Any one up for a Germany wank again?

  • Thread starter Deleted member 1487
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enormous improvements could be made to the German resource [...] situation.

I'm not all that convinced. While tungsten is a strategic material and I had overlooked it because I was looking at the world production of 1937, "enormous improvements" to the German needs as to raw materials would be when they can acquire for cheap and securely receive the delivery of oil, foodstuffs, rubber, aluminium, phosphates, iron. Indeed it's not for nothing that the single largest item in the list is 2 million tons of iron ore. These are certainly useful, still they are under 1 sixth of the yearly imports from much closer Sweden.
As to the other items on the list; manganese or zinc are surely useful, for instance, but it's not as if Germany itself wasn't producing them. Nickel came from Finland, etc.

In short, the deal would be good, if it could be done; it would have its costs and risks; in any case it can't be called an "enormous improvement". Such a definition would be OK for the Japanese capture of the DEI rubber, or if the Germans had taken all the three oilfields in the Caucasus, or if the British had been able to rerout the Scandinavian iron to themselves.
 

Deleted member 1487

Many of the materials procured from China were ones that were necessary anyway, and are being bought from Asia instead of other sources, probably for cheaper, considering the unequal nature of the exchange. Overall the money is coming from whatever historical resources companies and the government used to purchase these resources. Extras are also being bought to create a stockpile just in case, as the lessons of the blockade are remembered from the first world war. Money for that is coming out of the defense budget, which is larger, as proportionally the German economy is larger at this time than historical for several reasons. These include Austria being added sooner to the overall economy, greater resources being added to national economic recovery instead of rearmament, and the resumption of trade a bit earlier, as Germany is not seen by Britain as a threat, rather a national regime working to rejoin the nations of the world. It also helps that this Regime is not anti-semetic, so there is not the backlash from the world jewish federation either. In fact, many Jewish economists and industrialists are working with the government to recover the economy. Without the brain drain that occurred over the course of Hitler's rule, things are improving more rapidly.

Note, that the DNF is not an organisation like the Nazis; there is no take over of the nation in the same dicatorial manner. Rather Germany is still a republic, it is just that the policies of the DNF leadership are helping Germany to recover, so they are getting more votes and Fuchs is able to push his demands through the Reichstag without trouble. As a result, world opinion looks at Germany not as a rogue nation, but as simply a recovering power.

Fuchs also is not looking for European domination, rather his is trying to create for Germany an economic dominance that can be achieved peacefully. He is also looking to take back German territory and reestablish the balance of power by safe, diplomatic means.
 

Deleted member 1487

1937

By 1937, Germany was well along the path to rearmament. German troop strength was up to 500,000 men thanks to a reintroduction of conscription. This level would be maintained for a longer interval than previous training spurts, as many soldiers still needed to be sufficiently trained. The creation of the German mountain corps also occured this year, with a large concentration of Austrian specialists significantly present. Additionally, the Panzer Korps was expanded to include up to 3 divisions, but was notably short of combat vehicles. This shortage was somewhat ameliorated by the inclusion of only 1 regiment of panzers per division. Mostly though, the divisions were cadres that were still in training.

The Luftwaffe has also established itself several different force aspects. Units were trained for Close Air Support, Tactical Bombing, and Strategic bombing. Initially the Luftwaffe was conceived as flying artillery to support the army's advance when they outran their artillery support. But men like Walther Wever were adament that the LW have heavy bombers as a deterent; if other nations had such a force to attack civilian centers, Germany should be able to retaliate. He essentially called for an early version of MAD. Also Heavy bombers could be used as deep strike artillery to attack rail hubs beyond the range of tactical bombers. This would be the smallest of all units in the LW, but the platform would later prove useful for several successful scout, ground support, and transport variations. The final crowning achievment of the LW was the formation of the FJ (paratrooper) division that would late expand into a corps.

The Navy was still the step child of the German military. Last in funding, the navy was only able to focus on small vessels such as 3 cruisers of all types and several new destroyers. More Uboots were added, but overall numbers remained low.

