Angola Avante!

[Viriato]

There is some debate about the emigration figues for the sixties and early seventies, as Bender argued in his book. His own estimate using plane and ship passenger movements is that the white Angolan population was a "mere" 335 000 in 1974.

I was under the impression that in his book it only counted ship passengers. I tend to believe the 800,000 settlers figure in Africa around 1974 to be more accurate. If you look at Portugal's 1970 and 1981 censuses and the population increase was nearly 2 million, keeping in mind net migration and subtracting births and deaths, you still have an excess of around 830,000 people in Portugal who came from somewhere during that period.

Also, there is a Portuguese study that only takes into account passengers who arrived by ship. TAP received their first 2 707s in late 1965 and early 1966, it appears that jet traffic increased dramatically after that point. TAP passenger flights from Lisbon to Luanda went from 7 weekly to 21 weekly by early 1974, 2 daily 747s and 1 daily 707. Usually the net airline passengers, so true figures are most likely higher.

One thing I also saw was that the assisted colonos in the end were coming in on TAP flights paid by the Overseas Ministry. Those who arrived 10 years prior were still arriving by ship.

 

[Viriato]

What I meant was one or two lines parallel to the coast, say one on the coast and one inland, linking everything toghether to form a real Angolan railway network and not just export orientated lines.

What would have been the economic justification for this? Almost everywhere in Africa the railway lines were in place to export commodities to the outside world. Transporting goods from say Luanda to Benguela would have been accomplished by ship.

By the time Angola's economy began really developing in the 1960s roads were becoming more important than railways. The road network prior to 1961 in both Angola and Mozambique was considered inefficient and awful, however by 1973 there were some 8,000km of roads constructed in Angola. The Italians constructed an impressive road network in their short time in East Africa, so I think any development after the 1940s would be to building a highway network.

The internal air transport network in Angola and Mozambique was considered very well developed. DTA in Angola (later TAAG) and DETA (LAM today) in Mozambique were instrumental in connecting the interiors of the respective countries.

 

[Archangel]

Subscribed, Reagent!

 

[Reagent]

Subscribed, Reagent!

Thank you!

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I am not totally convinced of the plausibility of my railroad update. Does anyone have any suggestions?

 

[Reagent]

Estimated demography of the overseas province of Angola in 1951

European - 131,000 (+31,000) - 3.10% (+0.69%)
Mestiço - 36,000 (+4,000) - 0.85% (+0.08%)
African - 4,056,000 (+40,000) - 96.04% (-0.77%)
Total - 4,223,000 (+75,000) - 100%

Estimated demography of the overseas province of Angola in 1952

European - 173,000 (+43,000) - 4.01% (+0.91%)
Mestiço - 40,000 (+4,000) - 0.93% (+0.08%)
African - 4,097,000 (+41,000) - 95.06% (-0.98%)
Total - 4,310,000 (+88,000) - 100%

 

[Viriato]

N'Guebela is Vila Gabela or simply Gabela. It is one of the few towns that has kept its colonial name.

I think the $700 million figure is a little high for railway expansion. The extension of the Mocamedes line from Sa da Bandeira to Serpa Pinto cost 950,000 contos in 1962 ($33 million USD at the time) and that was 752 km in length.

I'm not sure where Samegimo is located, however there was a project at one time to extend the Luanda from Malanje to Henrique de Carvalho (Saurimo today) in the east and north to the diamond mining region of Portugalia (Dondo) on the borer with the Belgian Congo. From there the line could have been extended to Luluabourg. The link below has a map of the region.

Also, a line connecting Malanje with Silva Porto (Kuito) in the south and Henrique de Carvalho with Luso (Luena) would have really done a lot to connect the country.

Another line connecting Sa da Bandeira with Rocadas (Xangongo) and Pereira de Eca (Ondjiva) to the South to Southwest Africa could have been important to opening up this area to settlement. In 1972 this area was made a separate district from Huila, called Cunene. This area was where a large hydroelectric irrigation project was being developed joint with South Africa.

The total cost of all of these railways would probably have been just under $200 million in the mid-1950s. Below is a map of the first railway area I was talking about.


http://www.prof2000.pt/users/secjeste/arkidigi/Angola/Mapas/HenriCarvalho.jpg

 

[Reagent]

N'Guebela is Vila Gabela or simply Gabela. It is one of the few towns that has kept its colonial name.

I think the $700 million figure is a little high for railway expansion. The extension of the Mocamedes line from Sa da Bandeira to Serpa Pinto cost 950,000 contos in 1962 ($33 million USD at the time) and that was 752 km in length.

