Antwerp open for business September 1944

At the beginning of September 1944 the British 11th Armoured Division captured the port of Antwerp with its dock facilities intact. Its use however was delayed by the Germans retaining control of the approaches to it.

If the Allies had been able to take control of the Scheldt Estuary as well as the port, and had been able to immediately start using it, what effect would this have had on the supply situation and what would this do for the Western Allied advance?


 

Ramp-Rat

Monthly Donor
This is one of the great WI’s of WWII, PNM1, a small change that could have massif results. Starting with no Market Garden, as the ground troops are being used to clear the Germans out of the Scheldt Estuary. The lose to the Germans of their 15th? Army, and a much ealyer clearing of the Dutch sea coast, will probably mean no starvation winter in Holland.
You can now transfer all fuel stocks in Normandy to the Americans, as the British will get there’s through Antwerp. And if you start doing a triangle run, UK to Normandy to Antwerp to UK, you can move all British only supplies with out using road transport.
More than this I leave to others better qualified than me to speculate on.
 
At best a six-week advance, since the estuary was cleaned anyway in November 1944, and there were still powerful German forces to remove on the Belgian coast and in the Kempen. Interesting, yes. Dramatic, no.

It was one of the highest feats of Belgian resistance to display the sabotage of the Antwerp foreseen by the Germans. The resistance had managed to get hold of the plans for the explosive charges and the mines, and to remove them all when the Brits approached the city.
 
At the beginning of September 1944 the British 11th Armoured Division captured the port of Antwerp with its dock facilities intact. Its use however was delayed by the Germans retaining control of the approaches to it.

If the Allies had been able to take control of the Scheldt Estuary as well as the port, and had been able to immediately start using it, what effect would this have had on the supply situation and what would this do for the Western Allied advance?




In OTL after the failure of Market-Garden the allies returned to clearing Antwerp approaches in early Oct 44 and it continued until 8 Nov. The mine cleanup took three weeks and the first ship arrived on 28 Nov. I also remember reading that the first four weeks Antwerp only manage to offload some 10.000 tons a day (roughly as much as coming by train from southern France). Only in the end of December did Antwerp open fully to provide 40.000 tons / day. However by that time the Arden counteroffensive stalled the allied progress which was renewed only in January 45.


In the ATL it would probably took just a few days to secure accesses to Antwerps as they were by then empty and German forces returned only with withdrawal from the Pas de Calais area. Therefore it is possible to assume that by, say, 10 Sep the approaches could be clear for demining. That would open Antwerps for limited operation by the end of September and since the end of September / early October the Antwerp could be running at full speed, capable of supplying all attacking forces in the west.

Unlike in OTL, when untill the end of 1944 the allies only managed to supply a limited number of attacking forces, in ATL there could be a broad offensive by mid - end of October. By then allies would have in France some 60+ divisions of which 30 could be used for attack. That was roughly twice as much as in OTL, when allies attacked mostly only in the Hurtgen Forrest.

With 30 instead of 15 divisions attacking on a broad front by the end of October 44 it is likely that Germans would have to use the forces reserved for the Ardennes for stopping the allied onslaught, so probably no surprising counteroffensive slows the allies down.

How long it would take to reach Rhine I can't say as the allies in October 44 would be some 25-30 divisions weaker than the allies of March 45.
 
Opening Antwerp was half the equation. Restoration of the Franco Belgian railroads was the other major portion. Starting point for that was Cherbourg, & then in August Le Hrave with its railway ferry dock. Opening Antwerp before the end of September provides a third starting point for railway repair, in north Central Belgium. This two months earlier than OTL.

.... The lose to the Germans of their 15th? Army, ....

Not yet learned the numbers for that. 4th Sept a large portion seem to have still been fleeing north along the coast by foot, vehicle, & barge. Were the Canadian Army given the fuel & some paras to seize the ferry sites on Walchern & Beveland perhaps half the men under the ageas of 15th Army may have been captured. 50,000 surrenderd when the Falaise pocket disolved, 25,000 in the Mons pocket or near it, Perhaps another 25,000 on Bourges Ridge & other locations in central France. Would the take from the 'Flanders pocket' been 10, 25, 50k, or more?
 
