Hnau
Banned
The Point-of-Divergence is a much more dangerous Black Death that springs from Central Asia, not a Rice & Salt mix, but definitely closer than its real counterpart. Argue if you wish on how such a fatal disease could never spread as widely or quickly, or that it could never be that virulent, but the premise is that the bubonic plague gets around these limitations. If you research the disease, there is much we don't understand about it and the great epidemic that it caused, so, there are more than enough possibilities.
Oh, yeah, this is my first timeline, so, please see me off well. Thank you for any comments or suggestions you might give.
The Black Death in East Asia
1334
The Black Death utterly erases the populace of the Hubei Province in China. The plague claims 99% of the population, nearly six million in numbers. Following the chaos of the plague, only 50,000 stragglers remain in the entire province. Among the dead include a young Xu Shouhui and Chen Youliang, a cloth vendor and a fisherman who in OTL would have become a leader of a major rebellion.
To the Chinese peasants, this appears as an act of the gods, especially so soon after Toghun Temur succeeded to the throne in 1333. Many began to doubt the Khan’s mandate of heaven, leading to greater instability and stronger rogue factions.
1337
El Aiju, son of the recently-deceased warlord El Temur (who was the de facto leader of China for a few years), leads a rebellion against the remaining warlords and the Great Khan Toghun Temür. Bayan, a leading warlord and minister of the Secretariat, attempts to seize more and more of the Khan’s power in attempt to crush the rebellion.
1339
Toghun Temur joins secretly with El Aiju and Bayan’s own nephew, Toghtogha, in order to oust Bayan in a coup. The coup succeeds, with Bayan, the Crown Prince El Tegus and his mother Budashirri, being thrown out of the court. El Aiju sees to it that Bayan is killed, against Toghtogha’s wishes. An internal power struggle sees Toghun Temur having El Aiju banished and Toghtogha becoming a very powerful leader. The Emperor then begins to purge officials that had dominated the administration, which causes more instability.
1340
El Aiju begins rebuilding his power base. His followers begin taking on a religious tone, declaring that the Emperor has lost the mandate of heaven. Toghtogha, with his father Majartai, prove the rebels right by installing a dictatorship of their own much like his uncle.
1346
Emperor Toghun Temur nearly pulls off a coup to oust Toghtogha, however, a rebellion led by salt dealers against the government monopoly forces El Aiju’s alliance to begin a nationwide revolution. Toghtogha becomes extremely more powerful with his war-time dictates.
1347
Followers of the White Lotus and Manichaeism rise up to resist Toghun Temur and Toghtogha as well, under the name of the Red Turban Army, which some other pro-Mongolian rebel warlords resent. The Southern Red Turban Army never rises, with key individuals lost in the Death of 1334, but instead evolves as a disorganized rebellion with Zi Wenjun as its most important leader.
1350
When Toghtogha leads a large army to crush the Red Turban rebels, Toghun Temur launches a long-awaited coup for fear of betrayal. It results in the end of the dictatorship, which the populace is somewhat grateful for, but also a rapid weakening of the central government.
1351
Crown Prince Ayushiridar launches a coup against Toghun Temur. He immediately lends his support towards pro-Mongolian warlords, as well as El Aiju himself, in order to take the Mandate of Heaven. El Aiju, involved in internal power struggles himself to be named the Emperor following victory, decides this is the best chance to take power. Toghtogha attempts to join the alliance, however, Ayushiridar does not trust his record of dictatorship. The splintering factions take to a civil war in the very heart of the empire, in a time of famine, disease and natural disasters, which allows numerous forces to make huge gains against the government.
1352 - 1353
As Ayushiridar begins to consolidate gains in the center of the Empire and push out the loyalists, a second wave of the Black Death strikes central China. Following imperial trade routes, the devastating disease strikes chronologically Suiyuan, Shanxi,and Henan in a blitz that empties all connected population centers. Ayushiridar vainly proclaims that the plague is a sign of the gods that will destroy the rebels and followers of Toghun Temur, to pave his path to attaining the mandate of heaven. However, shortly thereafter, Dadu itself succumbs to the disease, with Red Turban soldiers secreting dead bodies into the center of the city. Ayushiridar refuses to leave, again believing that the plague will destroy only enemies hidden amongst the cities, but dies shortly thereafter, leaving a power vacuum that will once again ignite warfare even amongst the time of disaster. The Black Death stalls in Hubei, still sparsely populated even 20 years after the first outbreak, however it eventually continues its way into Hunan, Jiangxi, then Guangdong and finally Guangxi. The plague strikes some coastal cities and ports, but quarantines and lucky flukes are able to save many on the coastline. The most serious loss is that of Hangzhou, the second most populous city at that time, which falls quickly when it suffers an outbreak in 1353.