I'm not sure where Samegimo is located, however there was a project at one time to extend the Luanda from Malanje to Henrique de Carvalho (Saurimo today) in the east and north to the diamond mining region of Portugalia (Dondo) on the borer with the Belgian Congo. From there the line could have been extended to Luluabourg. The link below has a map of the region.

Also, a line connecting Malanje with Silva Porto (Kuito) in the south and Henrique de Carvalho with Luso (Luena) would have really done a lot to connect the country.

Another line connecting Sa da Bandeira with Rocadas (Xangongo) and Pereira de Eca (Ondjiva) to the South to Southwest Africa could have been important to opening up this area to settlement. In 1972 this area was made a separate district from Huila, called Cunene. This area was where a large hydroelectric irrigation project was being developed joint with South Africa.

The total cost of all of these railways would probably have been just under $200 million in the mid-1950s. Below is a map of the first railway area I was talking about.


http://www.prof2000.pt/users/secjeste/arkidigi/Angola/Mapas/HenriCarvalho.jpg

Thank you for the information and suggestions. I will re-post the update as soon as possible to reflect these changes (and include a map of the new Angolan rail system)

Samegimo is actually a town slightly to the west of Portugalia. I read my map incorrectly, and thought it was located where Portugalia actually is. Portugalia is the correct location for the terminus of the Loanda Railway

 

[Viriato]

Thank you for the information and suggestions. I will re-post the update as soon as possible to reflect these changes (and include a map of the new Angolan rail system)

Samegimo is actually a town slightly to the west of Portugalia. I read my map incorrectly, and thought it was located where Portugalia actually is. Portugalia is the correct location for the terminus of the Loanda Railway

No problem, I also just found a communique from 1962, is stating that the Mocamedes railway is to be extended east to the Rhodesian border once the agreement is put into place with government there. However, with the independence of Zambia it looks as though these plans were shelved. Such a railway could have been built 10 years earlier, providing the Rhodesian hinterland a shorter route to the see and helping develop Mocamedes as a major port.

Adding copper exports from Northern Rhodesia to Mocamedes be a major port for metals as iron ore from Angola was already being exported there.

 

[Reagent]

No problem, I also just found a communique from 1962, is stating that the Mocamedes railway is to be extended east to the Rhodesian border once the agreement is put into place with government there. However, with the independence of Zambia it looks as though these plans were shelved. Such a railway could have been built 10 years earlier, providing the Rhodesian hinterland a shorter route to the see and helping develop Mocamedes as a major port.

Adding copper exports from Northern Rhodesia to Mocamedes be a major port for metals as iron ore from Angola was already being exported there.

Very Interesting! I wonder if this would lead to a notable increase in European settlement in North and South Rhodesia.

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Does anyone have any information on the approximate cost of building a hydroelectric dam? (or at least some examples of Hydroelectric dams built in the 50s or 60s)

 

[Ganesha]

Very Interesting! I wonder if this would lead to a notable increase in European settlement in North and South Rhodesia.

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Does anyone have any information on the approximate cost of building a hydroelectric dam? (or at least some examples of Hydroelectric dams built in the 50s or 60s)

Well, there's the Macagua Dam from Venezuela, constructed under at least somewhat similar climactic conditions from '57-61. It initially had 6 turbines producing 384 MW of power. The Aksombo Dam in Ghana is the most famous, creating Lake Volta (the world's largest man-made lake).

Cheers,
Ganesha

 

[Viriato]

Does anyone have any information on the approximate cost of building a hydroelectric dam? (or at least some examples of Hydroelectric dams built in the 50s or 60s)

The first phase of the Cambambe dam cost 400,000 contos (around $14 million USD) in 1957. The Matala dam and irrigation project cost 212,000 contos (around $7.4 million). The Cambambe dam project was increased and by 1964 the total cost was 1,054,000 contos ($37 million USD). Much larger dams are the Kariba dam built in the Rhodesias in the late 50s, with the first phase costing $135 million in 1959.

The Cabora Bassa project in Mozambique from 1969-1974 cost 9 million contos ($360 million). However, Angola doesn't have any river comparable. Though in 1974 the Cunene river scheme was under way with a plan to build a total of 27 dams for a cost of 16 million contos ($640 million USD)

 

[Iñaki]

Truly this TL will teach a lot about Colonial Angola post1945 and in general the Portuguese Colonies.

Very interesting information, no doubt.

