Anglo/American war of 1838?
- Thread starter rick007
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Canadian people would rise up, but in a minority. Canadians majority did not had independence desires until 1860, so in my point of view, the maximum that a war between the United States and England would impact on Canada would be the organization of an independence movement earlier, perhaps in the middle of the 1850s. Also, as the British got the best military in that era, it would be really hard for the rebels to win the battle, even with bigger support. The treason punishment after the end of the war would probably scary some of the people to get involved in the fight too
The war would almost certainly be a British victory. Canada was deeply loyal to Britain, even in 1867 no one seriously considered severing ties. The British managed to end the War of 1812 in a draw with one arm tied behind their back, that won't be the case this time.
Logistics being what they were in the 1830s, I'm not sure the Americans even could supply a large enough army to conquer Canada and survive it's winter. Their officers and equipment were far worse than the British Regulars, and Canadian militiamen would be dedicated to saving their home from invasion. The US Navy at the time was nothing compared to the Royal Navy. The only strategic advantage the US has is a higher population.
But more importantly than winning the war strategically, public opinion would be incredibly anti-war. And that would force the to make peace. Outside of hardliner manifest destiny supporters, no one wanted to conquer Canada forcibly to begin with. And Britain would be able to raid or occupy major port cities, and blockade trade. With no imports business owners would turn against the war, and with no Tariffs the US would be forced to raise taxes to pay for the war, causing it to be even more unpopular. No one benefits from such a war, and everyone looses.
I would guess after a year or two of blockade, the US accepts minor border cessions in exchange for peace.
Logistics being what they were in the 1830s, I'm not sure the Americans even could supply a large enough army to conquer Canada and survive it's winter. Their officers and equipment were far worse than the British Regulars, and Canadian militiamen would be dedicated to saving their home from invasion. The US Navy at the time was nothing compared to the Royal Navy. The only strategic advantage the US has is a higher population.
But more importantly than winning the war strategically, public opinion would be incredibly anti-war. And that would force the to make peace. Outside of hardliner manifest destiny supporters, no one wanted to conquer Canada forcibly to begin with. And Britain would be able to raid or occupy major port cities, and blockade trade. With no imports business owners would turn against the war, and with no Tariffs the US would be forced to raise taxes to pay for the war, causing it to be even more unpopular. No one benefits from such a war, and everyone looses.
I would guess after a year or two of blockade, the US accepts minor border cessions in exchange for peace.
I doubt it, TBH. The early 19th century is peak Rule Britannia time, so neither country would be able to do much to harm Britain. Meanwhile the US is on the other side of the world and has no real force projection capabilities as of yet, so it's not like European allies could expect any quid pro quo in their own wars.
American support of the Canadian rebels. A border dispute. Take your pick.
So let us assume then that in response to the Canadian Rebellions of 1837 and the Caroline Affair of the same year, the United States and Great Britain cannot come to any agreement, and so after months of harsh negotiations and recriminations, the new president, Martin van Buren, on the advice of outgoing president Andrew Jackson and overwhelming public pressure, declare war on Britain in say, May of 1838.
The United States army in 1838 was barely 9,000 strong, but let us say that for the sake of argument they've been recruiting and calling for men since February 1837. Let's say it was as strong as it was in 1837 around 12,000 men. They've been recalling as many men as possible, putting men into the ranks and getting regiments of Volunteers ready, so let us say that they've got roughly 20,000 men hauled up for war by June of 1838 with say 10,000 more in the pipeline waiting to get to the field. They've also got auxiliaries and suspected members of a Fifth Column in the form of members of the patriote movement that had rebelled in 1837 and the Hunters Lodges who OTL attacked Canada in 1838. Because of this, the Americans expect that they will be marching in to Canada as liberators. My guestimate is that they could rely upon maybe 3,000 rebels in Lower Canada (modern Quebec) to take up arms alongside them.
Now against this, what might they be facing? Well the British had also responded to the rebellions in Canada and by 1838 they had put 10,000 regular troops into the country and had armed some 30,000 militia and auxiliaries historically. My guess is you have 10,000 extra regulars moving to Canada post-haste as things deteriorate. Their chief work will be: Defending Montreal, defending Kingston/the St. Lawrence, and protecting Upper Canada (modern Ontario) from invasion. Most of the regulars will be in Lower Canada, so much of the force in Upper Canada will be militia with a smattering of regulars to thicken the ranks.
So what happens next?
The US Army, remembering it's failures from 1812, will probably be much more coordinated in its offensives off the bat and send most of their forces to attack Montreal, picking up rebellious Canadians on the way. That's where the meat of this war will be fought. There's going to be fighting in modern Ontario, on Lake Ontario and across the river, but the war will really be decided south of Montreal.
Now what do I think the results will be? Well, quite honestly it's going to be a British victory. Sending 20,000 troops to Canada, supported by probably 40,000 militiamen while the US is using the same avenue of invasion they have now done twice before, the American army is probably heading for a bruising. The British navy is bigger, they're going to be more prepared for war in Canada and on the seas, and who is going to try and jump to the rescue of the US? Nobody really.
In the end what probably ends up happening is the British take a huge chunk of Maine, settling the boundary dispute in their favor, they snag the arrowhead region and portions of the Northwest, as well as carving a chunk out of northern New York from, probably, Plattsburgh to Sackett's Harbor as they'd thought of doing in the last war, as well as trying to hammer down some other issues.
