Angola Avante!
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Relations between the two dictatorships were generally very good Marcello Caetano visited the country in 1969. This was followed a visit by President Américo Tomás to Brazil in 1972. He accompanied the remains of Emperor Pedro I of Brazil (which had been in Porto since his death in 1834) and transferred them to Brazil to mark the 150th year of Brazil's independence. Also that year a treaty was signed to create a Portuguese-Brazilian community giving citizens of both countries reciprocal rights in both countries. This was followed followed by the opening of free trade between the two countries. Also, in early 1974, the Portuguese Air Force placed an order for 100 light aircraft with Embraer. However, once the revolution occurred in Portugal, the Brazilian government was quick to recognize the situation had changed and quickly recognized the new independent governments and sought to foster close relations with Portuguese-speaking Africa.
There were many Portuguese still in Brazil as it had been the top foreign destination for Portuguese emigrants until 1961 (France took the top spot in 1962). The peak year for Portuguese emigration to Brazil was 1952, when 41,518 Portuguese entered Brazil, however by 1963 this number had fallen to 11,281. In 1964 the military dictatorship came to power in Brazil and only 4,929 Portuguese entered the country that year. The number of Portuguese moving to Brazil continued to decline every year until 1974. In 1973 only 890 Portuguese emigrated to Brazil compared with 63,942 who emigrated to France and 38,444 to West Germany. It seems that the reason for the falling emigration could also be attributed to Brazil's economic performance during these years which lagged especially compared to that of Western Europe.
abc123
Banned
If you continue with this ( 1949-1950 ) rate of European immigration into Angola, Angola should by 1975 have about 15- 20% of population Europeans.
And if you suceed in stopping ( not all, but say 2/3 ) the Portuguese in goeing for W. Germany and France, that should add another 10-15%.
And if you suceed in stopping ( not all, but say 2/3 ) the Portuguese in goeing for W. Germany and France, that should add another 10-15%.
Update soon?
I'm working on two updates right now, hopefully I will have them done today
Indeed, Angola is going to have a much larger white and mestiço population than OTL
Thanks for the information regarding education.
Also, I agree that Caetano is more liberal than he is given credit for (he was one of the few people to openly oppose the forced labor system in Angola during the 1940s for example). ITTL Caetano will play a pivotal role, however I won't reveal what it is just yet.
Nothing is really going on there right now.
Cape Verde will remain most unchanged, though It will have a slightly lower population because quite a few Cape Verdeans will migrate to Angola
Nothing is really going on in Portuguese Guinea.
While the added immigration would have a greater effect, migration only really began to pick up post-1950
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I was mainly curious if Portugal would keep the islands in OTL - it was a near miss in OTL as it was, give it greater autonomy and immigration/emmigration like TTL, and they may yet keep it!
Portugal in all likelihood will keep the islands. IOTL Portugal could have easily kept Cape Verde (along with São Tomé and Príncipe, East Timor and Cabinda) had the Movement of the Armed Forces not been so committed to decolonization
katchen
Banned
VERY INTERESTING!
At some key point in the future, if Portugal can avoid the trap of racism, the migration flow can reverse itself and African Angolans and Mozambiquians ( and Macao Chinese and Goa Karnatakan Indians and East Timorese) can start flooding into Portugal itself, revitalizing Metropolitan Portugal, economically.
Full employment and especially an immigrant flow into Portugal could short circuit any push toward independence and guerrilla warfare. Hopefully, that flow will be in a controlled fashion that can turn Portugal into a dynamic manufacturing zone for Europe that can maintain an Asian rate of growth instead of simply sucking in poor immigrants from the rest of Africa, China, India and Brazil and turning Portugal into a European version of Mexico.
We could easily see Lisbon and Porto growing to 8-10 million people apiece as major ports of entry into Europe. And Portuguese Africans in Europe would be far less threatening to Europeans than Algerians, Moroccans or Turks simply because they are not Muslims and are mostly Catholics.
At some key point in the future, if Portugal can avoid the trap of racism, the migration flow can reverse itself and African Angolans and Mozambiquians ( and Macao Chinese and Goa Karnatakan Indians and East Timorese) can start flooding into Portugal itself, revitalizing Metropolitan Portugal, economically.
