Antonescu convinces Mussolini

In July 1943 as the allied invasion of Sicily was underway, Antonescu flew to italy for talks with Mussolini. Basically, Antonescu argued that the war was lost and that the minor axis powers (Italy, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and Finland) should all offer to leave the war together. Mussolini rejects the idea.

Suppose instead that Mussolini sees the merits and pushes the idea

The three big questions this raises are:

What terms would the allies offer..Antonescu is a realist here. So he probably would offer neutrality and then up the offer to the minor powers joining the allies

How does Hitler respond

And finally, what would the post war world look like
 
I think that for most of the nations in question, the major problem was that Germany in mid-1943 had some real strength left and was still in a position to hurt them dearly if they turned their coats at that point. So, in terms of saving their population and infrastructure from the damage a war against Germany would have caused them, it would be seen as beneficial to wait for Germany to fall back and get weaker before abandoning it.

This is exactly what the Finnish leaders thought, at least. The nation was so dependent on Germany for not only weapons and materiel but also food and fuels that turning against Germany in 1943 would have seen to many as akin to cutting their own throat. None of these nations would want Soviet troops on their soil to fight the Germans, either, so they would be all alone against the Nazis when their reprisal campaign(s) start.

So, this is one of the questions that needs to be answered: why would the leaders of these nations be ready to risk such damage by abandoning Germany early?
 
I think you'd need an earlier POD for the defectors to stand a chance against German retaliation. If Mussolini makes up his mind in mid-late 1942 and starts secret negotiations with the Allies, it is possible that Italy will be ready ro face Hitler's wrath. The other Axis power can quietly desert when Hitler is focused on the Stalingrad debacle and the Italian volte-face.
 
These dictators should just: appoint someone (non fascist) to take over and jump on a plane and fly to Spain. The Allies are not going to want to deal with any of them. Don't worry about terms with the Allies (just hope they judge you fairly after the war and get points for doing this step)
The appointed replacement, needs to:
a) Issue orders (perhaps jointly with the previous dictators signature as well), to re position forces toward the center of power (Rome, Bucharest, etc...)
b) Immediately declare war on Germany and start rounding people up
c) The replacements need to not do any retaliation against members of the previous fascist regime but note to them how they will be treated after the war in a large part will be determined what they do right now.

In the case of Italy a show of resistance, Naples style, might just push the Allies to support you with whatever they can push forward. Finland is isolated enough to get away with it. Romania and Bulgaria and Hungary have to hope a general German Balkan collapse can occur.

The old dictators have to hope they can get away with exile in Spain or more to South America when the heat gets too big.
 
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