Another nuetral italy/ central powers

So, to be breif because this has been kinda done a fair bit but i was think of something very interesting in the case of italy being nuetral. That is its navy and national progression which is what i am going to focus on rather than the war itself if you wish to discuss that fair enough but i want to bring something foward now that is the italian navy. See by their entry they had constructed a total of 5 dreadnoughts with four of them actually being finishrd and commissioned within in nearly a years time span ( though one of them had an accident which rendered it stuck in port) that is impressive for a country with with such poor industry outside of the northwest. I do understand that they were gdp percentage wise dumping the most into their navy with britain close. So if they remained nuetral how do you think this growth would go because they scrapped a lot of planned ships including many dreadnaughts and were unable to repair the damaged dreadnought because of the cost of the war. If they remained nuetral they could repair and continue this expansion. I wouldn’t be supised if they managed to crank atleast 1 year. So if by wars end they have atleast two more dreadnoughts in their navy possibly more. I also feel this will effect the war because as the italians continue to build they become more credible threat meaning it would become harder and harder to bully italy around such as denying trade to germany. This could have so many interesting effects and i would really like to discuss it.
 
Well, without the crippling cost of the war, at least the Carracciolo class Battleships will be built, maybe some experimental aircraft carrier
 
Well, without the crippling cost of the war, at least the Carracciolo class Battleships will be built, maybe some experimental aircraft carrier
Indeed.
I suspect that as the war continues both sides especially the entente will push harder to either keep italy nuetral or join their side especially as time passes i assume it would become more and more dangerous for the entente if Italy chose the powers, so a blockade could be risky. How do you think the other nations react?
 

gurgu

Banned
Italy neutral is considered the best scenario for the country for many reasons:
  1. no Cadorna stupid war tactic and more time to modernize army/strategy by watching the others kill each other
  2. Prosperity for italian economy, basically the USA of Europe by producing and selling to whoever needs(1929 will be on higher impact)
  3. Time to fix the difference between north/south
  4. Time to sedate revolt in Libya and at least make a good railway/Highway to better connections, also the immigration of Italians to make it more italianized, might discover sooner the oil, making italy richer.
  5. as point 4 but in eritrea and Somalia
  6. if i remember well, the CP respected the italian will to stay neutral( the alliance was defensive so italy wasn't betraying) and to encourage it to stay neutral they promised trento instantly and french territories if they win( Nizza,savoy,Tunis and the full coast sea of African horn, linking Eritrea to Somalia.
  7. Mussolini is not ranked corporal in the army, and stay "socialist", d'annunzio or balbo will create the real fascist party, since the first is too old i think Balbo might make it to win elections( more charismatic than Mussolini) and create some right government( not totally fascist, still democratic but he'll be able to win the elections for a while) and focus on the Air forces and Libyan integration by giving citizenship to senussites and thus maybe stopping the revolts
 
Italy neutral is considered the best scenario for the country for many reasons:
  1. no Cadorna stupid war tactic and more time to modernize army/strategy by watching the others kill each other
  2. Prosperity for italian economy, basically the USA of Europe by producing and selling to whoever needs(1929 will be on higher impact)
  3. Time to fix the difference between north/south
  4. Time to sedate revolt in Libya and at least make a good railway/Highway to better connections, also the immigration of Italians to make it more italianized, might discover sooner the oil, making italy richer.
  5. as point 4 but in eritrea and Somalia
  6. if i remember well, the CP respected the italian will to stay neutral( the alliance was defensive so italy wasn't betraying) and to encourage it to stay neutral they promised trento instantly and french territories if they win( Nizza,savoy,Tunis and the full coast sea of African horn, linking Eritrea to Somalia.
  7. Mussolini is not ranked corporal in the army, and stay "socialist", d'annunzio or balbo will create the real fascist party, since the first is too old i think Balbo might make it to win elections( more charismatic than Mussolini) and create some right government( not totally fascist, still democratic but he'll be able to win the elections for a while) and focus on the Air forces and Libyan integration by giving citizenship to senussites and thus maybe stopping the revolts
Agreed i do think that there might be a belief that they possibly missed out. But it will also change the dynamic of Europe a fair bit as italy would probably continue uninterrupted in growth. The question is who wins? Because this could very much effect how it will turn out in the future. If it is a entente victory i do not see much changing outside of italy but i do also think that the other powers will start to effect italy a fair bit more as they would be reached the point that they can’t afford to ingore italy. Also how does the Great Depression effect italy because Mussolini did manage to get italy through that relatively unscathed. Do you think balbo will implement a much similar economic plan?.

