@DanMcCollum - thanks for the support and good vibes :)

@Icedaemon, @cmakk1012 - you see, even inside the prospect of the TL, which certainly has some exaggeration and narrative luck involved, it doesn't seems too plausible at the time moment. What I have in mind is to put the Crusaders in Egypt vis-a-vis a Caliphate that has already collapsed into anarchy (which will happen a little bit later in the future). The Christians still need some time to consolidate Syria, and even a large Crusader army coming from Europe, in these circumstances, won't necessarily be a good thing for an invasion of Egypt, especially considering the logistical concerns such an undertaking would demand.

@jocay - your suggestion about a potential failure by the Crusaders is actually very similar to OTL expeditions undertaken by King Amalric. They became overconfident and entered the Nile Delta in a period of intense flood, and effectivelly became stranded in hostile territory, without supplies. It was a complete disaster. I hope our alt-Crusaders have a lot more common sense...

@Colonel flagg - in a nutshell: they are far better than IOTL. The Seljuks and the Danishmends have been mostly eliminated as significant political and military threats; the Empire has, on paper, reannexed the central provinces of Anatolia and Trebizond, reaffirmed the hold over Cilicia - whose independence will be butterflied awau ITTL - and is pronging into Armenia. But, in reality, things are more complicated: it is struggling to restore the demographic and economic potential of these regions, and John II Komnenos, like Alexios before him, is very cautious about overstretching the dominion, especially considering that they still regard Edessa as a convenient buffer to deter attacks from the Seljuks in Jazira.

Also, John Komnenos will live a bit longer than IOTL, because, so far, the circumstances of his life have diverged a little bit; I believe to be plausible that he could easily avoid his historical death, which involved a hunting accident, in which he (1) cut himself with a poisonous arrow and (2) ignored the festering wound.

@UnaiB - interesting idea, I'll have it in mind. Although, to be honest, I'm not too inclined about having divergences happen everywhere else in Europe, because it is hard to keep track on all of them. I've been making exceptions for some cases (notably Aquitaine), when I see instances in which an historical death could be reasonably avoided (for example, Duke William X died when he went to Spain and cought a disease there; I believe this one episode could be butterflied away under other circumstances). As a whole, however, unless a divergence is mentioned in the TL, things will happen exactly or similarly to OTL.

@Marse Lee - no problem, friend, good to see you here. I intend to go the TL as far as I can, with the alternate 20th Century likely being the final destination.

The colonization of the Americas, indeed, is something we've discussed often in the thread. I'm of the opinion that if the Europeans have an easier access to the southern and far eastern Asian markets, by the way of the Red Sea, the transatlantic voyages, at least in the way we see them, will either not happen or simply be delayed in comparison to OTL.

However, I do intend to explore possibilities involving other venues of exploration. In this forum, we frequently discuss the case of the Basque or Breton fishermen in the Grand Banks, which is an interesting one, or English or Nordic explorers. Anyways, those are flexible ideas, you feel open to forward your suggestions too!

@galileo-034 and @Archangel - indeed! The County of Portucale was, for lack of better expression, a pain in the ass to the Spanish kingdoms (notably Leon). But, in the other hand, its independence, as it occurred IOTL, could be avoided if we changed the circumstances (especially, the capture of Lisbon by the forces of the Second Crusade). Indeed they might be giving the Leonese/Castillians a fairly bad time in their eternal wars against the Andalusian polities (especially the Almohads, who were very formidable), but I'll need to meditate a bit about the details.

@TyranicusMaximus and @UnaiB - we sure could think, too, about the likehood of an independent Occitania/Aquitaine being interested in the region of Catalonia, even if it enters a personal union with the House of Aragon. Its reasonable to pressupose that a de facto autonomous Occitania would be ever interested in the geopolitical occurrences of the Iberian peninsula, being more focused in the Mediterranean than France would ever be.
 
I eagerly await what the arriving crusaders expecting a grand old bash in Crusade #2 will actually be able to do then; I doubt any major lord just wants to simply turn back home home after coming all this way.

@galileo-034 and @Archangel - indeed! The County of Portucale was, for lack of better expression, a pain in the ass to the Spanish kingdoms (notably Leon). But, in the other hand, its independence, as it occurred IOTL, could be avoided if we changed the circumstances (especially, the capture of Lisbon by the forces of the Second Crusade). Indeed they might be giving the Leonese/Castillians a fairly bad time in their eternal wars against the Andalusian polities (especially the Almohads, who were very formidable), but I'll need to meditate a bit about the details.

Perhaps thus means that in this timeline we have a Leon which controls Lisbon, but occasionally has to contend with a kingdom of Galicia which is largely dominated by the county of Portucale?

They do have a rather nice banner, in my opinion.
Escudo_reino_de_galicia.jpg
 
I not really sure why any of this would occur some of these are possible but all of these seem unlikely and it into many to remember just because something would be cool does not mean we should do it
 
@Icedaemon; @UnaiB and @Wolttaire - well, it seems that the subject of Portugal aroused some interest, to my honest surprise.