Chinese and Karnatakans in particular are economically, quite dynamic and will also bring their dynamism to bear in Angola and Mozambique and Guinea Bissau, Cape Verde, Azores, Madeira, Sao Tome/Princepe and East Timor.
We could easily see Lisbon and Porto growing to 8-10 million people apiece as major ports of entry into Europe. And Portuguese Africans in Europe would be far less threatening to Europeans than Algerians, Moroccans or Turks simply because they are not Muslims and are mostly Catholics.
Emigrants from Portugal during this era - what was their demographic and economic profile?
In other words, are we talking about poor laborers, middle-class skilled workers, or wealthy businessmen? Or some combination of the above? Are they coming from cities or from rural areas?
With many more whites in Angola and Mozambique, inequality could get worse than OTL - or could actually improve, depending on the type of white immigrants who are arriving. Portugal's government may feel obligated to improve infrastructure considerably (which would help all Angolans) or a white over-class could form as in South Africa.
Cheers,
Ganesha
In other words, are we talking about poor laborers, middle-class skilled workers, or wealthy businessmen? Or some combination of the above? Are they coming from cities or from rural areas?
With many more whites in Angola and Mozambique, inequality could get worse than OTL - or could actually improve, depending on the type of white immigrants who are arriving. Portugal's government may feel obligated to improve infrastructure considerably (which would help all Angolans) or a white over-class could form as in South Africa.
Cheers,
Ganesha
I could see a more diverse Portugal, but I don't think it will become that diverse or contain that large of a population
Right now, most migrants are poor laborers, with some middle-class skilled workers, and a few business men who see potential in Angola. Most migrants are from the cities, but quite a few rural migrants are moving to Angola from Macronesia (Azores, Madeira, and Cape Verde). However, as time goes on, the average migrant will be wealthier than the current average migrant.
The next few updates will deal with infrastructure and race-relations
Hmm, this certainly also could affect also Spain, Portugal and Spain were two regimes with friendly relations, if Portugal Regime of Salazar is more stable in the colonies this made it more stable in the Metropolis, no Carnation Revolution? a Different transition in Spain? the butterflies could be very big, giantic in reality, although naturally this is talking about 1970's and we are some decades before the 1970's.
Certainly in any case butterflies of the size of elephants.
Certainly in any case butterflies of the size of elephants.
I am very much looking to see how this timeline will develop Regent.
One big piece of advise would be to try and read the book Angola under the Portuguese by Gerald J Bender. Which you can get on google books here or here.
In a nutshell here are some of the books main points:
-The educational profile of most migrants was very low, with a lack of migrants having higher education or even having finished school. This led to labour competition with blacks for jobs like taxi drivers, waiters and so on.
-Most of the colonos and settlment project failed, with migrants flocking to the cities instead and failing to establish themselves as farmers.
-The rural colonisation projects alienated instead of befriended the africans.
Now don't get me wrong, I think that this can work, but it will require a degree of organisation, open mindedness and non-racism which I can't necessarily see the Caetano regime displaying.
If you want to further build up Angola infrastructure, billions will be needed to build a railway net for the country crosslinking the lines from the coast into the interior.
Rural development will have to have the best interests of the Africans in mind, by coopting them into the capitalist economy and turning them into prosperous farmers. Cooperatives could be used to help in this.
Investment from abroad will have to be welcomed and embraced. Let British Petroleum, Gulf Oil, Esso and such drill for oil. Just take a 20% tax cut from them, to finance a development fund/sovereign wealth fund. The resource curse/Dutch disease, must be avoided at all costs. Refineries should consequently be build up in Portugal and later on in Angola.
Portugal capital base is too small at the moment to pay for everything itself.
Securing a friendly regime in Katanga would be helpful as well.
A government of technocrats taking the long term view could achieve this. But of this works, Portugal could firmly become a middle power instead of todays basket case.
One big piece of advise would be to try and read the book Angola under the Portuguese by Gerald J Bender. Which you can get on google books here or here.
In a nutshell here are some of the books main points:
-The educational profile of most migrants was very low, with a lack of migrants having higher education or even having finished school. This led to labour competition with blacks for jobs like taxi drivers, waiters and so on.
-Most of the colonos and settlment project failed, with migrants flocking to the cities instead and failing to establish themselves as farmers.
-The rural colonisation projects alienated instead of befriended the africans.
