And To Think It Might Have Happened: A Ukraine War Timeline

The Ukraine has no chance of victory, especially in March. The Russians will go through their army like a hot knife through butter. :(
 
Considering the timeline and events proposed the russian army would likely invade with upwards of 50 thousand soldiers not including FSB and Interior ministry troops.The purpose would be to take over Donetsk,Luhanks,Kharkiv,Zaporizhia and parts of Dnepropetrovks and Kherson oblasts.This would put them in control of about a quarter of Ukraine.One question would be if they wanted to take over Odessa oblast.I'd say depends on how much they want to completely cuff off Ukraine from the Black sea.Although considering the fact the russian ships were attacked the desire for a complete elimination of any naval threat would be important.So lets say Russian naval infantry has landings in Odessa and probably the Bugeac region.Its unlikely Putin would go all the way to Kiev for the simple reason that it would be a bit too costly.As for Belarus or anyone else joining the war on the russian side unlikely since the russians don't need anyone else at least for this kind of war.The ukrainian army in march would collapse quickly with little to no combat experience at this point.But its quite likely that volunteer militia would form.As for NATO mobilisation except for some polish moves i don't see it.Britain and the US would want to avoid openly provocating Moscow.In fact behind the scenes the White House would probably pressure Kiev to accept any deal the russians are offering.The logic would be give them eastern Ukraine so as to avoid having russian tanks in western Ukraine basically at NATO's doorstep especially with possibly trigger happy poles in the region.The whole war would end by late April if not sooner assuming a start of the russian offensive around 26-27 march.
 
March 19, 2014

After a two day long air campaign, Russia launched a ground offensive into Ukraine at dawn, occupying the city of Luhansk with little resistance. Their initial objective was to reach the Dnieper to create a corridor to Crimea. The most northern point of advance was on Kharkiv, where Russian T-80s engaged Ukrainian T-72s, with both sides taking losses. The 19th Motor Rifle Brigade entered Kharkiv, where heavy fighting took place against dug in Ukrainian troops mostly from the 92nd Mechanised Brigade. Many civilians took up arms for or against the Russians, leading to fears of an underlying civil war. The 92nd Mechanised was reported to be holding on against the Russians, despite Russian air support which caused heavy losses amongst Ukrainian armoured units. The 17th Tank Brigade moved up south of Kharkiv but encountered Russian T-90s, which broke through and captured Chuhuiv, and the main highway southeast of Kharkiv. In the north of Luhansk Oblast, Russian forces advanced almost unopposed besides scattered infantry resistance, as Ukrainian forces were ordered to pull back. Much of their forces were sent to reinforce defences in the south of Donetsk Oblast, in preparation of a Russian advance to capture Mariupol and the Azov coast.

In Washington, Secretary of State John Kerry gave a press conference in the White House alongside Secretary of Defence Chuck Hagel, in which Kerry condemned the Russian invasion. Hagel announced that US forces worldwide had been placed on heightened alert, and briefed journalists about the known military movements Russia was making. According to the press conference, NATO had predicted a ground invasion may be possible during the mobilisation of Russian forces, but the Pentagon had dismissed it as too unlikely. It appeared that Putin was aware of this, and had effectively called the West’s bluff. No-one knew how far he would go. President Obama also spoke from the West Wing. He too condemned the Russian actions, and assured the American people that the military would take all necessary measures to preserve peace and protect its European allies. The aircraft carriers Dwight D. Eisenhower and George H.W. Bush were also deployed to Europe alongside their escorting assortment of warships. Many Republicans blamed the foreign policy of President Obama for encouraging Putin’s invasion, by not adopting a firmer line against him. Polls showed a majority of Americans in agreement. Unknown to the public at the time, but the National Reconnaissance Office was reporting to the Pentagon that upwards of at least 80,000 Russian troops were either in Ukraine or deploying near the border.

Stock markets in Europe suffered a major shock, as a full scale war erupted on the continent for the first time since the 2008 war between Russia and Georgia. In Poland and the Baltic States, all military leaves were cancelled and forces placed on high alert. The militaries of Latvia and Estonia both reported record levels of recruitment in the days following the war, while the United States announced new funding to build a pair of air bases in Estonia.