If the cp win then that could havr so many butterflies if the austrians are unable to keep their empire going we may see italy swoop in.
The thing about the proto fascists until Mussolini they were too my understanding much more monarchist in nature especially balbo and Ciano.
 
Each side makes Italy ever-grander promises of territory while the Italians trade with both sides to immense profit. When one side looks weak near the end of the war, Italy jump in to cash in. Either she takes Corsica, Tunisia, Savoy, Djibouti, British Somaliland, and perhaps a few other minor Allied colonies -or- Dalmatia, Trentino, and a few other choice locations of Central Power influence.
 
Agreed i do think that there might be a belief that they possibly missed out. But it will also change the dynamic of Europe a fair bit as italy would probably continue uninterrupted in growth. The question is who wins? Because this could very much effect how it will turn out in the future. If it is a entente victory i do not see much changing outside of italy but i do also think that the other powers will start to effect italy a fair bit more as they would be reached the point that they can’t afford to ingore italy. Also how does the Great Depression effect italy because Mussolini did manage to get italy through that relatively unscathed. Do you think balbo will implement a much similar economic plan?.

If the cp win then that could havr so many butterflies if the austrians are unable to keep their empire going we may see italy swoop in.
The thing about the proto fascists until Mussolini they were too my understanding much more monarchist in nature especially balbo and Ciano.
Wouldn’t Italy not joining have a big impact on the Central Powers especially if Italy is trading with them during war. Austria freed up on one major front. Wouldn’t that help the war effort out east and in Balkans greatly? Austria-Hungary and Bulgaria deal with the Balkan enemies. Austria can also help Germany secure things out east better after they win there. That could help allow Germany to commit more men out west for one final push. Germany probably takes Paris especially if American involvement is butterflied away. Germany might not make the same mistake with the US with less pressure on the central powers.

Italy would get a lot out of Germany and Central Powers winning. Nice, Savoy, Corsica, Tunis, Djibouti, and maybe some of Greece if they still joined as otl. Germany could also convince Austria to rework its borders a bit with Italy by giving them the more ethnically Italian border regions. Italy would be a quickly growing power but Germany would still outclass them militarily by a good bit. Germany also just handed Italy a lot just to screw over France and entente more. Italy would extend its alliance to Germany to a full one after ww1. Bulgaria and Italy could become the dominant force in the Balkans especially if Austria-Hungary still eventually falls part. If that empire falls apart Italy could get even more land or just Dalmatia which makes them a rather decent size power. Italy might even try to take over Ethiopia but in the mid 20s. That’s still going to be considered a national disgrace and Italy will still look to remedy/revenge that lost. Italy would be in a roaring 20s like the US due to neutrality and wealth trading with the rebuilding central powers(maybe even forgive Austrian debts for land). The UK is weaken and Germany doesn’t fear or dislike Italy and are actually getting more and more friendly by the year. France hates Italy for what it did after the war but it’s opinion is ignored because they can’t oppose Germany and the central powers. Italy can do what it wants to Ethiopia if they have the ability to win. Ethiopia could be Italy testing out its new modernized military and expanding during a time of prosperity and peace(for them. The rest of Europe not so much). Italy could maybe even buy the British Somalia at some point. They have ability to create Italian majorities in Libya, Tunis, Greek Islands, maybe Dalmatia, and the coastal Horn of Africa. Inland Horn of Africa or otl Ethiopia are never going to be truly majority Italian in anyway. At best you can get a very Italicized but still separate local culture there. Other possibility for Italian expansion is the ottomans after the war. Germany might win in Europe but Ottomans probably still lose to the Brits. Italy might use the genocides there as an excuse to get involved and enforce a edited partition of ottomans while negotiating with Britain. Germany supports Italy in this in hopes it helps salvage German interest and influence there(Baghdad railroad). Britain agrees to it because Italy in the greatest position and most able/willing to provide military effort to enforce partition on the ottomans and Turks(Italy likely very heavily favor Greeks and Armenians when partitioning them and maybe even tries to snag Constantinople). Italy might also provide a great amount of help or support to Germany and the White Army in Eastern Europe and Russia. Italy still in one piece and growing(at least until the Great Depression hits). Many nations and empires are facing major internal problems or falling part. Italy can project itself in the 20s more then it was ever allowed to in otl.
 