In China, despite the intervention of German 'volunteer' units in the war, Japanese forces were able to push deep into the north provinces. After the occupation of Beijing (Peking) the Japanese struck south, slowly grinding towards Nanking. Valiant resistance seemed to delay, not stop the Japanese invaders. Finally it desperation, the sole brigade of German Panzers was deployed enmass against the Japanese flank at Xuzhou. Despite being gravely outnumbered, the vehicles were able to inflict a crushing defeat against the forces opposing them. They were only stopped when they outran their infantry support and were attacked by suicide squads that threw themselves under the treads of the Panzers hoping to blow a track of the vehicles. Eventually this tactic stalled the tankers and caused a withdrawal. An important lesson in combined arms was learned and would not be forgot after the brutal lesson learned. Nanking was saved for the time being, as the Chinese followed up on this success which forced the Japanese to withdraw from their forward positions. The Condor legion also contributed, launching massed attacks on Japanese forces, with tactical and CAS units using a new napalm bomb. This terrifying weapon proved devastatingly effective and became a valued weapon of the LW. Sadly for the legion one of their commanders died in the battle when his fighter was shot down, WW1 ace Herman Goering.

Overall the political front in Europe was quiet, despite the Spanish Civilwar raging. The concern of the league of nations was palable as the Italians and Soviets continued to aid their respective sides. The great powers stood aloof and continued to focus on domestic issues. By now the economies of most of Europe had bounced back and trade continued to expand. Germany was reveling in its economic recovery. For the first time since 1914, unemployment was down below 3%. It seemed that the situation continued to improve, as new industries like Volkswagen expanded its business. War and upheaval seemed like a thing of the past as old animostities were forgotten and new deals forged.
However, Fuchs and his brain trust were still intent on completing the reversal of the treaty of Versailles. The little entente still existed and surrounded Germany in its vise. The best way to test the international good will that Fuchs had built was to see how far he could push his claims over minorities over the border. Poland was still too strong if it came to war, so the Czechs were to be the next focus. The Sudeten was a crucial territory and to reclaim it would neuter Czech opposition.
Quietly, Germany began to fund seperatist movements and sought to stir up old resentments. When enough of a climate of unrest was established, Fuchs would call for a conference to decide the issue in his favor. Chamberlin was seemingly supportive of German attempts to reestablish herself. It would just remain to be seen how far he would go in his support...
 

Deleted member 1487

Cultural effects

As a result of the German efforts in China, the perception of Germany in the US began to rehabilitate. After the Great War, anti-German sentiment was still high and only later would recede. But with the war in China raging and the German volunteer legions opposing the Japanese expansion, it seemed that they became the good guys in the view of many Americans. Reports of Japanese atrocities against civilians were becoming more common in America and it seemed that the only people willing to fight back were the Germans. It also helped that in 1938 the film "from here to eternity" was released that depicted a heroic German pilot in love with a Chinese girl, who he saves in the "battle for nanking". The panay incident was also a driving factor in the upswing in public sympathy for Germany, as the Germans managed to fight off the Japanese attacking the US gunship. Eventually even some Veterans from the War began to agree with the sentiment 'I hardly remember what we were fighting them for".

The British though were of a mixed opinion. Hard feelings still endured from the war years, but many people felt sympathy for the harsh treatment dished out at Versailles. This was aided by the feeling that the French were terrible allies, a sentiment that developed after the War. Many politicians, Chamberlin included felt that the Entente with France was no longer the worthwhile relationship and felt that the future of Britain was with Germany. Despite this upswing in opinion, there were still the hardcore nationalists that hated Germany and felt that the political leadership was just helping the 'Hun' get ready for the rematch. The announcement of rearmament and the reoccupation of the Rhineland just fueled the opinions of these groups. The central figure was Churchill, who was quietly gaining influence and allies in parliment, hoping to topple the Chamberlin government.

The French were becoming increasingly fearful that the British were abandoning them and compesated by rearming, preparing themselves for the next round with Germany. It was hoped that soon France would be strong enough to stand with her little Entente allies against German expansion without the need for Britain. Many still feared that the declining population, especially in relation to their fecund neighbors, would still require Britain as an ally. Members of the French government were aware of Churchill's stance and several held informal meetings with him to support him in his goal.

Italy was a unique state. As the largest Fascist nation, Italy was seeking to expand its power base. Diplomats were able to create a dialogue with other Fascist states like Portugal and Hungary. Eventually Italy was able to create a 'pact of steel' with states like Portugal and Romania and eventually Spain too. This was less than an alliance, but would enable greater cooperation of the signing states. Hungary was courted too, but would remain outside the pact until later collusion brought it into dialogue with Mussolini.
 