 

[Ganesha]

The first phase of the Cambambe dam cost 400,000 contos (around $14 million USD) in 1957. The Matala dam and irrigation project cost 212,000 contos (around $7.4 million). The Cambambe dam project was increased and by 1964 the total cost was 1,054,000 contos ($37 million USD). Much larger dams are the Kariba dam built in the Rhodesias in the late 50s, with the first phase costing $135 million in 1959.

The Cabora Bassa project in Mozambique from 1969-1974 cost 9 million contos ($360 million). However, Angola doesn't have any river comparable. Though in 1974 the Cunene river scheme was under way with a plan to build a total of 27 dams for a cost of 16 million contos ($640 million USD)

Man, what are your sources? You've got great info!

Cheers,
Ganesha

 

[Viriato]

Man, what are your sources? You've got great info!

Cheers,
Ganesha

The publications from the Portuguese Overseas Ministry (Ministério do Ultramar), also old communiques of the Overseas Ministry.

 

[Dunois]

Also, there is a Portuguese study that only takes into account passengers who arrived by ship. TAP received their first 2 707s in late 1965 and early 1966, it appears that jet traffic increased dramatically after that point. TAP passenger flights from Lisbon to Luanda went from 7 weekly to 21 weekly by early 1974, 2 daily 747s and 1 daily 707. Usually the net airline passengers, so true figures are most likely higher.

Don't forget though that back then flights were usually only 60% full on average across the industry, and usually had tag on destinations like Luanda -> Beira -> Lourenço Marques.

I actually once read on the airliners.net form that TAP considered buying more B747s to accomodate future growth, including the SP version for direct flights from Lisbon to Lourenço Marques.
The company got shafted by decolonisation to put it mildly, as key protected long haul markets were lost overnight.

What would have been the economic justification for this? Almost everywhere in Africa the railway lines were in place to export commodities to the outside world. Transporting goods from say Luanda to Benguela would have been accomplished by ship.

By the time Angola's economy began really developing in the 1960s roads were becoming more important than railways. The road network prior to 1961 in both Angola and Mozambique was considered inefficient and awful, however by 1973 there were some 8,000km of roads constructed in Angola. The Italians constructed an impressive road network in their short time in East Africa, so I think any development after the 1940s would be to building a highway network.

The internal air transport network in Angola and Mozambique was considered very well developed. DTA in Angola (later TAAG) and DETA (LAM today) in Mozambique were instrumental in connecting the interiors of the respective countries.

Using roads and airports is an alternative option. But for transporting bulk freight, railways are second to none. If a steelwork is built somewhere near Luanda, it will have to be connected by rail to the iron ore mines in the south. From an efficiency standpoint, railways are also better at moving masses of people and goods and they don't use as much energy.

Consider as well that if Luanda grow into the millions, it will at one point need some form of commuter railway network or face being clogged in automobile traffic. Tracing and building the lines when no one is around to protest, where you don't have anything to bulldoze, makes a lot more sense and will be a lot cheaper as well.

The Italians had plans for an East African railway network as well, but due to their short occupation it never went beyond the project status.

Consider that Cape gauge 1067mm will be used as well, this wll help reducing costs somewhat and we are (not yet) talking about electrified 200km/h lines here.

Estimated demography of the overseas province of Angola in 1951

European - 131,000 (+31,000) - 3.10% (+0.69%)
Mestiço - 36,000 (+4,000) - 0.85% (+0.08%)
African - 4,056,000 (+40,000) - 96.04% (-0.77%)
Total - 4,223,000 (+75,000) - 100%

Estimated demography of the overseas province of Angola in 1952

European - 173,000 (+43,000) - 4.01% (+0.91%)
Mestiço - 40,000 (+4,000) - 0.93% (+0.08%)
African - 4,097,000 (+41,000) - 95.06% (-0.98%)
Total - 4,310,000 (+88,000) - 100%

This is some very fast growth of the European element here. At these rates, the pressure on the housing stock will become severe very fast. I hope that the construction industry is following.

Are Cape Verdians included in the fast growing Mestiço category?

Are the immigrants flocking towards the cities as per OTL, or are they sticking to the rural areas. If so what makes them stick TTL unlike OTL?

 

[Reagent]

This is some very fast growth of the European element here. At these rates, the pressure on the housing stock will become severe very fast. I hope that the construction industry is following.

Are Cape Verdians included in the fast growing Mestiço category?

Are the immigrants flocking towards the cities as per OTL, or are they sticking to the rural areas. If so what makes them stick TTL unlike OTL?

Indeed, housing stock is being taking up rather quickly. Housing in Angola will be addressed rather soon in another update.