I confess I did not really give it a lot of thought, so I just handwaved it in the previous discussion posts; in my plans, the only definitive feature of interest about Iberia in the High Middle Ages would be a quicker Reconquista, and this only because the Almohads, who were the last existential threat against the Castillian expansionism, will be affected by the circumstances occurring in the North Africa and the Near East. Now, when I mentioned the fact that Portugal would likely not become independent, it is simply, as I might have mentioned previously, because I figured that, IOTL, the capture of Lisbon by the English and Flemish troops of the (historical) Second Crusade was a HUGE event in the formation of Portugal as an independent state, and I was adopting a premise by which its avoidance would likely prevent the existence of this kingdom.

However, reading up a bit, I realize that I myself confused the dates; the official establishment of Portugal occurred in 1138, almost ten years before the Second Crusade, and Alfonso Henriques was, by then, already firmly entrenched as Count of Portucale, poised to later be proclaimed a monarch by his armies. Considering that I intend to avoid "unnecessary" and improbable divergences, and will make an effort to assess the accordance of historical events, this means that I'll have to attend to the subject (later) in bigger detail.

I personally like the idea of having a more powerful Galicia, perhaps one geographically similar to the ancient Suebic kingdom, and this would mean sacrificing Portugal as an independent entity, but, on the other hand, it also would be interesting to see how a more hegemonic Leon/Castille would interact with the Crusader world, once the divergences pile-up. I do need to devote some attention to the Reconquista, but I want to at least wrap up the more important details of the "Outremer arc" (erm... for lack of better expression) before we amplify the scope to see the Iberian, Baltic and Scandinavian Crusades.

I thank you all, once again, for the input. It is odd to realize that the TL has been going for almost two (real life) years. Obviously, the hiatuses of various consecutive months were very significant. However, I once again stress how it is very interesting to have productive and qualified discussions on these matters (for me, personally, considering that the study of History is certainly my favorite area of intellectual interest), and how you various readers and posters have been keeping this story ALIVE through all these months.
 
Big Galicia sounds interesting -- a Castillian Algarve and OTL Southern Portugal would also be a huge divergence down the line, locking the Galicians out of wasting money on trying to keep Tangiers and also giving Castille a probable unipolar monopoly on exploration (which could mean slower exploration if they are also drawn into European conflicts more than OTL Portugal).
 
@St. Just - My thoughts exactly. But then, having Castille more successful (earlier than OTL) in Andalusia, it increases the likelihood, as we discussed previously, of them transforming the "Reconquista" into a pure "Conquista" of Morocco. However, indeed the most interesting divergences might result from the event smaller alternate-Portugal (or Portugalicia, I liked that name).

@Colonel flagg - I intend to do so soon enough, one specific to the current TL, of course :)

@ALF0N53 - It might be. Again, it is but an idea, and I'm not concerned about the details of the Iberian polities for the time being. Given the interest of the readers here, however, I'm committed to write some specific chapters discussing possible divergences pertinent to the Reconquista in the greater context of the European religious warfare.
 
48. The Year in Which Heavens and Earth Fell in Turmoil (1138 A.D.)
1280px-Aus_der_SinaiWueste_-_Eugen_Bracht.jpg


Non-contemporary painting (uncertain period) depicting a plateau in the Sinai Desert, traversed by the hajji caravans of Muslims going to Mecca (c. 1600)


When spring began, in 1138, not long before the questions pertaining to the partition of the Damascene country were solved, the Latin armies, reinforced by the new European Crusaders, readied to march. Mildly discomposed by the onset of an incessant rain, they found out that, while the encrusted plateaus of Palestine became verdant a grassland, it also transformed the coastal and riverine lowlands into grey morasses.

After much debate, the upper echelon of the Crusader leadership agreed that the most suitable target for their next expedition was Egypt. By then, they were certainly aware that the King of France had pledged to join the Crusade, and there was a great euphoria and expectation as they prepared the new campaign, believing that they ought to establish a convenient beachhead in the Nile Delta to permit further operations inland.

The Christians knew, of course, that the Fatimids were, once again, in turmoil - as it had become all too frequent in these turbulent years. The current Caliph was Abu’l-Maymūn ‘Abd al-Majīd ibn Muḥammad ibn al-Mustanṣir al-Ḥāfiz li-Dīn-Allāh [Latin: Aläphis Dinalal], cousin of the previous one, Abū ʿAlī Manṣūr al-Āmir bi'Aḥkāmi’l-Lāh [Latin: Alamirus], who had been assassinated in 1130. Al-Ḥāfiz had hitherto acted solely as the regent for his cousin’s infant son and successor, at-Ṭayyib Abū'l-Qāṣim ibn al-Manṣūr [Latin: Atalin], but, in 1134, he usurped the throne and proclaimed himself the Caliph. This act provoked not only another dynastic war, but also a religious schism, once al-Ṭayyib escaped to Yemen, whereupon he was recognized as the rightful Imam (founding the Taiyyibi sect), while those who recognized al-Ḥāfiz were affiliated to the Hafizid sect. The new Caliph waged a brief war to oust the Armenian factionalists affiliated to al-Afdhal Kutayfât, the son of al-Afdal Shashanshah, and Vizier under the previous Caliphs, but this fact, by itself, made him dependent on the support of his own Turcoman mamluks, whose barbarity made the citizens of Fustat suffer on daily basis.