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Diplomats were able to create a dialogue with other Fascist states like Portugal, Romania, and Hungary.
Erm, you've derailed a bit. In the late thirties, Romania wasn't fascist. It was a monarchist oligocracy. The King and his Camarilla played the various parties against each other.
 
Many of the materials procured from China were ones that were necessary anyway, and are being bought from Asia instead of other sources, probably for cheaper, considering the unequal nature of the exchange. Overall the money is coming from whatever historical resources companies and the government used to purchase these resources.

I suggest you a reading of Overy and Tooze, for starters. Then you will see the economic aspects you are overlooking. Then again, when you do, this idea will need some more work.
 
nice development, wiking

here a country will play a role in this TL

Belgium
after the Invasion of German in "The Great War" (1914-1918)
the Goverrment were afraid of another Invasion by Germany
and start to build Bunker defence line at city of Liege
(a extension of Frenchs Maginot Line bunker complex http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maginot_Line )

near towns Ében-Émael, Aubin-Neufchâteau, Battice and Tancrémont near Pepinster
the Fort des Waides près de Manaihant and Fort de Sougné-Remouchamps, were Planned but never build.

they had to delay a german invasion until French and British troop are ready to attack the Germans Invasion.
but with the economic problems of the time, some bunker were bad equipt, with less or smaler Guns
to make thinks worse the important bunker of Ében-Émael was used as correctional Boot camp by belgium military !
(in OTL chaos brake loose there, as the Wehrmacht Blitzkrieg came...)

but wat if French goverment give the Belgiums financial aid to complett ALL the Bunker as Planned ?
in that case a German invasion had allot trouble to get true this,
in case of War the Wehrmacht will invade the Netherlands to by pass north of Defence line

in Belgium political thinks wend wrong in 1930s
The french Wallons Clerical fascism Rexist party gain popularity http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rexism
the dutch Flemish wandet Independence from Belgium http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flanders
represented by extrem rights party VNV http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vlaamsch_Nationaal_Verbond

in OTL those party wend in late 1930s on cooperation with NAZI Party ( take over of NAZI antisemitism politic)
after occupation of Belgium VNV and Rexist party went to collaboration with the NAZI
(is ironic, but those two partys never work together ! )

so and in this TL ?
extrem rights Rexist party will make cooperation with fascist Italy (because simlear goals of the Clerical fascism)
the VNV maybe cooperate with Germany
in case of Flemish Independence, Germany gets Treaty for free movement of Export or Military
(something simlear had the German Empire planned in case they win the Great War)
 

Deleted member 1487

I suggest you a reading of Overy and Tooze, for starters. Then you will see the economic aspects you are overlooking. Then again, when you do, this idea will need some more work.


Understood, I have read some of Overy, but that was a while back. Right now I have 'Wages of Destruction', but due to school I haven't had time to get beyond the second chapter.
As for the cash flow issue, I am abstracting quite a bit, but the early focus on the economy and job creation programs, coupled with the earlier expansion of the economy by absorbing Austria in 1934, and the economic understanding with Britain (which I haven't really ennuciated properly) have all contributed to a larger than historical German economy. The foundation of the Volkswagen company, which increases the motorization of the German population through its cheap cars, also has increased the size of the economy through exports to Eastern and some Western nations, as well as creating a variety of local industries (dealerships, mechanics, parts wholesalers).

The other factor in German rearmament, other than starting later with larger funding and neglecting the navy, is that it is responsibly managed by professionals, such as a surviving Max Bauer and other experienced members of the Economic Mobilization board from WW1. Things are progressing more efficiently, as the development process, the horrific mismanagment, and the kleptocracy of the Nazi state are not present in this TL. Instead of a will to power and the competing organizations that exemplified the Hitlerian survival of the fittest policies, the DNF and Fuchs have organized a collusion of the best minds for the return of the German state to a competetive economic and military structure.

As for the various military and economic organizations, I will do seperate write ups for the various leadership structures later on. At the moment I am a bit busy and that requires a bit of research instead of imagination.
 

Deleted member 1487

Redux

This is going to be a bit of a redux, as I have heeded Michele's advice and read a bit more about the money situation in a rearming Germany. Basically the involvement with China will be more informal until the invasion of China by Japan. Instead of an extensive trading relationship, Germany will be getting what resources it can afford. Also the training centers to circumvent the ToV is still in place, but German efforts in the field are limited. Also there is a German effort to help industrialize China, much like in the 1920's. However this effort is mostly involving advice and expertise than any material effort.
 

perfectgeneral

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Is this re-industrialisation market lead or a planned economy? In the fifties the Japanese planted the seed of their economic miracle with a planned restructuring and trade protection measures. Only later did they free up the market (largely due to pressure from trade partners).