In the United Kingdom, the invasion happened on the same day as the weekly Prime Minister’s Questions, and predictably dominated the talks. Prime Minister David Cameron and Leader of the Opposition and Labour Party Ed Miliband showed solidarity in condemning the Russian invasion, and the usual violent arguing that made the sessions so famous was nowhere to be seen. The announcement of British troops being deployed to Europe was welcomed, as was the confirmation from the Ministry of Defence that an additional £8 billion was being injected. Some criticised the additional funds as too little, too late, and that defence cuts had been responsible for encouraging Putin to act.

At an emergency session of the United Nations, China proved to be the biggest backer of Russia, claiming that it had legitimate interests in Ukraine after a "resurgence of fascism" which had been seen amongst some protestors following the revolution. The United States criticised the Chinese position, and little was achieved.

March 20, 2014

As the Battle of Kharkiv dragged on, a Russian armoured offensive managed to dislodge defences from the cathedral and force the defenders to withdraw to the railway network in the east, leaving half the city in Russian hands. An armoured attack from the northwest to encircle the defenders was beaten back with heavy losses, after five Russian T-72s were knocked out. Ukrainian engineers destroyed much of the railways to deny it to the Russians. Extra pressure was put on the Ukrainians by fire from the 9th Guards Artillery Brigade. Many units began to fall back towards a staging area at Poltava. The Russian Black Sea Fleet also mobilised and conducted attacks on the remains of the Ukrainian Navy, sinking several ships with no losses of its own.

Russian bombing of eastern Ukraine intensified, with civilian casualties in the thousands, and many thousands of refugees began to flood into Poland, Moldova, and Romania. Major road arteries were jammed with fleeing cars, with neighbouring governments opening their borders to the refugees. The countryside of some areas of Poland and Romania became blanketed with makeshift tents, as the government tried to care for all the refugees. Local people received commendation for their generosity to their neighbours.

In Britain, around 1,000 Ukrainians protested outside the Russian Embassy in Holland Park, London, as well as hundreds more people from various backgrounds. Similar scenes took place in Paris, Washington, and Berlin.
The United States and European Union announced a series of economic sanctions on Russia, while the European Union also announced that it would be writing off two thirds of all debts owed to it by Ukraine.

March 21, 2014

Ukrainian T-64s from the 1st Armoured Brigade were the first to encounter a Russian offensive in the north, targeting the strategic intersection north of Shostka. The T-64s managed to hold off the advance for a brief period before being destroyed by a helicopter attack, allowing the 9th Motorised Rifle Brigade to capture the road intersection unopposed. The first non-Russian national forces were also observed in combat, when the 37th Motor Rifle Brigade from the Uzbekistan Ground Forces spearheaded an attack on Izyum, confirming the involvement of CSTO. The CSTO forces’ main mission was at this point to control all territory east of Highway M03. However, the incursions in the north implied that they intended to capture everything east of the Dnieper. This came as a complete surprise to the West, which believed that the invasion was only to occupy the southeast.

The Battle of Kharkiv continued, with additional Ukrainian forces from the 72nd Mechanised Brigade moving in to reinforce while Russia stepped up its air campaign against the city, flattening entire neighbourhoods in what was described as a humanitarian catastrophe. BBC broadcasts from the ruins of the city streets shocked the world, with corpses lying in the streets. Ukrainian infantry made several counterattacks, retaking areas of the Fruzensky District while fighting went on in the Kharkiv Metro, allowing both sides to conduct raids behind enemy lines. The fighting appeared to have reached a practical stalemate with few gains, but Russian units outside the city were gradually encircling it.

The 810th Marine Brigade of the Russian Naval Infantry made an amphibious landing on the Sea of Azov coast in southeast Ukraine, while ground forces moved in from Russia to capture Mariupol. The Russian marines moved on Melitopol, backed up by heavy bombing. Ukrainian defences were mostly infantry, which lacked enough anti-armour equipment to deal with the BMPs or BTRs rolling towards the city. Much of the defence simply melted away, as Ukrainian troops headed north, expecting to find friendly forces in or around the major cities. Russian Il-76s soon landed at the aerodrome in Melitopol to ferry in reinforcements. Efforts to create the corridor to Crimea appeared to be nearing completion.

