Glen said:Okay, here I'd like to hear some opinions on timing in 1905-6.
The Alliance will attack into Russia first to knock them out of the war quickly, while Germany goes on the defensive on the border with France.
France will decide to do their own version of von Schlieffen, invading through Belgium and the Netherlands to strike at Germany. They actually had a plan by this name, but I can't recall the Plan number at the moment. This attack will stall.
When do we see these attacks, and how long is Russia likely to hold out? The war in the East is likely to remain more mobile than OTL WWI due to terrain, commitment of troops by the Alliance, Russia having to fight on two fronts, and the relative quality of the forces involved. The question is when does the balloon go up, and how long will it take before the Russians are forced to the negotiation table?
I'm almost tempted to think the Germans might try for a winter offensive. The frozen terrain would allow for quicker movement if the forces involved were properly dressed for Winter (which I'd assume they would be if they were actually planning to launch a Winter campaign, rather than having their campaign stall and go into Winter). Then again, the more traditional approach would be to wait for the Spring, I suppose....
Glen
I think it partly depends on the war aims. Historically the expectation was for a short war, decided by a rapid attack, as in the wars in the 1860's that unified Germany. The continental powers especially feared that if they didn't mobilise quickly and throw everything into the battle they would be quickly defeated. Hence the mass mobilisation and rapid offensives that started the war.
For those reasons I would actually expect large scale war as soon as the conflict widens. I would also think that the Germans wouldn't plan on going too deeply into Russia, remembering Napoleon's example. Don't forget this is before motorisation started to any degree. Armies are not only much bigger than in napoleon's time but also using far heavier equipment. Hence, getting away from the scant railway lines in Russia, your dependent on horses for transportation. A major attempt to reach Moscow would be a very big problem, especially since Russia is far more populous than any other state. Also, with France to their rear the Germans wouldn't want to get too much of their forces too far away from the western front.
As such I would expect Germany to seek to occupy most of Poland, the southern Baltic states and say western Ukraine. In the process destroying most of the Russian regular forces as they sought to mobilise. While fighting from behind defencive positions in the west, possibly aiding Italy if they enter the war and having something in reserve to aid Belgium if/when France attacks it. The BEF would probably head this way as well, although given the entente includes Russia and the Ottomans, it could end up in Egypt, Persia or India.
The problem with this tactic is that it was expected the offensive would have the advantage. Both because of the history of quick wars and the fact that Germany would be unwilling to leave their western territories exposed to French attack. As such, while good strategy in the advantage of hindsight, it might not be politically acceptable.
Elsewhere Britain might support Japan in the Pacific with gunfire support and supplies. Mobilising Indian forces for operations against the Russians. Also using the navy to isolate the various enemy powers and their key colonies.
A lot depends on the war aims and how well they stay realistic once war actually breaks out. One problem with coalition conflicts is that a power that suffers major defeats can be buoyed up by successes or at least support by its allies. As such those types of conflicts are often long and attritional ones, decided only when one or both sides are exhausted. Hopefully the entente would quickly realise it was outclassed and made a quick peace for minimal losses. This however also presumes that the allies don’t get too greedy.
Steve