Anglo-German Alliance

Glen said:
Okay, here I'd like to hear some opinions on timing in 1905-6.

The Alliance will attack into Russia first to knock them out of the war quickly, while Germany goes on the defensive on the border with France.

France will decide to do their own version of von Schlieffen, invading through Belgium and the Netherlands to strike at Germany. They actually had a plan by this name, but I can't recall the Plan number at the moment. This attack will stall.

When do we see these attacks, and how long is Russia likely to hold out? The war in the East is likely to remain more mobile than OTL WWI due to terrain, commitment of troops by the Alliance, Russia having to fight on two fronts, and the relative quality of the forces involved. The question is when does the balloon go up, and how long will it take before the Russians are forced to the negotiation table?

I'm almost tempted to think the Germans might try for a winter offensive. The frozen terrain would allow for quicker movement if the forces involved were properly dressed for Winter (which I'd assume they would be if they were actually planning to launch a Winter campaign, rather than having their campaign stall and go into Winter). Then again, the more traditional approach would be to wait for the Spring, I suppose....

Glen

I think it partly depends on the war aims. Historically the expectation was for a short war, decided by a rapid attack, as in the wars in the 1860's that unified Germany. The continental powers especially feared that if they didn't mobilise quickly and throw everything into the battle they would be quickly defeated. Hence the mass mobilisation and rapid offensives that started the war.

For those reasons I would actually expect large scale war as soon as the conflict widens. I would also think that the Germans wouldn't plan on going too deeply into Russia, remembering Napoleon's example. Don't forget this is before motorisation started to any degree. Armies are not only much bigger than in napoleon's time but also using far heavier equipment. Hence, getting away from the scant railway lines in Russia, your dependent on horses for transportation. A major attempt to reach Moscow would be a very big problem, especially since Russia is far more populous than any other state. Also, with France to their rear the Germans wouldn't want to get too much of their forces too far away from the western front.

As such I would expect Germany to seek to occupy most of Poland, the southern Baltic states and say western Ukraine. In the process destroying most of the Russian regular forces as they sought to mobilise. While fighting from behind defencive positions in the west, possibly aiding Italy if they enter the war and having something in reserve to aid Belgium if/when France attacks it. The BEF would probably head this way as well, although given the entente includes Russia and the Ottomans, it could end up in Egypt, Persia or India.

The problem with this tactic is that it was expected the offensive would have the advantage. Both because of the history of quick wars and the fact that Germany would be unwilling to leave their western territories exposed to French attack. As such, while good strategy in the advantage of hindsight, it might not be politically acceptable.

Elsewhere Britain might support Japan in the Pacific with gunfire support and supplies. Mobilising Indian forces for operations against the Russians. Also using the navy to isolate the various enemy powers and their key colonies.

A lot depends on the war aims and how well they stay realistic once war actually breaks out. One problem with coalition conflicts is that a power that suffers major defeats can be buoyed up by successes or at least support by its allies. As such those types of conflicts are often long and attritional ones, decided only when one or both sides are exhausted. Hopefully the entente would quickly realise it was outclassed and made a quick peace for minimal losses. This however also presumes that the allies don’t get too greedy.

Steve
 
stevep said:
If the Ottomans are on the entente side, which I find rather strange, then you could find the bulk of the minor powers favouring the alliance. Don't forget this is before the 1st Balkan war, in which they allied to overrun most of the Ottoman provinces in Europe. This is also before the Austrian annexation of Bosnia, so probably better relations between them and Serbia. Rumania would definitely be pro-alliance as the king was a Hollenzarn (sp). Greece would almost certainly also be pro-allied because of its hostility to Turkey and its vulnerability to sea power. Under those circumstances, with the possible exception of Bulgaria they would be almost certainly be in the allied camp. [It has historical links with Russia which were only broken after the 1st Balkan war, but also wants land from Turkey.]
I'd say Bulgaria will fight against the alliance (they have claims on Macedonia, and Turkey might agree to give them some after the war), but I have to agree that every other country in the area would likely dogpile the Ottomans. So we could actually see borders somewhat similar to OTL post Balkan Wars, but with a Bulgaria similar to how it was after WWI and a Greece possibly including Constantinople and the west coast of Turkey. Maybe Italy could be offered Albania?
 
luakel said:
I'd say Bulgaria will fight against the alliance (they have claims on Macedonia, and Turkey might agree to give them some after the war), but I have to agree that every other country in the area would likely dogpile the Ottomans. So we could actually see borders somewhat similar to OTL post Balkan Wars, but with a Bulgaria similar to how it was after WWI and a Greece possibly including Constantinople and the west coast of Turkey. Maybe Italy could be offered Albania?
Well Austria-Hungary had claims on Albania, but may be persuaded to give them up, but they'd want something elsewhere... Probably from Russia. Also, I think the Novi Pazar district was still occupied by A-H in this period, but I'm not sure.

http://euratlas.com/big/big1900.htm <- Hm, here Bulgaria's south is somewhat Ottoman... Might Bulgaria lose it's control over these areas completely after the war? (Though who would get them?)
 
I could see them getting the areas- something to compensate for losing Southern Dobruja and having Macedonia divided by Serbia and Greece...
 
?Are you sure that the Ottomans had treaties with France/Russia in 1905?