Casualties in just three days of war had quickly mounted, with some estimates placing 1,000 dead on the Ukrainian side and around 400 for the Russians. Estimations on the number of civilian casualties were at over 7,500.

According to sources within the Belarussian government, there was a significant argument about whether or not Belarus should enter the war, with the government apparently opposed. The Russian Ambassador had been seen visiting the President numerous times, and international fears erupted that a wider war could begin if Belarus joined. Anti-war protests begin to take place in cities across Belarus, with the government doing surprisingly little to disperse them.

March 22, 2014

In the north of Ukraine, the 19th and 136th Motor Rifle Brigades attacked the city of Sumy, which was mostly defended by Ukrainian infantry and civilian militias. Russian APCs were soon able to get a foothold and with heavy fighting penetrated deeper into the city, scattering the largely disorganised civilian militia. The first Kazakh forces involved in the war were deployed when Su-25s from the 602nd Air Base bombed military targets on the highway south of Shostka. Kazakh forces later that day spearheaded an advance into northern Ukraine with the 3rd Mechanised Division and 3rd Separate Motor Rifle Brigade advancing down Highway M02 unopposed, before being ambushed by anti-armour teams which knocked out four Kazakh BMP-2s. But at least 30 Kazakh T-72s took part in an operation to capture Konotop Air Base, which quickly succeeded and allowed Russian transports to fly in further reinforcements. The 3rd Mechanised Division then took up defensive positions around Konotop, as the city of 90,000 people surrendered without a fight, encouraged by its mayor who appealed to the inhabitants to accept the inevitable rather than die. Street protests against the occupiers still took place, with the same level of violence as the Euromaiden.

In nearby Kharkiv, Ukrainian forces were dislodged from the city centre and forced to withdraw further south, their territory shrinking as more Russian forces moved into the battered city. An airstrike destroyed a tower block suspected of harbouring snipers, killing 462 civilians. Ukrainian engineers began using explosives to create makeshift trenches as last ditch static lines of defence against Russian advances. Up to 5,000 civilians in the city were believed to have died in just a few days of war.

In southern Ukraine, additional forces which had captured Melitopol began moving west towards Kakhovka. Much of the Ukrainian defences in the region were crumbling, as Russian forces captured virtually everything east of the Dnieper in the south. The 28th Guards Mechanised Brigade attempted a counteroffensive, striking south to recapture Vasylivka and hopefully split the forces in the south into two. The 28th had some success as they come up against scattered infantry units, and managed to enter Vasylivka. But they had no air cover, and Russian Mi-24s picked them off one by one before routing the remaining forces. Hours later, what remained of the Ukrainian forces stationed in Kherson Oblast were ordered across the Dnieper, to relative safety.

President Obama announced that he had authorised the US military to share intelligence with Ukraine, and that advisors were being sent in to help train new Ukrainian recruits. The old Cold War tactic of brinkmanship seemed to be returning, with the West unwilling to show the same weakness that encouraged the invasion. Russia accused the West of provoking wider hostilities, and in retaliation threatened to cut off all oil supplies to NATO members. Stock exchanges hit new lows, with emergency measures put in place to prevent an economic crash.

In Cincinnati, a candlelight vigil was held in the city’s Downtown in a tribute to its sister city of Kharkiv. Many people flew the Ukrainian flag, which was becoming a common sight in the United States out of respect for the resistance the country was putting up.
 
The Ukraine is doing remarkably well considering... well, everything. I remember that back in April we discussed how half of the Ukrainian army would defect to the Russians in the case of war, and most of the other half would desert. How are they sustaining the fuel for the tanks and the ammo for their troops if they were having difficulties supplying food and pay-checks back then?
 
Last edited:
The T-72 does exist in the ukrainian arsenal but based on existing data mostly in storage.It seems more like the T-84 would be used.As for reactions the canadians would probably be among the most vocal critics of the russians,for the simple fact that they have a large minority of ukrainians.
 
The way things are going, all you'd have to do is change the dates of the events in the first post and this could be a thread in the Future History forum.