The Black Death has cut a huge corridor through China, from the reaches of Inner Mongolia down to the South China Sea. Rats, dogs, ravenous birds and other scavengers dominate emptied cities. Many villages suffer a 100% casualty rate, the only survivors having fled at the soonest notice of trouble. Peasants wander miles and miles searching for others, finding only apocalyptic destruction. The Asian outbreak, along with the civil strife before and after, ultimately leads to the death of 93% of the entire population of the Empire of the Great Khan. A pre-plague population of roughly 60 million in 1333 has dropped to only just a dismal 4 million.
The socio-economic effects can only begin to be analyzed. For years few will brave the corridor of death, effectively isolating east and west China. With the region around Dadu devastated as well, the south Chinese cannot come into contact with the Mongolians more northwards. The problem of significant population differences will affect the face of China forever afterward, with once-small ethnic groups becoming much more powerful, for example the Koreans, who suffered mostly only from ripple effects from the plague. Effects on religion, philosophy, and ideology are very difficult to analyze.
The Black Death in Europe
1346
The Golden Horde khan, Jani Beg, has been leading a siege on the Crimean port city of Kaffa for three years. To his worst luck, however, merchants from East Asia have inadvertently brought the Black Death to the surrounding Mongol armies. As his soldiers fall like flies, Janibeg flees with a small contingent, believing Satan himself to be pouring out of the tiny city. It is believed that a pursuing army that chased the Mongols for two days accidentally took the Black Death into the port city on their return. Genoese traders, who soon discovered the horrible outbreak, began to flee for their lives to destinations in the Mediterranean. Meanwhile, Caffa becomes home to rats, fleas, looters and bodies stacked high against the walls.
1347
Genoese traders bring the Black Death to Trebizond and Constantinople. By autumn, its populations will plummet, deaths taking up to 80%, with much of the remainder becoming refugees on ships ignorant enough to take them. By October, Genoese ships are found grounded on many shorelines throughout the Mediterranean, which were thoroughly looted, helping spread the disease. Some traders, through sheer luck, managed to arrive in various ports, such as Venice, Alexandria, the port city of Messina, Sardinia, and even as far away as Genoa. Nevertheless, the Black Death traveled with them. Another notable incident is the spread of the Black Death through an army which besieged Baghdad, bringing the Black Death deep into the Middle East.
---
To be continued...
Oh, yeah, this is my first timeline, so, please see me off well. Thank you for any comments or suggestions you might give.
The Black Death in East Asia
1334
The Black Death utterly erases the populace of the Hubei Province in China. The plague claims 99% of the population, nearly six million in numbers. Following the chaos of the plague, only 50,000 stragglers remain in the entire province. Among the dead include a young Xu Shouhui and Chen Youliang, a cloth vendor and a fisherman who in OTL would have become a leader of a major rebellion.
To the Chinese peasants, this appears as an act of the gods, especially so soon after Toghun Temur succeeded to the throne in 1333. Many began to doubt the Khan’s mandate of heaven, leading to greater instability and stronger rogue factions.
1337
El Aiju, son of the recently-deceased warlord El Temur (who was the de facto leader of China for a few years), leads a rebellion against the remaining warlords and the Great Khan Toghun Temür. Bayan, a leading warlord and minister of the Secretariat, attempts to seize more and more of the Khan’s power in attempt to crush the rebellion.
1339
Toghun Temur joins secretly with El Aiju and Bayan’s own nephew, Toghtogha, in order to oust Bayan in a coup. The coup succeeds, with Bayan, the Crown Prince El Tegus and his mother Budashirri, being thrown out of the court. El Aiju sees to it that Bayan is killed, against Toghtogha’s wishes. An internal power struggle sees Toghun Temur having El Aiju banished and Toghtogha becoming a very powerful leader. The Emperor then begins to purge officials that had dominated the administration, which causes more instability.
1340
El Aiju begins rebuilding his power base. His followers begin taking on a religious tone, declaring that the Emperor has lost the mandate of heaven. Toghtogha, with his father Majartai, prove the rebels right by installing a dictatorship of their own much like his uncle.
1346
Emperor Toghun Temur nearly pulls off a coup to oust Toghtogha, however, a rebellion led by salt dealers against the government monopoly forces El Aiju’s alliance to begin a nationwide revolution. Toghtogha becomes extremely more powerful with his war-time dictates.