Now don't get me wrong, I think that this can work, but it will require a degree of organisation, open mindedness and non-racism which I can't necessarily see the Caetano regime displaying.
If you want to further build up Angola infrastructure, billions will be needed to build a railway net for the country crosslinking the lines from the coast into the interior.
Rural development will have to have the best interests of the Africans in mind, by coopting them into the capitalist economy and turning them into prosperous farmers. Cooperatives could be used to help in this.
Investment from abroad will have to be welcomed and embraced. Let British Petroleum, Gulf Oil, Esso and such drill for oil. Just take a 20% tax cut from them, to finance a development fund/sovereign wealth fund. The resource curse/Dutch disease, must be avoided at all costs. Refineries should consequently be build up in Portugal and later on in Angola.
Portugal capital base is too small at the moment to pay for everything itself.
Securing a friendly regime in Katanga would be helpful as well.
A government of technocrats taking the long term view could achieve this. But of this works, Portugal could firmly become a middle power instead of todays basket case.
Thank you for this useful information!
I am not sure it will cost billions to extend the Portuguese rail system. It might cost 1 billion at the most. Assuming an average cost of $150,000 per mile, I think 5,000 miles of rail could be built with a 1 billion dollar budget (and this cost can be spread over 10 years). Does anyone have any input on this matter?
I will address Congo (and more specifically Katanga) in a number of future updates
Between 1950 and 1974 nearly 500,000 Portuguese emigrated outside of Europe, these were generally the more permanent emigrants. Of these, 51% were male and 49% were female, opposed to the emigrants who went to Europe who were 66% male and only 34% female.
The emigrants tended to be young, with around 40% being children under 18. Another 45% were 19-34 years old. Overall the emigration was composed mainly of young men and young families of working age. While poor, they weren't the poorest of the poor, especially those going overseas. They generally had some savings that permitted them to pay for their voyage and find a home in the new country. Those going to France tended to be the poorest.
Between 1950-59, 93% of 315,000 Portuguese who emigrated went overseas, with only 7% going to other European countries. Brazil was the primary destination for 75% of all Portuguese emigrants, of these around half were from the North and Interior regions (Braganca, Viseu, Guarda and Vila Real being the main districts). Madeira accounted for another 9% of the Portuguese entering Brazil.
Venezuela was the second took in 36,000 Portuguese during the fifties. Of these, 60% were from the island of Madeira and another 20% from the district of Aveiro while 8% were from the Porto area.
The United States came in third with 16,200 Portuguese going there and Canada fourth with another 11,400. For a total of 27,600 Portuguese going to North America. Of these 2/3 in both countries were from the Azores. The Azoreans had been emigrating to the US since the late 19th century. However, the first Portuguese only arrived in Canada in 1956.
Another, 9,500 went to Argentina (mostly from the Algarve), with most arriving in the first half of the 50s. South Africa took in another 6,200 emigrants, mostly from Madeira.
Angola in Mozambique are not counted in the figures above since Portuguese moving to Angola and Mozambique weren't counted as emigrants. Angola took in a net of around 80,000 Portuguese during the 1950s and Mozambique 40,000. Those going to Angola tended to be from the North and interior of the country, with 2/3 being from those regions of Portugal. In Mozambique, around half were from Lisbon and Porto districts, and tended to be skilled or semi-skilled.
During the 1960s, the emigration patterns changed profoundly. Between 1960 and 1969, a total of 798,000 Portuguese emigrated, but the majority of them to Europe. Indeed, after 1963, European destinations overtook overseas countries.
France, was the main destination taking in 468,000 Portuguese during the 1960s. Most of these originated north of the Tejo river. France was absorbing emigrants who only a decade before would have gone to Brazil. During the first half of the decade 115,000 Portuguese went to France and 353,000 during the second half. Few people from Madeira or the Azores went to France, however.
Brazil, still took 90,000 emigrants from Portugal, with the majority (45%) of these arriving between 1960-1963. France, and Angola had replaced Brazil as the destinations from Portugal's north.
The United States took in 67,000 and Canada another 50,000 during the 1960s for a total of 117,000 Portuguese emigrants. Those going to the U.S. increased drastically after the ending of the immigration quotas there in 1965. Canada had a more steady flow. In both countries, Azoreans still accounted for around 2/3 of the emigrants. From the mainland, the emigrants came overwhelmingly from around a dozen municipalities in the North, Leiria and Aveiro districts.