I wrote a thread like that a while back starting in the period following a ussian annexation of Ukraine and subsequently escalating into WW3 due to a Russian invasion of the Baltic States, Poland and Romania (in what Putin originally intended as a short, limited war)
 
March 19, 2014

After a two day long air campaign, Russia launched a ground offensive into Ukraine at dawn, occupying the city of Luhansk with little resistance. Their initial objective was to reach the Dnieper to create a corridor to Crimea. The most northern point of advance was on Kharkiv, where Russian T-80s engaged Ukrainian T-72s, with both sides taking losses. The 19th Motor Rifle Brigade entered Kharkiv, where heavy fighting took place against dug in Ukrainian troops mostly from the 92nd Mechanised Brigade. Many civilians took up arms for or against the Russians, leading to fears of an underlying civil war. The 92nd Mechanised was reported to be holding on against the Russians, despite Russian air support which caused heavy losses amongst Ukrainian armoured units. The 17th Tank Brigade moved up south of Kharkiv but encountered Russian T-90s, which broke through and captured Chuhuiv, and the main highway southeast of Kharkiv. In the north of Luhansk Oblast, Russian forces advanced almost unopposed besides scattered infantry resistance, as Ukrainian forces were ordered to pull back. Much of their forces were sent to reinforce defences in the south of Donetsk Oblast, in preparation of a Russian advance to capture Mariupol and the Azov coast.

In Washington, Secretary of State John Kerry gave a press conference in the White House alongside Secretary of Defence Chuck Hagel, in which Kerry condemned the Russian invasion. Hagel announced that US forces worldwide had been placed on heightened alert, and briefed journalists about the known military movements Russia was making. According to the press conference, NATO had predicted a ground invasion may be possible during the mobilisation of Russian forces, but the Pentagon had dismissed it as too unlikely. It appeared that Putin was aware of this, and had effectively called the West’s bluff. No-one knew how far he would go. President Obama also spoke from the West Wing. He too condemned the Russian actions, and assured the American people that the military would take all necessary measures to preserve peace and protect its European allies. The aircraft carriers Dwight D. Eisenhower and George H.W. Bush were also deployed to Europe alongside their escorting assortment of warships. Many Republicans blamed the foreign policy of President Obama for encouraging Putin’s invasion, by not adopting a firmer line against him. Polls showed a majority of Americans in agreement. Unknown to the public at the time, but the National Reconnaissance Office was reporting to the Pentagon that upwards of at least 80,000 Russian troops were either in Ukraine or deploying near the border.

Stock markets in Europe suffered a major shock, as a full scale war erupted on the continent for the first time since the 2008 war between Russia and Georgia. In Poland and the Baltic States, all military leaves were cancelled and forces placed on high alert. The militaries of Latvia and Estonia both reported record levels of recruitment in the days following the war, while the United States announced new funding to build a pair of air bases in Estonia.

In the United Kingdom, the invasion happened on the same day as the weekly Prime Minister’s Questions, and predictably dominated the talks. Prime Minister David Cameron and Leader of the Opposition and Labour Party Ed Miliband showed solidarity in condemning the Russian invasion, and the usual violent arguing that made the sessions so famous was nowhere to be seen. The announcement of British troops being deployed to Europe was welcomed, as was the confirmation from the Ministry of Defence that an additional £8 billion was being injected. Some criticised the additional funds as too little, too late, and that defence cuts had been responsible for encouraging Putin to act.

At an emergency session of the United Nations, China proved to be the biggest backer of Russia, claiming that it had legitimate interests in Ukraine after a "resurgence of fascism" which had been seen amongst some protestors following the revolution. The United States criticised the Chinese position, and little was achieved.

March 20, 2014

As the Battle of Kharkiv dragged on, a Russian armoured offensive managed to dislodge defences from the cathedral and force the defenders to withdraw to the railway network in the east, leaving half the city in Russian hands. An armoured attack from the northwest to encircle the defenders was beaten back with heavy losses, after five Russian T-72s were knocked out. Ukrainian engineers destroyed much of the railways to deny it to the Russians. Extra pressure was put on the Ukrainians by fire from the 9th Guards Artillery Brigade. Many units began to fall back towards a staging area at Poltava. The Russian Black Sea Fleet also mobilised and conducted attacks on the remains of the Ukrainian Navy, sinking several ships with no losses of its own.