1347
Followers of the White Lotus and Manichaeism rise up to resist Toghun Temur and Toghtogha as well, under the name of the Red Turban Army, which some other pro-Mongolian rebel warlords resent. The Southern Red Turban Army never rises, with key individuals lost in the Death of 1334, but instead evolves as a disorganized rebellion with Zi Wenjun as its most important leader.
1350
When Toghtogha leads a large army to crush the Red Turban rebels, Toghun Temur launches a long-awaited coup for fear of betrayal. It results in the end of the dictatorship, which the populace is somewhat grateful for, but also a rapid weakening of the central government.
1351
Crown Prince Ayushiridar launches a coup against Toghun Temur. He immediately lends his support towards pro-Mongolian warlords, as well as El Aiju himself, in order to take the Mandate of Heaven. El Aiju, involved in internal power struggles himself to be named the Emperor following victory, decides this is the best chance to take power. Toghtogha attempts to join the alliance, however, Ayushiridar does not trust his record of dictatorship. The splintering factions take to a civil war in the very heart of the empire, in a time of famine, disease and natural disasters, which allows numerous forces to make huge gains against the government.
1352 - 1353
As Ayushiridar begins to consolidate gains in the center of the Empire and push out the loyalists, a second wave of the Black Death strikes central China. Following imperial trade routes, the devastating disease strikes chronologically Suiyuan, Shanxi,and Henan in a blitz that empties all connected population centers. Ayushiridar vainly proclaims that the plague is a sign of the gods that will destroy the rebels and followers of Toghun Temur, to pave his path to attaining the mandate of heaven. However, shortly thereafter, Dadu itself succumbs to the disease, with Red Turban soldiers secreting dead bodies into the center of the city. Ayushiridar refuses to leave, again believing that the plague will destroy only enemies hidden amongst the cities, but dies shortly thereafter, leaving a power vacuum that will once again ignite warfare even amongst the time of disaster. The Black Death stalls in Hubei, still sparsely populated even 20 years after the first outbreak, however it eventually continues its way into Hunan, Jiangxi, then Guangdong and finally Guangxi. The plague strikes some coastal cities and ports, but quarantines and lucky flukes are able to save many on the coastline. The most serious loss is that of Hangzhou, the second most populous city at that time, which falls quickly when it suffers an outbreak in 1353.
The Black Death has cut a huge corridor through China, from the reaches of Inner Mongolia down to the South China Sea. Rats, dogs, ravenous birds and other scavengers dominate emptied cities. Many villages suffer a 100% casualty rate, the only survivors having fled at the soonest notice of trouble. Peasants wander miles and miles searching for others, finding only apocalyptic destruction. The Asian outbreak, along with the civil strife before and after, ultimately leads to the death of 93% of the entire population of the Empire of the Great Khan. A pre-plague population of roughly 60 million in 1333 has dropped to only just a dismal 4 million.
The socio-economic effects can only begin to be analyzed. For years few will brave the corridor of death, effectively isolating east and west China. With the region around Dadu devastated as well, the south Chinese cannot come into contact with the Mongolians more northwards. The problem of significant population differences will affect the face of China forever afterward, with once-small ethnic groups becoming much more powerful, for example the Koreans, who suffered mostly only from ripple effects from the plague. Effects on religion, philosophy, and ideology are very difficult to analyze.
The Black Death in Europe
1346
The Golden Horde khan, Jani Beg, has been leading a siege on the Crimean port city of Kaffa for three years. To his worst luck, however, merchants from East Asia have inadvertently brought the Black Death to the surrounding Mongol armies. As his soldiers fall like flies, Janibeg flees with a small contingent, believing Satan himself to be pouring out of the tiny city. It is believed that a pursuing army that chased the Mongols for two days accidentally took the Black Death into the port city on their return. Genoese traders, who soon discovered the horrible outbreak, began to flee for their lives to destinations in the Mediterranean. Meanwhile, Caffa becomes home to rats, fleas, looters and bodies stacked high against the walls.
1347
Genoese traders bring the Black Death to Trebizond and Constantinople. By autumn, its populations will plummet, deaths taking up to 80%, with much of the remainder becoming refugees on ships ignorant enough to take them. By October, Genoese ships are found grounded on many shorelines throughout the Mediterranean, which were thoroughly looted, helping spread the disease. Some traders, through sheer luck, managed to arrive in various ports, such as Venice, Alexandria, the port city of Messina, Sardinia, and even as far away as Genoa. Nevertheless, the Black Death traveled with them. Another notable incident is the spread of the Black Death through an army which besieged Baghdad, bringing the Black Death deep into the Middle East.
---
To be continued...