I beg to differ - pretty much all major events (the Babylonian captivity, for example) and important people (all prophets after Mozes, along with all kings, including David and Salomo) that affected the history of the Hebrews and their religion will be butterflied away.
There's no way that that would make the Jewish religion only "slightly different"!
Ah, but these were people and events - David, captivity; people and events can easily be duplicated. David was a ruler, there could easily be a similar man who comes to power in this TL (the captivity could be made analogous to perhaps the Hebrews of Madagascar being pushed out of Madagascar for awhile during the migration from the east). The basis for their faith was mostly laid down by the time they left Egypt.