Russian bombing of eastern Ukraine intensified, with civilian casualties in the thousands, and many thousands of refugees began to flood into Poland, Moldova, and Romania. Major road arteries were jammed with fleeing cars, with neighbouring governments opening their borders to the refugees. The countryside of some areas of Poland and Romania became blanketed with makeshift tents, as the government tried to care for all the refugees. Local people received commendation for their generosity to their neighbours.

In Britain, around 1,000 Ukrainians protested outside the Russian Embassy in Holland Park, London, as well as hundreds more people from various backgrounds. Similar scenes took place in Paris, Washington, and Berlin.
The United States and European Union announced a series of economic sanctions on Russia, while the European Union also announced that it would be writing off two thirds of all debts owed to it by Ukraine.

March 21, 2014

Ukrainian T-64s from the 1st Armoured Brigade were the first to encounter a Russian offensive in the north, targeting the strategic intersection north of Shostka. The T-64s managed to hold off the advance for a brief period before being destroyed by a helicopter attack, allowing the 9th Motorised Rifle Brigade to capture the road intersection unopposed. The first non-Russian national forces were also observed in combat, when the 37th Motor Rifle Brigade from the Uzbekistan Ground Forces spearheaded an attack on Izyum, confirming the involvement of CSTO. The CSTO forces’ main mission was at this point to control all territory east of Highway M03. However, the incursions in the north implied that they intended to capture everything east of the Dnieper. This came as a complete surprise to the West, which believed that the invasion was only to occupy the southeast.

The Battle of Kharkiv continued, with additional Ukrainian forces from the 72nd Mechanised Brigade moving in to reinforce while Russia stepped up its air campaign against the city, flattening entire neighbourhoods in what was described as a humanitarian catastrophe. BBC broadcasts from the ruins of the city streets shocked the world, with corpses lying in the streets. Ukrainian infantry made several counterattacks, retaking areas of the Fruzensky District while fighting went on in the Kharkiv Metro, allowing both sides to conduct raids behind enemy lines. The fighting appeared to have reached a practical stalemate with few gains, but Russian units outside the city were gradually encircling it.

The 810th Marine Brigade of the Russian Naval Infantry made an amphibious landing on the Sea of Azov coast in southeast Ukraine, while ground forces moved in from Russia to capture Mariupol. The Russian marines moved on Melitopol, backed up by heavy bombing. Ukrainian defences were mostly infantry, which lacked enough anti-armour equipment to deal with the BMPs or BTRs rolling towards the city. Much of the defence simply melted away, as Ukrainian troops headed north, expecting to find friendly forces in or around the major cities. Russian Il-76s soon landed at the aerodrome in Melitopol to ferry in reinforcements. Efforts to create the corridor to Crimea appeared to be nearing completion.

Casualties in just three days of war had quickly mounted, with some estimates placing 1,000 dead on the Ukrainian side and around 400 for the Russians. Estimations on the number of civilian casualties were at over 7,500.

According to sources within the Belarussian government, there was a significant argument about whether or not Belarus should enter the war, with the government apparently opposed. The Russian Ambassador had been seen visiting the President numerous times, and international fears erupted that a wider war could begin if Belarus joined. Anti-war protests begin to take place in cities across Belarus, with the government doing surprisingly little to disperse them.

March 22, 2014

In the north of Ukraine, the 19th and 136th Motor Rifle Brigades attacked the city of Sumy, which was mostly defended by Ukrainian infantry and civilian militias. Russian APCs were soon able to get a foothold and with heavy fighting penetrated deeper into the city, scattering the largely disorganised civilian militia. The first Kazakh forces involved in the war were deployed when Su-25s from the 602nd Air Base bombed military targets on the highway south of Shostka. Kazakh forces later that day spearheaded an advance into northern Ukraine with the 3rd Mechanised Division and 3rd Separate Motor Rifle Brigade advancing down Highway M02 unopposed, before being ambushed by anti-armour teams which knocked out four Kazakh BMP-2s. But at least 30 Kazakh T-72s took part in an operation to capture Konotop Air Base, which quickly succeeded and allowed Russian transports to fly in further reinforcements. The 3rd Mechanised Division then took up defensive positions around Konotop, as the city of 90,000 people surrendered without a fight, encouraged by its mayor who appealed to the inhabitants to accept the inevitable rather than die. Street protests against the occupiers still took place, with the same level of violence as the Euromaiden.