Yes, Cape Verdeans are counted as Mestiço.

Most immigrants have flocked to the cities immediately, though some were given "colonatos" to live on. These colonatos are experiencing the same problems they did IOTL. Many colonatos have already been converted to cash-crops and their inhabitants have moved to the cities. At this stage, the vast majority of these colonatos are located on the coast. The prime land on the Plateau has not yet been handed out to migrants.

 

[Reagent]

Rail expansion in Angola

As the Portuguese population of Angola grew, the Ministry for Overseas Provinces recommended an expansion of infrastructure to accommodate the new migrants and grow the economy of Angola. One of these infrastructure projects was the upgrade of the Angolan rail system. By expanding the Angolan rail system, the Ministry for Overseas Provinces hoped to increase the amount of commodities that could be exported from the Angolan interior and Belgian Congo, to the common market. It was also hoped that new rail links could help facilitate travel throughout Angola. In a bid to save costs, African "volunteers" would be utilized to build new rail extensions.

The upgrading the Rail system would occur in one of three ways: implementing a standard gauge, linking existing rail lines to neighboring nations rail networks, and building new "North-South" railways to connect interior cities with one another. While most of the existing rail system in Angola utilized Cape gauge there were a number of places (notably the Porto Amboim - Vila Gabela line and Moçâmedes Railway) that used 2 foot gauge instead of Cape gauge. The standardization process began in 1951, and by 1953, all of Angola's rail lines used Cape gauge.

The Loanda Railway was extended east from Malange to Henrique de Carvalho. From Henrique de Carvalho, the Loanda Railway would turn north, and end at the border town of Portugalia. Colonial authorities in the Belgian Congo planned to extend their rail system from Tshikapa (which was also being connected to Luluabourg) to Portugalia in order to link the Loanda Railway and the Belgian Congo's rail system. Belgian colonial authorities hoped that this link could reduce traffic on the Benguela Railway, and allow goods produced in Katanga and Kassai to be brought to the common market in less time than before. Construction on the extension began in 1952, and was finished in 1960, 2 years behind schedule. The Moçâmedes Railway, after being converted to Cape gauge, was to be expanded towards Serpa Pinto. From there, the Moçâmedes Railway would be extended to the border town of Rivungo. The Rhodesian Railways company agreed to build a new railway from Kataba to Rivungo to link the Angolan and Rhodesian rail systems. This new link allowed North Rhodesian copper to be exported to the common market faster, and made accessing North and South Rhodesia easier for British settlers. Construction of the Moçâmedes Railway extension began in 1954, and was finished in 1961.

A number of new "North-South" railways were built to ease transportation between Angola's interior cities. The Silva Porto Railway was built to connect Silva Porto and Malange. The Luso Railway was built to connect Luso and Henrique de Carvalho. The Pereira de Eca Railway was built to connect Pereira de Eca and Sá da Bandeira. The Sá da Bandeira Railway was built to connect Sá da Bandeira and Nova Lisboa. Finally, the Nova Lisboa railway was built to connect Nova Lisboa and Dondo (a town located on one of the "branches" of the Loanda Railway). Work on the first of these "North-South"railways began in 1953, and the construction was finished in 1962.

The total cost of Angola's rail system upgrade was slightly more than 250 million USD. While the economic benefits were not as great as many hoped, the new rail systems would help unite a rather disconnected country and facilitate the movement of people and goods. Sá da Bandeira, Silva Porto, Malange and Nova Lisboa (especially Nova Lisboa) would each experience a population boom as a result of the rail expansion, becoming some of the most preferred destinations for Portuguese Migrants.

African laborers working on the Nova Lisboa Railway

 

[Unknown]

Angola might avoid the civil war of OTL, though there will still be unrest, of course.

 

[Viriato]

Don't forget though that back then flights were usually only 60% full on average across the industry, and usually had tag on destinations like Luanda -> Beira -> Lourenço Marques.

I actually once read on the airliners.net form that TAP considered buying more B747s to accomodate future growth, including the SP version for direct flights from Lisbon to Lourenço Marques.
The company got shafted by decolonisation to put it mildly, as key protected long haul markets were lost overnight.

You may have read that information from me on there, since I do post on airliners.net. I have access to the ICAO the complete ICAO records showing average load factors and frequencies on routes all the way back to the 1940s. By the early 70s the TAP Lisbon-Luanda routes generally had load factors in the 80s, whilst some of their European routes (Scandinavia) had them in the 40s. It seems the longhaul network supported their shorthaul.