IIRC the Ottomans were almost ready to join the British, ar at least stay neutral in WW1, till GB messed up the talks.

Remember the young turks are much weaker. as all the main leaders whe know are ten years younger, and only starting out.
 
BTW Glen, here's a possible map (base map is Thande's 1901) that could be used to show the post-war political situation. All I've changed from the original is my suggestion for the situation in the Balkans post-war...

A-1901.gif
 

Glen

Moderator
DuQuense said:
?Are you sure that the Ottomans had treaties with France/Russia in 1905?

IIRC the Ottomans were almost ready to join the British, ar at least stay neutral in WW1, till GB messed up the talks.

Remember the young turks are much weaker. as all the main leaders whe know are ten years younger, and only starting out.

One can never be certain, but I believe it plausible, and it is already in the timeline, so I'm going to leave it that way.

If I second guess everything, then there won't BE a timeline...:rolleyes:
 
Here is a good 1914 map showing the changes of the Balkan Wars. [ http://fsmitha.com/h2/map01eu.htm ]

If the Ottomans are allied on the Russian/losing side as is Bulguria,

Greece gets the Agean coast to Adrianople plus Crete

Contaninople made a Free city

Serbia get Kosovo and Scultan giving it a coast plus a little of western Bulguria.

Romainia gets Bessarabia and eastern Bulguria.

If Italy joins the Allies, it get Nice/Savoy. Tunisia.

Japan gets French Polinesia, and feels cheated out ot Indochina which British/India occupies.

Germany takes Russian Poland and the Baltics.

Sweden is a wild Card, this is before the Split with Norway. ?Does He go adventuring to take back Finland?, in hope that Norway will stay due to the War.
 

Glen

Moderator
DuQuense said:
Here is a good 1914 map showing the changes of the Balkan Wars. [ http://fsmitha.com/h2/map01eu.htm ]

Right. Too late a map to really do us any good. Need a map prior to the Balkan wars.

If the Ottomans are allied on the Russian/losing side as is Bulguria,

That is what's going to happen, at minimum.

Greece gets the Agean coast to Adrianople plus Crete

Reasonable.

Contaninople made a Free city

Quite possibly. We'll see.

Serbia get Kosovo and Scultan giving it a coast plus a little of western Bulguria.

Sounds plausible.

Romainia gets Bessarabia and eastern Bulguria.

Bessarabia certainly, and some of eastern Bulgaria, though I doubt it will be much.

If Italy joins the Allies, it get Nice/Savoy. Tunisia.

Define Savoy.

Japan gets French Polinesia, and feels cheated out ot Indochina which British/India occupies.

Probable.

Germany takes Russian Poland and the Baltics.

Not too certain about this. The Baltics, yes. But I can see Poland being turned into a buffer state.

Sweden is a wild Card, this is before the Split with Norway. ?Does He go adventuring to take back Finland?, in hope that Norway will stay due to the War.

That's an interesting thought. Anyone think it reasonable that Sweden and Norway would stay together for a bit longer? And would they go for Finland??
 
Glen said:
I doubt that AH would let Italy get Albania.
It would keep their eyes off Dalmatia for awhile... maybe they get it as a puppet?
Glen said:
I doubt Britain would let Italy get Djibouti, but I could be persuaded otherwise on that one...
OK, I agree here.
 

Glen

Moderator
luakel said:
It would keep their eyes off Dalmatia for awhile... maybe they get it as a puppet?

No, I think it would just encourage them to shoot for complete dominance of the Adriatic.

There is just no way that AH will allow Italy to have both sides of the bottleneck out of the Adriatic.

OK, I agree here.

Noted.
 
Glen said:
It was in this climate that the Battle of Dogger Bank became almost inevitable, as in October of 1904 a Russian flotilla heading for the Far East mistakenly thought British vessels were part of a Japanese ambush. This quickly escalated into a full scale naval engagement which the Russians lost. The Russians refused to take responsibility for the action, claiming it was Britain's attempt to sereptitiously aid their ally Japan under the guise of an 'accident'. Russia and Britain entered into a state of war.

I think it should be made clear here that the Russians opened fire on a flotilla of British fishing trawlers - since anyone with some knowledge of the 'engagement' would get the impression that the Russians were defeated by the fishing fleet.
 

Glen

Moderator
David S Poepoe said:
I think it should be made clear here that the Russians opened fire on a flotilla of British fishing trawlers - since anyone with some knowledge of the 'engagement' would get the impression that the Russians were defeated by the fishing fleet.

Well, OTL Dogger Bank incident was started by the Russians firing on British fishing boats, then getting chased down by the Royal Navy.

Here I am purposely leaving the details of the engagement vague, so that those who prefer to think of it as the same event may, but there is also room to believe that it is a more divergent event, just somewhat coincidental.

Dogger Bank is a strategic point, so confrontation there is fairly reasonable, and the Russians suffering a very similar fate out in Manchuria would be likely to be sending forces that way that time of year.
 

Glen

Moderator
David bar Elias said:
Is someone going to write a TL for this scenario?

I believe I AM writing a timeline for this scenario, year by year.

I plan to keep this going up to the present, more or less.

But I am being leisurely about it, and will keep the format as you've already seen....
 
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