In nearby Kharkiv, Ukrainian forces were dislodged from the city centre and forced to withdraw further south, their territory shrinking as more Russian forces moved into the battered city. An airstrike destroyed a tower block suspected of harbouring snipers, killing 462 civilians. Ukrainian engineers began using explosives to create makeshift trenches as last ditch static lines of defence against Russian advances. Up to 5,000 civilians in the city were believed to have died in just a few days of war.

In southern Ukraine, additional forces which had captured Melitopol began moving west towards Kakhovka. Much of the Ukrainian defences in the region were crumbling, as Russian forces captured virtually everything east of the Dnieper in the south. The 28th Guards Mechanised Brigade attempted a counteroffensive, striking south to recapture Vasylivka and hopefully split the forces in the south into two. The 28th had some success as they come up against scattered infantry units, and managed to enter Vasylivka. But they had no air cover, and Russian Mi-24s picked them off one by one before routing the remaining forces. Hours later, what remained of the Ukrainian forces stationed in Kherson Oblast were ordered across the Dnieper, to relative safety.

President Obama announced that he had authorised the US military to share intelligence with Ukraine, and that advisors were being sent in to help train new Ukrainian recruits. The old Cold War tactic of brinkmanship seemed to be returning, with the West unwilling to show the same weakness that encouraged the invasion. Russia accused the West of provoking wider hostilities, and in retaliation threatened to cut off all oil supplies to NATO members. Stock exchanges hit new lows, with emergency measures put in place to prevent an economic crash.

In Cincinnati, a candlelight vigil was held in the city’s Downtown in a tribute to its sister city of Kharkiv. Many people flew the Ukrainian flag, which was becoming a common sight in the United States out of respect for the resistance the country was putting up.

Interesting timeline. It will be interesting to see

1 Whether this stays limited to a Russian takeover of Eastern Ukraine and Crime only or whether Russia decides to conqour the entire country

2 Reaction from NATO. Will this be limited to political condemnation or whether there wil be some form of military response risking further escalation or a new Cold War.
 
March 23, 2014

In Kharkiv, news teams broadcasted attempted Russian assaults against Ukrainian trenches, only to be repelled. But by dusk, the defences were overwhelmed and the order given to surrender Kharkiv. Ukrainian forces were running out of fuel and ammunition, and there were reports of mass desertion. With the battle over, hundreds had died on both sides in some of the bloodiest fighting Europe has seen since World War Two, the short Battle of Kharkiv having been of a ferocity which killed more civilians than the Siege of Sarajevo. News broadcasts showed long lines of Ukrainian soldiers retreating away from the city on foot; one CNN broadcast live from the city’s outskirts was interrupted when a Russian Su-24 attack fighter strafed the retreating soldiers, dropping a pair of general-purpose bombs on an abandoned BMP-2, killing several men in the process. International organisations including the United Nations called on both sides to negotiate, but Ukraine refused unless Russia vacated all Ukrainian territory.

In northern Ukraine, Kazakh and Russian forces restarted their western advance with the targets of Nizhyn and Pryluky. The 1st Armoured Brigade intervened, despite having lost almost a third of their number to desertion, with outnumbered T-80s taking on Kazakh T-72s near Borzna. But with no air cover, they were easily picked off by Russian helicopters after being spotted and tracked by reconnaissance aircraft. Parts of their number defected to Russian forces. CSTO forces continued their advance, with Nizhyn in sight by nightfall. The Ukrainian 3rd Army Aviation Regiment showed itself, with Mi-24s blunting the advance with attacks against Russian tank units, before most of the helicopters were lost to ground fire or Russian fighter aircraft.

In Kiev, regular bombing of infrastructure and economic targets continued to cause heavy damage. President Oleksandr Turchynov narrowly avoided death when a bomb struck his safehouse on the city's outskirts. He was evacuated to Lviv, in the west of the country.

The United States Air Force and British Royal Air Force began flying fighter aircraft over western Ukraine, in a show of strength. However, they kept clear of being anywhere near airspace under which the Russians had control. The same day, Russia ordered all of its available submarines to put to sea in the largest submarine operation since World War Two. The huge deployment, tracked and monitored by the British and Norwegians as the submarines headed into the North Atlantic, raised deep concerns in the capitals of the West. Russia also increased the number of nuclear bomber flights over Alaska, Canada, Britain, and Scandinavia; in Scotland, four separate incursions into British airspace took place on this day. Putin was challenging the West, to see who would blink first. Fearing what his response would be otherwise, NATO prepared for an even tougher response.