It's a very humiliating defeat for the US. Canada has a new sense of national identity, the patriote and republican movements of the 1830s are fairly thoroughly discredited in Canada, and the Loyalists become the leaders of power.
Long term, it will probably be blamed on Jackson and Van Buren, perhaps discrediting the Democratic Party. Britain and the US will have stormy relations, but I think that by the 1850s they'll be able to hammer out a more civil relationship. Canada is a bit bigger and the US a bit smaller.
The United States army in 1838 was barely 9,000 strong, but let us say that for the sake of argument they've been recruiting and calling for men since February 1837. Let's say it was as strong as it was in 1837 around 12,000 men. They've been recalling as many men as possible, putting men into the ranks and getting regiments of Volunteers ready, so let us say that they've got roughly 20,000 men hauled up for war by June of 1838 with say 10,000 more in the pipeline waiting to get to the field. They've also got auxiliaries and suspected members of a Fifth Column in the form of members of the patriote movement that had rebelled in 1837 and the Hunters Lodges who OTL attacked Canada in 1838. Because of this, the Americans expect that they will be marching in to Canada as liberators. My guestimate is that they could rely upon maybe 3,000 rebels in Lower Canada (modern Quebec) to take up arms alongside them.
Now against this, what might they be facing? Well the British had also responded to the rebellions in Canada and by 1838 they had put 10,000 regular troops into the country and had armed some 30,000 militia and auxiliaries historically. My guess is you have 10,000 extra regulars moving to Canada post-haste as things deteriorate. Their chief work will be: Defending Montreal, defending Kingston/the St. Lawrence, and protecting Upper Canada (modern Ontario) from invasion. Most of the regulars will be in Lower Canada, so much of the force in Upper Canada will be militia with a smattering of regulars to thicken the ranks.
So what happens next?
The US Army, remembering it's failures from 1812, will probably be much more coordinated in its offensives off the bat and send most of their forces to attack Montreal, picking up rebellious Canadians on the way. That's where the meat of this war will be fought. There's going to be fighting in modern Ontario, on Lake Ontario and across the river, but the war will really be decided south of Montreal.
Now what do I think the results will be? Well, quite honestly it's going to be a British victory. Sending 20,000 troops to Canada, supported by probably 40,000 militiamen while the US is using the same avenue of invasion they have now done twice before, the American army is probably heading for a bruising. The British navy is bigger, they're going to be more prepared for war in Canada and on the seas, and who is going to try and jump to the rescue of the US? Nobody really.
In the end what probably ends up happening is the British take a huge chunk of Maine, settling the boundary dispute in their favor, they snag the arrowhead region and portions of the Northwest, as well as carving a chunk out of northern New York from, probably, Plattsburgh to Sackett's Harbor as they'd thought of doing in the last war, as well as trying to hammer down some other issues.
It's a very humiliating defeat for the US. Canada has a new sense of national identity, the patriote and republican movements of the 1830s are fairly thoroughly discredited in Canada, and the Loyalists become the leaders of power.
Long term, it will probably be blamed on Jackson and Van Buren, perhaps discrediting the Democratic Party. Britain and the US will have stormy relations, but I think that by the 1850s they'll be able to hammer out a more civil relationship. Canada is a bit bigger and the US a bit smaller.
I’m an American and I love a good Ameriwank every now and then. That said, let’s be 100% honest. After the revolution the idea of America beating the British in a war before around WWI is laughable. You could possibly make an argument for immediately after the civil war if it stays mobilized but I don’t see why that would happen.
America loses some of its northern border, and is extremely embarrassed
America loses some of its northern border, and is extremely embarrassed
The British situation is also much, much improved by the Welland and Rideau canals. They can move troops and ships right from Montreal to the Detroit frontier in a ten or twelve days.
On land in Canada? Probably if they move before the British can mass troops. Mainly because I think they’ll view it as more profitable to make a peace and get some land back than to Draw it out. But the Brits could likely sweep the US Navy and bombard the coastal cities at will. And the Army can’t be everywhere prepared for a landing at all times. So yeah it’s got Canada but is having difficulty trading and is vulnerable to a sea borne invasion force.
And all of that is just the sure things. Maybe is the Mexicans are annoyed at us they’ll just let the British land in their ports and walk north. Maybe southerners decide to revive the confederacy with British backing. Maybe the Canadians partisans are constantly attacking the supply routes.
Could America occupy Canada? Sure. Could America win a longterm war against the British? I have doubts. Regardless the whole thing would be an ugly bloody mess.
And all of that is just the sure things. Maybe is the Mexicans are annoyed at us they’ll just let the British land in their ports and walk north. Maybe southerners decide to revive the confederacy with British backing. Maybe the Canadians partisans are constantly attacking the supply routes.
Could America occupy Canada? Sure. Could America win a longterm war against the British? I have doubts. Regardless the whole thing would be an ugly bloody mess.
It doesn't have to be that late, but it would certainly have to be way later than 1830s, unless it the alt-history involves Britain being involved in some other major war at the same time.
Nope. 1865, maybe, if they don't demobilise. The US demobilised nearly everything from the Civil War and by 1875 only a single ironclad remained in service. The US economy did not catch up to the British until the 1880s and the US military establishment before ww1 remained beyond pathetic.