Anglo-German Naval War

If WWI was delayed, is there any way the Germans could have caught the British in the Naval race?

In a sense - if the fast battleship merged with the battlecruiser, then the Germans could find that in THESE ship types they are at effective parity. The problem isn't all the old dreadnoughts lying around in the RN, but the fact that Britain will just kick into action a NEW building plan to outbuild Germany in fast battleships

The POSSIBLE way out is Ireland - if that all goes to Hell in 1914, then you could see a series of governmental crises, probably ending in a Labour administration, during which the naval budget would come under intense pressure and latterly be slashed

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
But that means that the British would literaly have to stop building anything above a destroyer for about two years before the Germans could get any ships in the water.

But to the topic at hand: How fast would the Germans lose a naval war in 1911? The French would probably be involved which would start a land war. But if the British win at sea before there is fighting on land or if there is a stalemate on land. Then the British would demand the Germans stop trying to make a navy and the French would throw in demands as well. But how would the French hold up their claim if it's a stalemate?
 
But that means that the British would literaly have to stop building anything above a destroyer for about two years before the Germans could get any ships in the water.

But to the topic at hand: How fast would the Germans lose a naval war in 1911? The French would probably be involved which would start a land war. But if the British win at sea before there is fighting on land or if there is a stalemate on land. Then the British would demand the Germans stop trying to make a navy and the French would throw in demands as well. But how would the French hold up their claim if it's a stalemate?

Well, nobody looked up my comments on close blockade and when it was abandoned, so I guess I'll go and research that myself, since without knowing for sure what the RN war plans were, you can't really predict what the outcome of the war would be

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Interesting stuff about Agadir halfway down this webpage/board

http://forumeerstewereldoorlog.nl/viewtopic.php?p=110971&sid=dacbf4f5b2039ba6c4645e703593befe

Early in 1905, she decided on a strategy which would remain essentially unchanged for the next six years: when Britain and Germany were to clash, her primary objective would be the destruction of the German navy, the Hochseeflotte. After this objective had been obtained, Germany and France would be left to their own devices. Their encounter could end in another Jena or another Sedan for all the admiralty cared (still convinced that isolationism was official British policy), but neither would be in a position to threaten Britain. Thoughts were entertained on amphibious landings on the German coast to force her to give in to British demands or a possible economic blockade of her coastline, but these were not part of official naval policy: the First Sea Lord, “Jacky” Fisher, kept his precise plans as opaque as possible, often boasting that they would only become evident when war broke out.

Since 1905 plus six years = 1911, one can assume these plans were ONLY changed in REACTION to Agadir

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
OK, this is probably the key piece from that page/board

While the debate on the Naval Prize Bill raged on, relations between Britain and Germany reached a new low. Again, the Germans tried to gain influence in Morocco, and, this time, had sent the gunboat Panther to enforce their demands, followed by another round of blunt and clumsy diplomacy on their part. In case Germany and France might come to a head and provoke Britain’s involvement, Prime Minister Herbert H. Asquith convened a secret meeting of the CID on 23 August 1911, at which senior Army and Navy officers would outline their strategy. Arthur K. Wilson, who had succeeded Fisher as First Sea Lord the previous year, spoke first. In a decidedly clumsy manner, he outlined the Navy’s plans for a close blockade of the German coastline, the subsequent bombardment of her coastal batteries and an eventual invasion of the German mainland—a steadily recurring theme in Admiralty plans from 1905 onwards. He received a cold reception to his presentation. The assembled Cabinet members and Army representatives took turns denouncing the idiocy of the plans, stating the vulnerability of ships in a close blockade to new weapons such as torpedoes, mines and submarines, and the sheer folly of sending a small expeditionary force on her way to Berlin. After Wilson left the stand, the Army stated her case. Using charts, maps and graphs, the eloquent Army representative explained in detail how a British Expeditionary Force would operate in conjunction with the French to counter a German invasion and tip the scales decidedly against her. His time-table for the Army’s deployment was so thorough, that he even scheduled in regular tea breaks for the B.E.F. on her way to the front.
After the August 23 meeting, several Cabinet members, including Lord Haldane, argued for a reshuffling of the Navy’s command structure, replacing stalwart isolationists with capable men working in conjunction with the Army. Asquith acquiesced, and ordered McKenna and Winston Churchill, Home Secretary and vocal opponent of Wilson’s plans, to trade places

Its interesting to consider whether everyone would have rounded on his plans if war had already broken out - after all, there wouldn't be TIME to go and get a new set of plans for war.

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Britain had 48 pre-dreadnoughts and the Germans had 24. While slow, the pre-dreadnoughts still had heavy weapons and armour.
 
Its interesting to consider whether everyone would have rounded on his plans if war had already broken out - after all, there wouldn't be TIME to go and get a new set of plans for war.

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

There is another work to consult since I don't think Wilson and the Navy really had any concrete plans. Or I also think that Wilson had his ideas for dealing with Germany that were not the same as the Naval planners. Wilson had really be brought back to the Admiralty to restore some order following Fisher.
 
There is another work to consult since I don't think Wilson and the Navy really had any concrete plans. Or I also think that Wilson had his ideas for dealing with Germany that were not the same as the Naval planners. Wilson had really be brought back to the Admiralty to restore some order following Fisher.

Which other work, and would someone like to consult it ?