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so, i created quick timline. The pro war faction prove unable to obtain the support of the royals leading to neutrality being the route taken. Italians sign a promise of neutral with the central powers with the transfer of trentino, new border along the izonso and the promise and protection of italian culture in Istria and Dalmatia.
This part will be made public with a german guarantee and timetable as it is the only way the italians would trust the austrians. There would also likely be a secret agreement for the transfer of Corsica nizza and savoy as long as some colonial territories i will let you decide what that would be.
This should secure a cp neutrality

Many of the naval and army programs cancelled stay up and running. Italy begins selling material to central powers and entente over time as the effects of italian neutrality takes effect and the central powers continue to blunt the entente and prove more successful it leads too favouring of the central powers in trade policy helped by the sheer profit being made. The entente early on would be able to more effectively police the trade but with continued production and expansion of their navy and need for material slowly limits their options will become limited.
After a long gruelling war it either ends in cp victory or stalemate in france depending on if America joins or not though I doubt they will as there is less of the need for usw so eventually peace is drawn i will leave you guys to come up with those details. However italy will be able to project some serious power. I don’t think austria will collapse in a win sernario but they will be haddicapprd for a while
 
Italy neutrality will not be a bed of rose, it was not in OTL and i doubt that it will be ITTL, all due to the international commerce going basketcase and both the entente and the CP keeping resources for the war...said that, it will certainly beat the OTL great massacre and the social situation while problematic will never reach the devastation of the OTL postwar, plus without mobilization food production can be somewhat higher making the situation a little easier.

Italy being a great power will have much more freedom than Norway and Netherlands in term of commerce with the CP, nevertheless there will be a limit at that and i expect the entente to make things clear, harrassing some ships and trying to limit whatever can be re-exported on Germany/A-H reaching the italian coast.
 
Italy neutrality will not be a bed of rose, it was not in OTL and i doubt that it will be ITTL, all due to the international commerce going basketcase and both the entente and the CP keeping resources for the war...said that, it will certainly beat the OTL great massacre and the social situation while problematic will never reach the devastation of the OTL postwar, plus without mobilization food production can be somewhat higher making the situation a little easier.

Italy being a great power will have much more freedom than Norway and Netherlands in term of commerce with the CP, nevertheless there will be a limit at that and i expect the entente to make things clear, harassing some ships and trying to limit whatever can be re-exported on Germany/A-H reaching the italian coast.
have too agree but the problem is that even if Italy is not in the best place they are also not in the best geographical place to keep to that neutrality. they still have access to trade with other neutral countries like america. plus every year they are stronger and more prepared which makes it more and more difficult to push them they i do think the British up to the task as long as they realise this is not america it will not take as much too get them too enter. i will see it becoming a problem later. also i can see an economic downturn happening when the war industry closes up when it comes to its end
 
Italy neutrality will not be a bed of rose, it was not in OTL and i doubt that it will be ITTL, all due to the international commerce going basketcase and both the entente and the CP keeping resources for the war...said that, it will certainly beat the OTL great massacre and the social situation while problematic will never reach the devastation of the OTL postwar, plus without mobilization food production can be somewhat higher making the situation a little easier.

Italy being a great power will have much more freedom than Norway and Netherlands in term of commerce with the CP, nevertheless there will be a limit at that and i expect the entente to make things clear, harrassing some ships and trying to limit whatever can be re-exported on Germany/A-H reaching the italian coast.
Italy has been filled with political issues since its founding. The nation will grow rapidly in this pod economically and militarily but could still face high amounts of corruption, crime, and inequality at home. If Italy stays out until 1916 or 1917 those the public might be less interested in war when they keep getting news of it daily and hearing how bad it is. Italy could calm down local expansion and imperialist elements after the war from multiple gains and smaller conflicts they could involve themselves in. Germany and Britain are exhausted after the ww1. Italian expansion really depends on how they work with those two powers. The only thing that might get Britain pissed at Italy is them pushing for any of their holdings but I doubt Italy that bold even in this situation. At most they could buy some holdings and lands from Britain if they are desperate enough for cash. Italy booming economy after the war might save it from a good bit of unrest at home and lead to a classical liberal dominated government in the 20s who sees Italy expand its military and economy into a legit great power(starting to rival and pass France but not Britain, US, or Germany). But the economy crashes hard when the depression hits(similar to the US). This is where fascist like Bilbo come to power.
 