March 24, 2014

Units previously committed to Kharkiv began to steamroll their way towards Poltava, whose population was down by two thirds as most people had evacuated to the other side of the Dnieper. The 92nd and 93rd Guards Mechanised Brigades defended the city but, with many of their armoured vehicles lacking adequate fuel, quickly fell back into the deserted suburbs. But the Russians, knowing the towns were abandoned, made very heavy and almost indiscriminate use of artillery and air support. Tu-22 bombers flattened entire neighbourhoods with cluster bombs, though one was shot down by ground fire. Heavy urban fighting followed on the ruined streets strewn with debris, but as night fell the defenders were ordered to scatter into the countryside to the west and try to contain the attackers. Throughout the night they were hit by more airstrikes.

By this point, southeast and southern Ukraine was entirely under the thumb of Moscow. It was increasingly clear that the Russians intended to occupy all land east of the Dnieper. There were also mounting fears that the Russians were preparing to place their own economic sanctions on the West, including a hike in oil prices. Fearing the effect of such action, the European Union entered into secret negotiations with Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Mexico for preferential treatment in oil sales, including below-market access to their oil supplies, in the event of a Russian energy embargo. Plans were also in place in the United States and United Kingdom to cooperate in the faster development of shale gas extraction.

In response to the war, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) passed a resolution to temporarily strip Russia of its voting rights; its rights to be represented in the Bureau of the Assembly, the PACE Presidential Committee, and the PACE Standing Committee; and its right to participate in election-observation missions. The same day, during an emergency meeting, the United Kingdom, the United States, Italy, Germany, France, Japan, and Canada temporarily suspended Russia from the G8.

March 25, 2014

The Ukrainian government issued a general order of retreat across the Dnieper, in the name of saving human life by preventing war from destroying more of the country. The one exception was Kiev, where a strong defensive line was formed where the city lay east of the Dnieper. By nightfall, Russian tanks and troops were right on the city’s border. The air campaign against Ukraine was called off, and an uneasy peace began to settle. Half of Ukraine was now under Russian control. 9,000 Ukrainian soldiers, 6,000 Russians, and 15,000 civilians had been killed or wounded in the eight day long war.

March 26, 2014

Russia further escalated tensions by announcing that all occupied Ukrainian territory would be absorbed into Russia as several new republics, if approved by referendum. Luhansk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Zaporizhia, Kherson, eastern Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Sumy, and Chernihiv all made up these new territories of Russia. A low-level insurgency against the Russians began at this date; headline news was dominated by amateur video posted online, which seemed to capture Russian commandos executing captured insurgents in farmland. The offices of numerous Ukrainian newspapers in the east were also raided, with journalists arrested. With the foreign press in danger, Internet bloggers became the most trusted source of footage from Russian-occupied Ukraine.

March 27, 2014

British Airways Flight 12, an Airbus A380 flying from London to Singapore, was shot down over Bryansk Oblast, Russia by a reservist air-defence unit on wartime alert, after mistaking it for a threatening military aircraft. The inexperienced Russians were later judged to have panicked, having never contacted a higher command before launching the missile which brought the plane down. All 522 people aboard were killed, 437 of them British. Among the dead was the British government’s Minister of State for Trade and Investment, Lord Livingston, the former CEO of BT Group, who was scheduled to attend a business conference in Singapore. With the exception of the September 11 attacks, it was the second deadliest air disaster in history after the Tenerife airport disaster of 1977. The airspace over Ukraine had been closed days earlier but Russian skies had not been judged a threat, and the European Union had avoided curtailing flights over Russia to avoid it being interpreted as a further economic sanction. The incident’s parallels with Korean Air Lines Flight 007, which was shot down by the Soviet Union in September 1983, were quickly noticed. They had the same effect, spurring a huge spike in tensions as President Putin accused the West of using the tragedy as an excuse to further increase their hostility. The decision by Putin not to immediately acknowledge the Russian responsibility is judged by historian's as a disastrous mistake, as he instead blamed the 522 deaths on western governments. The revelation that the disaster was purely accidental and down to simple bad luck would not be discovered until it was far too late.