Regarding this apparent chaos - if war suddenly DOES break out, then the Admiralty will have to go with what plans it has. It can't do NOTHING, so there is potential for them to go ahead with their half-baked plans and try to impose a close blockade

It was really the Agadir Crisis which brought about a wholesale revision of these plans. So, if crisis is replaced with immediate war, then we have the potential for the Admiralty to learn some very nasty lessons

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Which other work, and would someone like to consult it ?

Regarding this apparent chaos - if war suddenly DOES break out, then the Admiralty will have to go with what plans it has. It can't do NOTHING, so there is potential for them to go ahead with their half-baked plans and try to impose a close blockade

It was really the Agadir Crisis which brought about a wholesale revision of these plans. So, if crisis is replaced with immediate war, then we have the potential for the Admiralty to learn some very nasty lessons

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

So the Germans are defeated at sea, but what happens on land. Does trench warfare take over? And what about U-Boats? And would the British pursue any kind of blockade?
 
Which other work, and would someone like to consult it ?

Regarding this apparent chaos - if war suddenly DOES break out, then the Admiralty will have to go with what plans it has. It can't do NOTHING, so there is potential for them to go ahead with their half-baked plans and try to impose a close blockade

It was really the Agadir Crisis which brought about a wholesale revision of these plans. So, if crisis is replaced with immediate war, then we have the potential for the Admiralty to learn some very nasty lessons

Best Regards
Grey Wolf


Finally found it.

Sir John Fisher's Naval Revolution by Nicholas Lambert. (1999).
 
So the Germans are defeated at sea, but what happens on land. Does trench warfare take over? And what about U-Boats? And would the British pursue any kind of blockade?

The Roayl navy suffers atrocious losses due to close blockade, which leaves it vulnerable to mines and other nasty devices. However, the high seas fleet is wiped off the North Sea in a short amount of time. not sure if u-boats are developed enough to wage a full commerce war, but given the british asw measures effectivness (or lack thereof), it will be an interesting event.

The war on land depends on how the alliance system drags in other nations. One possibility, however, is that Jackie Fisher tries his landings on the baltic or north sea coast of germany.
 
The Roayl navy suffers atrocious losses due to close blockade, which leaves it vulnerable to mines and other nasty devices. However, the high seas fleet is wiped off the North Sea in a short amount of time. not sure if u-boats are developed enough to wage a full commerce war, but given the british asw measures effectivness (or lack thereof), it will be an interesting event.

The war on land depends on how the alliance system drags in other nations. One possibility, however, is that Jackie Fisher tries his landings on the baltic or north sea coast of germany.

Okay, do you think that the British and Germans could broker a peace after the High Sea's fleet is destroyed? I doubt the land war would get very far beyond Germany and France. Austria might, which would drag in Russia. But I doubt that would happen. Would the Germans beat the French easily though? Would it be another Franco-Prussian war?

And about the "ninety miles of rock" comment that Fisher made. I doubt that that would ever work, let alone get the green light from the admiralty.
 
A naval landing in WW1 conditions? In the Northwest German coastline? Baaaad idea. Poor Brits would get slaughtered in the marshes and shifting beaches there.
Ads for the Baltic Coast... not the best idea either. Too heavily mined. Besides, naval landings can easily be contained and crushed in this time period.
Note that Germany didn't think it was ready for a naval war until the Kiel Canal was complete.
 
I agree, the plan was in general madness (although that mix of insight, daring, and insanity that can win wars with some luck). Britain probably does not want to commit to that sort of a land war, and I doubt that it can win it alone. Still, Fisher may propose it as a way to break the stalemate. And if not, especially if the HSF is recalitrant (very likely; I doubt they want to hazard much on a single engagement with the superior forces of the Grand Fleet), we might see calls in London for the "Copenhagening" of the German fleet. Which might lead to the landing of troops around Hamburg or Bremerhaven or wherever the HSF is basing out of. And if I remember the dates right, Churchill will be in government (home office, i think). Imagine if he gets on board...
 
But as Grey Wolf said the British changed their plans because of Agadir. If a war breaks out because of Agadir then they don't have enough time to make new plans.

IMO the Germans wouldn't stay in port. They were naive at this time and thought they might win. So anyway in about month maybe after one large engagement the Germans and British sign a peace treaty limiting the size of the German navy. Then the Germans and the French sign a peace treaty because it is a stalemate.

What happens postwar?
 
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Plans and No Plans

It appears, from Lambert's work, that the Admiralty had decided upon a blockade, in the even of war with Germany, around 1907. The impossibility of maintaining a close blockade would have been pretty evident then. The British recognized that they lacked sufficient lighter craft to serve as an observation force.

Fisher's Baltic Plan was never more than his usual bombastic talking. It was later used as a 'smokescreen' in order to secure the construction of the large light cruisers Courageous, Glorious and Furious. These three warships were ordered to fill the perceived necessity of having escort ships that could keep pace with the battle fleet during high seas.
 
But I thought that the general agreement was that the British in this case would not even pursue a blockade. So this is roughly how it works out.

-Incident in the Channel
-War declared
-Germans and French start mobilizing
-British make strike at some German port, both sides take heavy causeualties but British emerge victorious
-British convince Germans to limit the size of their navy and make peace


But what happens with the French. If the British drop out will the French continue?

And what about postwar? I can see a US-Japanese arms race devolping, but what else can happen. And what about that Balkan crap? Will the Germans be weary of supporting Austria?
 
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