Italy has been filled with political issues since its founding. The nation will grow rapidly in this pod economically and militarily but could still face high amounts of corruption, crime, and inequality at home. If Italy stays out until 1916 or 1917 those the public might be less interested in war when they keep getting news of it daily and hearing how bad it is. Italy could calm down local expansion and imperialist elements after the war from multiple gains and smaller conflicts they could involve themselves in. Germany and Britain are exhausted after the ww1. Italian expansion really depends on how they work with those two powers. The only thing that might get Britain pissed at Italy is them pushing for any of their holdings but I doubt Italy that bold even in this situation. At most they could buy some holdings and lands from Britain if they are desperate enough for cash. Italy booming economy after the war might save it from a good bit of unrest at home and lead to a classical liberal dominated government in the 20s who sees Italy expand its military and economy into a legit great power(starting to rival and pass France but not Britain, US, or Germany). But the economy crashes hard when the depression hits(similar to the US). This is where fascist like Bilbo come to power.
First thing i think is interesting is balbo as he is actually contrary too my previous understanding was incredibly republican so he might try to atleast weaken the monarchy while in power, now that is if he gets into power because while he has support he isn’t the only one for a lot of reasons for example the fascists here wont be Mussolini’s fascists which two my understanding was a blend of socialism and traditional conservativism and nationalism. Now this will likely still be similar but not the same as the popular branding of nationalist bloc and many proto fascists which was a lot more monarchist in nature so he may have trouble rising through the ranks and you still cant ingore Mussolini because by then he had already split from the socialists in 1914.
Most of italy were pro neutrality and with reports from the war and economic prosperity I don’t think it will be too much of a problem. Now i wonder how they will react too the Great Depression. Because while italy is more intergratred into the global market unlike everybody else they will have no war debt to handle meaning that italy will be far less tied to the American banks and thats assuming the entente wins which I don’t think is that likely anymore. As for italy i do think that they will be free to avenge adawa. The gains made from the war as the price for neutrality will soothe people.
 
First thing i think is interesting is balbo as he is actually contrary too my previous understanding was incredibly republican so he might try to atleast weaken the monarchy while in power, now that is if he gets into power because while he has support he isn’t the only one for a lot of reasons for example the fascists here wont be Mussolini’s fascists which two my understanding was a blend of socialism and traditional conservativism and nationalism. Now this will likely still be similar but not the same as the popular branding of nationalist bloc and many proto fascists which was a lot more monarchist in nature so he may have trouble rising through the ranks and you still cant ingore Mussolini because by then he had already split from the socialists in 1914.
Most of italy were pro neutrality and with reports from the war and economic prosperity I don’t think it will be too much of a problem. Now i wonder how they will react too the Great Depression. Because while italy is more intergratred into the global market unlike everybody else they will have no war debt to handle meaning that italy will be far less tied to the American banks and thats assuming the entente wins which I don’t think is that likely anymore. As for italy i do think that they will be free to avenge adawa. The gains made from the war as the price for neutrality will soothe people.
I honestly don’t think the monarchy has 100 percent chance of surviving even if Italy is doing well. Italy has a strong republican tradition in the north and the south doesn’t really like the Sardinian dynasty since unification. The monarch does have the military support but that could always change especially the bigger it gets. Italy doesn’t seem aristocratic as Germany or even the UK.
 
I honestly don’t think the monarchy has 100 percent chance of surviving even if Italy is doing well. Italy has a strong republican tradition in the north and the south doesn’t really like the Sardinian dynasty since unification. The monarch does have the military support but that could always change especially the bigger it gets. Italy doesn’t seem aristocratic as Germany or even the UK.
Too my understanding the monarchy was very popular the main reason why they lost popularity in the north mainly because of the war and in the south they still remained popular. Hell the south voted in large majority too maintain the monarchy. Nearly winning too. If a few things changed then italy would likely have a monarchy.my nonno told that alot of the discont with the monarchy was much more apathetic in nature. In this tl unless there is a politician like balbo who is willing to call the monarchy out which would be a very dangerous move indeed. For several reasons you’re unlikely too see any change too the institution.
 
