Anglo-German War in 1899-1900 (Who Wins?)

[raharris1973]

As for the postwar, I think that this scenario could be a better Point of Departure for Niall Ferguson's preferred outcomes he outlined in "The Pity of War". These being a prolonged strengthened British Empire and an early "European Union".

My problem with Ferguson's PoD, is that it relies on Britain just acting so out of character and staying out of a war determining the fate of the continent. I share Ferguson's critique of the Entente, continental commitment that stemmed from what he called "Edwardian Appeasement" of France and Russia. However, the PoD he offers, 1914 after the Schlieffen Plan begins, is too late. While the Ententes probably increased the risk of there being a war in the first place, once Germany is engaged in trying to take down France, it is too much of a risk for Britain to stay out.

However, a successful joint colonial war without any Flanders mud and no Gallipolli's will probably be good for Imperial cohesion.
While increased trade on the continent would not lead to a "European Union", and certainly not one literally ruled by the Kaiser, it would increase intra-European economic migration, German economic centrality in Europe and all continental actors' stake in a prospering German economy.

While some have said that Germany's reaction will be to abandon the naval ambition and focus on military domination of the continent, that probably will not happen. The instinctive reaction against a humiliating war with Britain will be to push back and build up the navy for a next round, a round that probably won't come. In terms of German domestic politics, anti-British emotions will be much more salient than anti-French and anti-Russian ones because of the wartime experience.

Britain after its victory will have no need to make Ententes nor naval-military agreements with Russia and France. Perhaps not even with Japan. Germany will resume its fleet construction focused on a Navy for fighting in the North Sea (and maybe submarines eventually), and its Navy especially the surface forces will likely never be employed. A Germany with this focus will likely be more cautious on the continent, and restrain any Austro-Hungarian forward policy over Bosnia or the Balkans.

The quoted portion below was my favorite part of the thread and is illustrative of the probably effects on British domestic politics and intra-imperial relations:

Probably the latter. As always people are overlooking the political realities in Britain at the time.

A British victory in this war probably butterflies the Liberal Landslide of 1906.

The Liberals were divided over support/opposition to the Boer War and the relatively protracted length of the conflict and the international bad-feeling it caused made their anti-war positions seem cogent in hind-sight.

If this was not just a war against the Boers but against Germany the popular mood will be even more entrenched on both sides. Remember that Lloyd George was almost killed in Birmingham for giving an anti-war speech by the assembled crowd.

Post-Victory the Liberals will seem to be on the wrong side of the patriotic issue and the anti-war wing will be more isolated in the Party.

Joseph Chamberlain's Imperial Tariff cause will be strengthened as the Colonies have supported Britain whilst Europe and USA have sat on their hands - he will probably win more converts and try to force this on the Government post-war. Also the stain of the Boer War will be largely pushed into the background, leaving his career less tarnished ITTL.

Arthur Balfour (the PM) will also be strengthened. In 1905 Chamberlain lashed out at him calling him "The lamest man ever to govern the march of an army". ITTL he will be a successful wartime Prime Minister and will have solidified his position as Conservative Leader.

Overall this may well change British Political History dramatically, as a failed Liberal challenge in 1906 will alter the dynamics between it and the rising Labour Party.
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GlobalHumanism, I voted Great Britain decisively simply because in areas that are contestable and contested, the British win. This is so even though Germany still walks out of the war as a growing great power.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

I've not gone through the thread to see if similar questions have been asked before, but I have a feeling they have and I probably contributed. But in spite of that,

How many allies are the British and German Empires likely to attract? And, which countries were they likely to be?

The above questions are inspired by the Netherlands allied to Germany in the Great War thread. I think if the Dutch did come into the war, they would do so on the German side, because of the Boer War. The Dutch navy was about the same size in 1899 as 1914, but their quality to the RN ships of 1899 was much better than in 1914.

 

[RodentRevolution]

I've not gone through the thread to see if similar questions have been asked before, but I have a feeling they have and I probably contributed. But in spite of that,

How many allies are the British and German Empires likely to attract? And, which countries were they likely to be?

The above questions are inspired by the Netherlands allied to Germany in the Great War thread. I think if the Dutch did come into the war, they would do so on the German side, because of the Boer War. The Dutch navy was about the same size in 1899 as 1914, but their quality to the RN ships of 1899 was much better than in 1914.

I think most people would leave them to it. Nations only tend to jump in other people's wars because they are bound by treaty or because they scent opportunity on the cheap. There is very little cheap opportunity for anyone in this scenario.

 

[Aber]

The above questions are inspired by the Netherlands allied to Germany in the Great War thread. I think if the Dutch did come into the war, they would do so on the German side, because of the Boer War.

The problem for the Dutch is European countries that went to war with the British tended to lose their colonies, goodbye Dutch East Indies.

 

[Ryan]

Yeah I can't see there being allies either. If you ally with Germany you'll lose your colonies and navy, and if you ally with Britain you'll have to fight a gruelling ground war with Germany.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

The problem for the Dutch is European countries that went to war with the British tended to lose their colonies, goodbye Dutch East Indies.

Yes they would have to count on it being a short war. However, I doubt that they would fall as easily to the British in 1899 than they did to the Japanese in 1942.

 

[pjmidd]

All depends on when Germany realizes that it has to come to the table as the economic side of the war is one sided. Britain loses trade with Germany , Germany loses trade with most of the world ( and probably getting screwed on the trade it is doing ). Add in the nitrates issue and Germany starts to look weak if it continues for too long. A Germany with little cash , not enough food and dwindling munition supplies is like a wounded fish surrounded by sharks. Could trigger the rest of Europe to pile in on Britain's side ( officially, really just to grab what they can from either side )