The loss to the Germans of their 15th Army...
Were the Canadian Army given the fuel and some paratroopers to seize the ferry sites on Walcheren and Beveland perhaps half the men under the aegis of 15th Army may have been captured. 50,000 surrendered when the Falaise pocket dissolved, 25,000 in the Mons pocket or near it. Perhaps another 25,000 on Bourges Ridge and other locations in central France. Would the take from the 'Flanders pocket' been 10, 25, 50k, or more?
You likely wouldn't get an airborne drop on Walcheren, the airborne commanders were asked to take a look at doing so and refused stating that the terrain was unsuitable, I'm not sure whether they were asked to look at South Beveland, North and South Beveland still being separate islands back then, or not though. One of my ideal scenarios over this would be for 11th Armoured Division to detach an armoured regiment and push it north to take Hoogerheide, there seems to be mixed sources on whether they had the petrol necessary, at the base of the peninsula. At the same time an airborne forces are dropped on South Beveland with orders to secure it and cross over to do likewise for North Beveland, others are dropped around Hoogerheide to help capture it and provide infantry support for the armoured regiment until other units catch up. IIRC from the last time I looked at it heavy field artillery like the 155mm 'Long Tom' gun sited on the south-western end of South Beveland would of had the range to drop shells on all of West Scheldt and the area of the North Sea between Walcheren and what became the Breskens pocket in our timeline. Rupture the sea wall to flood Walcheren and keep the artillery supplied with enough illumination and time fused high explosive shells and it makes the evacuation of 15th Army much more difficult.

Capturing Hoogerheide would also have to added benefit of having crossed the Albert Canal meaning the next major defensive positions would be Breda, Tilburg, and Eindhoven, or possibly even the Wilhelmina Canal and Wessen Canal just to the rear of them if the Germans decide to retreat behind them. That in turn opens up some interesting possibilities if an Operation Market Garden were to be attempted say three of four weeks later than in our timeline since the distance would be reduced, the forces involved would be facing fewer opponents, and it would provide more time to get units into place before the off.
 
In OTL after the failure of Market-Garden the allies returned to clearing Antwerp approaches in early Oct 44 and it continued until 8 Nov. The mine cleanup took three weeks and the first ship arrived on 28 Nov. I also remember reading that the first four weeks Antwerp only manage to offload some 10.000 tons a day (roughly as much as coming by train from southern France). Only in the end of December did Antwerp open fully to provide 40.000 tons / day. However by that time the Arden counteroffensive stalled the allied progress which was renewed only in January 45.


In the ATL it would probably took just a few days to secure accesses to Antwerps as they were by then empty and German forces returned only with withdrawal from the Pas de Calais area. Therefore it is possible to assume that by, say, 10 Sep the approaches could be clear for demining. That would open Antwerps for limited operation by the end of September and since the end of September / early October the Antwerp could be running at full speed, capable of supplying all attacking forces in the west.

Unlike in OTL, when untill the end of 1944 the allies only managed to supply a limited number of attacking forces, in ATL there could be a broad offensive by mid - end of October. By then allies would have in France some 60+ divisions of which 30 could be used for attack. That was roughly twice as much as in OTL, when allies attacked mostly only in the Hurtgen Forrest.

With 30 instead of 15 divisions attacking on a broad front by the end of October 44 it is likely that Germans would have to use the forces reserved for the Ardennes for stopping the allied onslaught, so probably no surprising counteroffensive slows the allies down.

How long it would take to reach Rhine I can't say as the allies in October 44 would be some 25-30 divisions weaker than the allies of March 45.


I made quite a mistake, for which I apologize. Opening of Antwerp in limited extent in the end of September/early October and full operation only since end of October/early November.

I should have paid more attention at school, when they were saying that 9+2 is 11, not 10.

Carl Schwamberger is also right when he says that another factor was the state of railway in Belgium, Luxembourg and northern France. But taking consideration of capacity of the Antwerp and its proximity to battlefield, I guess the engineers would give it priority over railway to Brest, Le Havre or even Marseille.
 
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