The Russian Embassy in London was vacated, with its occupants ordered out of the United Kingdom following the deaths of 437 British citizens at the hands of the Russian Air Force. Russia retaliated by expelling the diplomatic missions of all NATO countries from Moscow. Almost seventy years of peace and stability in Europe was beginning to fall apart.
 
Last edited:
OTL flights through Crimean airspace were prohibited by the European Aviation Safety Agency due to the competing claims over airspace, and in a scenario were wider parts of Ukraine are directly taken over (rather than just a ground-level "insurgency"), I'd expect that the only commercial flights over eastern Ukraine would be Russian ones.

And even with just the insurgency (which was not expected to have extensive AA equipment), low-level flights were stopped. With a full on invasion (that includes an air superiority campaign), it would be pretty unlikely for there to be no official action on it.

And even in lieu of official action, no sane airline would fly through a warzone between two modern countries with large airforces and missile equipment. You can't really parallel it with the OTL situation where they expected mostly a few people with Kalashnikov's and limited heavy weaponry. Here you have the full presence of one of the largest and best-equipped armies in the world, as well as a large airforce on high alert. BA would have an outright criminal liability here.
 
OK, I agree with Letum, but one additional point to this: I don't think 777-300s can carry 522 people.

Now, if you want it to be an Airbus A-380, that's fine.

And it was a KAL 007, not 008.

Thank you.
 
The Ukraine is doing remarkably well considering... well, everything. I remember that back in April we discussed how half of the Ukrainian army would defect to the Russians in the case of war, and most of the other half would desert. How are they sustaining the fuel for the tanks and the ammo for their troops if they were having difficulties supplying food and pay-checks back then?

Seconded. Even if they can hold out for a few days, once they start running low there will be problems.

EDIT: And it looks like that's what happened.
 
OTL flights through Crimean airspace were prohibited by the European Aviation Safety Agency due to the competing claims over airspace, and in a scenario were wider parts of Ukraine are directly taken over (rather than just a ground-level "insurgency"), I'd expect that the only commercial flights over eastern Ukraine would be Russian ones.

And even with just the insurgency (which was not expected to have extensive AA equipment), low-level flights were stopped. With a full on invasion (that includes an air superiority campaign), it would be pretty unlikely for there to be no official action on it.

And even in lieu of official action, no sane airline would fly through a warzone between two modern countries with large airforces and missile equipment. You can't really parallel it with the OTL situation where they expected mostly a few people with Kalashnikov's and limited heavy weaponry. Here you have the full presence of one of the largest and best-equipped armies in the world, as well as a large airforce on high alert. BA would have an outright criminal liability here.

Seconded. That's really pushing it.
 
NATO starting to fly air missions over Western Ukraine could well result in an unexpected escalarin. I cann see Romania, the Baltic Staes and Poland getting more tha a little nervous at this point though NATO will be desperately trying to avoid being dragged further into the conflict.

I would however expect some naval response of a more defensive nature such as US Carrier Battlegroups deployng into the Atlantic and Meditterranean. Plus reinforcement of NATO positions in Eastern Europe/ NATO might consider aprecautionary deployment ino the Baltic Sttes as well.

Such deployments would be defensivein nature bu would also be intended to convey a political message t Puti.

An emergency session of the UN Security Council would likely be called urgently in this situation to try to defuse the crisis before it gets even worse,particularly after the shootdown of the British Airbus 380. I rthink Cameron would be convening COBRA and calling an emergency UN Security Council meeting as a direct result of that. And definately calling an emergency commons debate.
 
Just a thought. This war is taking place during the spring thaw rasputitsa season. The mud will present significant problems for both sides with alternating thaw and freezing. April will see warmer empretures and the ground will start drying out.
 
Last edited:
Putin and NATO probably don't want to be at war with each other over Ukraine but may find themselves dragged into such a conflict whether they want it or not
 
I think the Russians would NOT shoot down a plane. They have IFF and most likely know how to use it.

Tell that to KAL 007, KAL 902, Iran Air Flight 655, Siberia Airlines Flight 1812, and of course MH 17. IFFs mean jack shit when you're operating on targeting radar.
 
Top