TAP had 4 747s by 1974 and the fifth was to join the fleet in late 1975, however it was never taken up. The 747SPs were looked at as they could fly nonstop between Lisbon and Lourenço Marques (around the bulge of Africa). There were plans for a new airport for Lisbon along with one in Catumbela, Angola which would have nonstop flights to Lisbon. TAP also expected to be flying to Nova Lisboa and Nampula. The 707s were to be phased out and replaced with more 747s as the company expected air traffic to rise.

One thing to remember, is that unlike other European flag carriers at the time, TAP was a private company owned by investors, and it had been since 1953. For that reason it needed to be profitable, indeed it was profitable every year from 1963 until 1973. Also, for that reason it was conservative when it came to expansion, it only leased a 707 from Sabena in 1963 and a DC-8 from Swissair to fly to Africa. The first TAP 707 was not delivered until late 1965.

If you look at the TAP flights to Africa, there was definite growth during the period. It appears that around 1966 or 1967 is when air traffic overtook ship traffic. This becomes even more pronounced by 1969, and in the early 70s Portugal's shipping line began converting its ocean liners to cruise ships. All of the records of the colonists arriving in Northern Mozambique in 1972-1974 show them being transported on TAP planes. Below are examples of their pre-1965 schedule.

1959
Lisbon-Kano-Leopoldville-Luanda-Lourenco Marques 2x weekly on a Super Connie.

1964
Lisbon-Luanda 1x DC-8 + 1x 707
Lisbon-Bissau-Luanda-Sao Tome-Luanda 1x Super Connie
Luanda-Beira-Lourenco Marques 1x Super Connie
Luanda-Beira 1x Super Connie
Luanda-Lourenco Marques 1x Super Connie

Getting back to my questioning of Gerald J. Bender's methodology on counting the settlers, as his argument is based on denigrating their contribution to Angola. I did my thesis on Portuguese colonialism and a lot of his research is flawed. He was not as bad as Basil Davidson (who actually made up history and then won awards in the Soviet World for it).

Bender argues that the Portuguese settlers made no contribution to Angola and that Angola was much better off without them. He argues that most of the settlers left because now a new Marxist society could be constructed from scratch without the settlers (he doesn't even take into consideration that teachers, doctors etc would be needed).

His subsequent writings were generally portraying the MPLA as a true representatives of the Angolan people, whilst the FNLA and UNITA were merely foreign puppets. Never mind that the MPLA is made up mostly of mesticos who created one of the most corrupt kleptocracies in the world for their own benefit.

James Duffy's writings on Portuguese Africa are a lot more balanced as he does not really seem biased towards one side or another. At the other end of the spectrum you have P.K. Van der Byl's (subsequently Rhodesia's Foreign and Defence Minister) books on Southern Africa which are completely pro-settler and not really academically useful either.

 

[Viriato]

Indeed, housing stock is being taking up rather quickly. Housing in Angola will be addressed rather soon in another update.

Yes, Cape Verdeans are counted as Mestiço.

Most immigrants have flocked to the cities immediately, though some were given "colonatos" to live on. These colonatos are experiencing the same problems they did IOTL. Many colonatos have already been converted to cash-crops and their inhabitants have moved to the cities. At this stage, the vast majority of these colonatos are located on the coast. The prime land on the Plateau has not yet been handed out to migrants.

One thing that is interesting is that there was a housing shortage in Luanda and Lourenco Marques by the early 1970s. I was trying to find information for this thread, and there is a report from 1972 on the housing shortage in Luanda. There was a plan to build more "bairros populares", these were government housing for rent from 200$00 ($8.00 USD) to 700$00 ($28.00) per month. These were to be mixed race.

About the colonatos, one thing that was interesting was that people from the Azores, Madeira and Cape Verde generally were far more successful as farmers than the people from mainland Portugal. Azoreans from the island of São Jorge also moved to California and were successful in dairy farming, so it's conceivable that they can be sent to large numbers to Cuanza-Sul and lead the dairy industry there. In the early 1970s they were being moved to northern Mozambique to start new colonatos.

People from Madeira also can be successful in Niassa, Mozambique with flower farming, they did start the industry there in the late 1960s, so it's conceivable if they are successful that they can compete with Kenya's flower industry. There were around 35,000 Cape Verdeans in Angola in 1974, so they could come in larger numbers and begin farming the harsher regions in Western Angola (Moxico and Cuando-Cubango) as a bulwark against the nationalists. They also have experience in cultivating coffee, so the sparsely populated Zaire district would be another place on the border to have them farm in large numbers.