaner hit-and-run mounted attacks, the tercios begin making their way back to the captured city. Unfortunately, the Afrikaners get them in a bad spot, encircle them, and destroy them in detail. The Afrikaners, angry at the execution of their churchmen, return the favour and show no quarter.
Cape Town Liberated (1584 AD)-The Afrikaner militia returns to the city in force. The citizens rebel and eject the Spanish troops. The battle begins when a group of Afrikaner slip into the town and hijack one of the two Spanish ships, sinking the other one and then turning its guns on the Spanish occupation forces. The main body of the Afrikaner militia invades the city and the citizens rebel. The Spanish are massacred.
Conscription, Expansion, Immigration Policy Established (1585 AD)-The Afrikaners are determined not to allow something like that to happen again. A more formal military policy is established, along with a coherent scheme to expand their political control outside of the Cape region—it was the ability to retreat into the hinterland that enabled the Cape militia to defeat the Spanish, and the local Africans cannot be trusted not to help the Spanish. The Afrikaners also decide to try to attract more immigrants from Europe, to make sure their population base is large enough to maintain a powerful military AND a productive economy. The Afrikaners also send word to the Dutch about how the Cape of Good Hope is a good spot to interdict Spanish/Portuguese commerce in the Indian Ocean.
The Bushman War (1586-8 AD)-Afrikaners devastate the San and Khoi, establishing their control over the southern interior regions of present-day South Africa. Perhaps 60% of the Bushmen are killed in the war, while the remainder are enslaved. However, these new slaves all die within ten years due to disease and simply not being able to hold up.
Edict of Nantes (1598)-Henri IV converts to Catholicism in order to be crowned King of France. The Afrikaners complain about this compromise, and predict dire results.