Too my understanding the monarchy was very popular the main reason why they lost popularity in the north mainly because of the war and in the south they still remained popular. Hell the south voted in large majority too maintain the monarchy. Nearly winning too. If a few things changed then italy would likely have a monarchy.my nonno told that alot of the discont with the monarchy was much more apathetic in nature. In this tl unless there is a politician like balbo who is willing to call the monarchy out which would be a very dangerous move indeed. For several reasons you’re unlikely too see any change too the institution.
That’s true but that’s one reason it might fail. The monarchs in Italy does not have the legacy or history of the Kaiser or king of England which does help at least preserve the monarch as a symbolic figure. Apathetic feelings can easily turn into dislike if a unpopular king takes the throne in the future. The Italian monarch is likely to let other people run their country. If a charismatic leader or someone like Balbo or Mussolini takes power they can easily become more influential and popular then the king. They might start out friendly with the king but years later if not more could have a falling out. The king replies with removing him as prime minister and remove some of his top friends and allies too but by a certain point that could backfire really badly for them. If Balbo has spent years modernizing and expanding the military they could very well start supporting him more then the king. If he successful at expanding Italy and fixing the depression when it hits then he we be national hero and could very well be idolized by many. He could be a populous. Balbo or someone like him could have spent years being loyal to the king but more out of practicality more so then him actually supporting it. I don’t think Balbo will go as far as Mussolini on changing the system but I do see him strengthening the position of prime minister greatly. Once he grows strong enough in power he could stage a coup. If Balbo is the reason the military and economy is strong the populous are more likely to support him over a king that doesn’t do much. Even if he doesn’t remove him one of his successors could be a person that likes to party and take money more then actually run the country. That would make many Italians wonder why they still have a monarchy around especially if it is taking up money and making the country look bad especially when they have prime minister doing everything.
 
That’s true but that’s one reason it might fail. The monarchs in Italy does not have the legacy or history of the Kaiser or king of England which does help at least preserve the monarch as a symbolic figure. Apathetic feelings can easily turn into dislike if a unpopular king takes the throne in the future. The Italian monarch is likely to let other people run their country. If a charismatic leader or someone like Balbo or Mussolini takes power they can easily become more influential and popular then the king. They might start out friendly with the king but years later if not more could have a falling out. The king replies with removing him as prime minister and remove some of his top friends and allies too but by a certain point that could backfire really badly for them. If Balbo has spent years modernizing and expanding the military they could very well start supporting him more then the king. If he successful at expanding Italy and fixing the depression when it hits then he we be national hero and could very well be idolized by many. He could be a populous. Balbo or someone like him could have spent years being loyal to the king but more out of practicality more so then him actually supporting it. I don’t think Balbo will go as far as Mussolini on changing the system but I do see him strengthening the position of prime minister greatly. Once he grows strong enough in power he could stage a coup. If Balbo is the reason the military and economy is strong the populous are more likely to support him over a king that doesn’t do much. Even if he doesn’t remove him one of his successors could be a person that likes to party and take money more then actually run the country. That would make many Italians wonder why they still have a monarchy around especially if it is taking up money and making the country look bad especially when they have prime minister doing everything.
There are two things i would disagree with and the first one is legacy i do actually think that the savoys have the legacy remeber while italy was still new it still had been unite longer then Germany by a few decades plus like the von hohenzollern Had been a power player in italy for a while. The apathy for the royals didn’t start to develop until ww2 and didn’t sour until their actions during the war and even then that was too the current king not Umberto. However i do digress, and agree that it wouldn’t take too much too make the king atleast unpopular hell the king was by no means the sharpest tool. No the main gripe is the army and system of which balbo would rise this isn’t the italy of otl this italy would be dominated by the national bloc and liberals with socualist influence the 1920’s will be a good time for italy so I don’t see any real fascist movement like what balbo was becoming a massive party even if charismatic.
Now he may rise but it wont be as a fascist nor as dominant. I think we are over selling his popularity which grew in tandom with his rise to power in the party and state not something already there.

Now he could definitely rise during the Great Depression however, that is if it happens and if he does rise it will be by traditional means or will need the support of the king to do what Mussolini did in terms of becoming a dictator. And even then Mussolini had far more time to push through change and he rose too power in much less stable times where it is much easier to form such power. Now i may be wrong however i just cant see any major change to the satus qou
 
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