West Germany only really began taking in Portuguese in the mid-1960s as guest workers. During the decade 60,000 Portuguese settled in West Germany. Unlike France, these tended to be skilled workers, especially from the Lisbon region. Most of these workers were recruited with the intention of working temporarily in the country, and indeed the majority of Portuguese going to Germany, returned home (much like the Italians and Spaniards).
Venezuela took in 37,000 Portuguese during the 1960s, mostly from Madeira and to a lesser extent Aveiro and Porto districts. The Madeirans still made up over half of the 15,700 Portuguese going to South Africa from 1960-69. However, beginning in the mid-1960s South Africa began recruiting skilled workers from Portugal, mostly from the Lisbon area.
Again, not counted in the figures above, Angola took in a net of around 200,000 Portuguese settlers during the 60s, mostly from northern portion of the mainland Portugal, but also a large number of skilled professionals from Lisbon, Porto and Braga who came to work in the new industries. Mozambique, took in around 130,000 Portuguese settlers during the same period, many of these from the greater Lisbon area and surrounding districts (Leiria and Santarem) along with the Porto and Braga districts.
During the 1970-73 period, 587,000 Portuguese emigrated abroad during the 4 fiscal years. Emigration to France remained strong, with that country taking in 380,000 of the total. The peak years of emigration to France being 1969-1971 when over 100,000 Portuguese per annum. By 1973, though the number had fallen to 64,000.
Emigration to West Germany was at it's peak during the 1970-1973 period with 120,000 Portuguese emigrating there (38,400 during the peak year of 1973). Many of these however, were often emigrants who had spent a short time in France and found that the jobs in West Germany paid more.
The United States and Canada remained the most common destination for 99% of all Azoreans emigrating. However, nearly 40% of the Portuguese emigrating to the U.S. and Canada were from the mainland during the 1970-1973 period. The U.S.A. took in 34,300 Portuguese, Canada took in another 27,700 for a total of 62,000.
For the Madeirans, Venezuela continued to the destination of choice. They made up the majority of the 17,000 Portuguese who settled in Venezuela between 1970-1973. Just under 5,000 Portuguese chose Brazil (4,917) during the same period though.
In addition to the emigrants listed above, Angola and Mozambique continued to absorb settlers, with a net of around 120,000 going to Angola and another 60,000 going to Mozambique. What is interesting is that the majority during this short period tended to be much better educated than their countrymen, also women slightly outnumbered men (being 51% of the settlers).
During the 1966-1973 period, there was a push to settle northern Mozambique with thousands of new settlers. New towns such as Nova Madeira, Nova Viseu etc were built in Niassa as places to settle people from the same areas in new towns.
There was a railway already in place, the Benguela railway linked Lobito to the Katanga and onward to Northern Rhodesia. Construction began in 1903 and by 1914 it had already reached Silva Porto (Kuito). In 1929 it reached the Belgian Congo. This was the most important railway in the country as it connects the ports of Lobito and Benguela with the plateau in the country. Nova Lisboa (Huambo), Silva Porto (Kuito), Luso (Luau) and many smaller cities and towns that became important European settlements.
The Mocamedes railway was started in 1905 and reached Sa da Bandeira (Lubango) by 1923. The line was extended East to Serpa Pinto (Menonogue) by 1961.
In Mozambique, the Lourenco Marques to Transvaal line and the Beira to Umtali lines were both in operation by the late 19th century. The Beira line was extended to Nyasaland in 1922. In Northern Moambique, the railway from Lumbo to Nacala was opened in 1913, however due to the war, it only reached Nacala in 1934. It was extended to Lake Niassa by 1969. This portion of the railway was vital and definitely could have been completed beforehand. Vila Cabral could have developed into a major commercial hub in a way that Nova Lisboa had in Angola.
There is some debate about the emigration figues for the sixties and early seventies, as Bender argued in his book. His own estimate using plane and ship passenger movements is that the white Angolan population was a "mere" 335 000 in 1974.
Now with this "mass settlement scenario" taking place here, migration will be a lot higher. There might of chance of the number of white Portuguese reaching the million by 1980. But only so much can happen and migrants will have to find places to live after all.
What I meant was one or two lines parallel to the coast, say one on the coast and one inland, linking everything toghether to form a real Angolan railway network and not just export orientated lines.