Britain saw through it, but the US insisted on admitting Japan to GATT. Heavy investment in German growth might bribe the US into favourable trade terms with Fuchs' Germany.

An oligarchy/cartel of corporate national industry groups owned by each other, the banks and the government is the sort of rigged economy that grows strongly given uneven trade practices.

All steel production by one corporation, owned by the main domestic customers for steel and the national bank. Heavy investment from the bank in the form of preferential loans with a near majority share in the company as collateral.

All car production by one corporation, owned by the main domestic customers for cars, the steel company and the national bank. Heavy investment from the bank in the form of preferential loans with a near majority share in the company as collateral.

All chemical production by one corporation...
All armaments production by one corporation...
All shipbuilding by one corporation...
All machine tools by one corporation...
All aircraft by one corporation...

Imports restricted to technology transfers and unavailable raw materials by government.

These inter-owned monopoly corporations are prevented from price control and restrictive practices in the domestic market by the national bank that has control through massive loans and share collateral. This national bank is controlled by the government trade and industry department. A nationalist cartel. These corporations can be disguised as separate companies (and formed into 'competing' corporations) through inter ownership of shares and a large minority public shareholding (eg VW, Porshe, Daimler, Mercedes, etc.). The banks shares are just collateral and so 'officially' still owned by the shareholders. Each 'separate' company would sell models in different niches of the market. All would use the same parts suppliers. Each parts company would provide different types of parts. All using the same processed materials companies. One spring steel company, one light sheet steel company, one heavysheet steel company, one tube company, one rod and beam company, etc.

On the face of it branches of the monopolies would be separate companies, but they are brought together through inter-ownership and state control of their debts into a cartel. The trade monopolies are continued as long as the companies borrow to the point of bankruptcy (beyond even) at very low interest, to invest in research, productivity and production capacity growth.

A planned domestic economy disguised as a free market economy. A free market for export. A restricted market for import.

Dirty pool.
 
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Deleted member 1487

Interesting, could you site some sources related to this; I would like to read up on this model. It also make sense for this TL too. I believe pre-WW2 German companies were increasingly forming into Cartels like IG Farben.
 

Deleted member 1487

Poltical developments up to 1938

By 1938, the Sino-Japanese was in full swing, with most of the Chinese coast in the north captured by the Japanese, but much of the country side controlled by Guerillas. In Spain the civil war raged, with neither side able to achieve more than a stalemate. Despite routine atrocities by both sides, nothing real was achieved save for the further desolation of the nation.
In Central Europe, tensions waxed again with the increase of ethnic tensions in Czechoslovakia. In addition to the increase in Slovak nation agitation, in the Sudeten borderlands, German ethnic minorities began civil disobedience and demanded unification with Germany. This situation culminated in Fuchs' demands for the Sudeten region. Chamberlain once again sought to play the negotiator and a conference was called at the Haig in the Netherlands to resolve the issue. France naturally opposed any German demands, but as Britain was not will to support them in this nationalistic stance, France turned to the little entente. However, Poland was bought off with the Teschen region, that they were deprived of during the treaty of Versailles. In the short sighted desire to profit from the misfortunes of their neighbor, Poland caused the final death of the French ring of alliances shackling Germany.
With an additional 3 million citizens and the associated industry of the Sudeten, Germany became that much stronger. Additionally within Britain, the policy became and informal alliance with Germany, as the economic relationship was becoming quite beneficial. France had taken an increasing authoriatarian turn, which to many in Britain, was becoming worrisome. Additionally there was increasing competition between the two nations, which further estranged them politically. However, the faction led by Churchill was still very committed to the French alliance and maneuvered carefully to unseat Chamberlain.
But with the end of this latest crisis, Fuchs had pushed his agenda too far. The French were aware that their support structure had fallen away and a stand had to be taken. With Britain an unreliable associate at best, France increasingly turned to Poland and later Italy for support. This flirtation with Fascist Italy would further alienate Britain, but would only incense conservative hatred for Chamberlain for driving France so far away.
More later....
 
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