If the political moment was convenient for an invasion coming from the Latin Principality, the same could not be said about the seasonal one. The spring of 1138 was particularly rainy in the Outremer, and it is said that even the arid sand-lands of the Sinai became colored with beds of flowers and poppies after they had been washed by dark-clouded heavens.

Capturing the fortress of Alariche/Rhinocolura [Arabic: el-ʻArīsh] in the northern Sinai was easy enough for such a Frankish army of professional soldiers and heavy cavalry, and, now that they were received by gentle winds and with sweet water instead of scorching dry winds, the Crusaders endeavored to reduce the ancient fortress of Narcal [Arabic: Nekhel], located in the very center of the Sinai peninsula. While the site was one of minor military significance, with a minor Fatimid garrison, it was nonetheless a sensible strategic target, because it served as a stopping-point of the hajji caravans. After the stronghold was submitted, it is said that the Latins extorted all the Muslim pilgrims with such a rapacity that they were beggars when they arrived in Mecca.

However, the same rains that allowed the Franks to annex the Sinai provinces were also the ones that thwarted their advance into the Egyptian mainland. The constant downpours had inundated the Nile Delta and transformed the wetlands and canals of the northeastern Delta into an impassable swamp, ridden with dangerous fauna, from famished crocodiles to venomous insects.

Even so, the Christians did attempt to cross the quagmire, with various makeshift canoes, and sought to encircle the ancient walled port of Pelusium, that they called “Pelousione”, in Greek pronounciation [Arabic: Tell al-Farama]. It was but a matter of time before this large agglomeration became afflicted by all sorts of typical diseases, from malaria to dysentery; hundreds of soldiers and auxiliaries had to be moved in dozens of carts to Jaffa, Jerusalem and Acre, where they crowded the infirmaries of the Hospitaller Order.

After a couple months, before the coming of summer, thinned by disease and hunger, the Christians accepted offers of tribute from the Caliph and agreed to lift the siege and return to Palestine, but refused to surrender the captured settlements in the Sinai. It is clear that the Latins intended to resume the campaign soon thereafter, perhaps even in the next year, but, by then, the Seljuq offensive against Edessa had already thwarted their plans, forcing them to devote their resources and manpower to prosecute a war in Syria.


*****​


C0BHbwZXAAABk5z.jpg


Non-contemporary painting of Aleppo (c. 1400). Its Citadel, one of the oldest extant fortifications of the world, is prominently featured



In October 1138, the sources tell us of a cataclysmic earthquake in northern Syria, one that could be felt as far south as Damascus and as far west as Adana.

Aleppo, then a bustling metropolis of sixty thousand denizens, was ruined by the wrath of the chthonic entities. A contemporary source, Hamza ibn Asad abu Ya'la ibn al-Qalanisi, the former ra’is of Damascus, now resident of Baghdad, describes that the earth itself opened as if it were the maws of Bahamūt itself. A special mention is given to the collapse of substantial portions of its famous Citadel, because a fraction of the rocky promontory on which it is situated (even today) crumbled down.

Later writers, most notably John Cinamus [Greek: Ioannes Kinnamos], historian of the Komnenoi period, describe the material and human losses: the destruction of houses, churches, libraries, baths and citadels, as well as the perishing of thousands of souls. Grammatikos Michael Glykas writing in the late 12th Century, is the only Christian source that links a series of seismic occurrences in the same period: earthquakes in Jaziria in 1137 and in 1139 in Shirvan.

Other settlements in the region, such as Zardana, Idlib and Atarib, albeit with lesser human loss due to the fact that they were not as populous as Aleppo, also suffered greatly, while the collapse of the citadel of Harem made the villagers completely abandon the place, which disappears from History for centuries.

In spite of the immediate efforts of the Constantinopolitan administration to provide relief and support for the affected communities, the immense structural devastation, coupled with the sheer emotional impact of the tragedies, provoked a noticeable exodus from the Syrians and Arabs living in the region, most notably the Muslims, as they seemed to believe that the land itself was cursed now that it was under the reign of the Christians. Many of them migrated to Iraq and to Persia, while many of the Christians unwilling to stay voyaged to western Anatolia, whereupon they were given lands to resettle.

This, in turn, provoked a discrete economic recession in northern Syria, notwithstanding the fact that it was experienced a rather peaceful period, as the trade routes were disrupted by the ruin of Aleppo. Caravaneers, appalled to see that Aleppo was seemingly a hollow city, protected by immense walls, but inhabited mostly by the Rhōmaîoi soldiers, avoided it, and instead traveled by the way of Edessa before going southwest to Antioch. This, too would not last, considering that the imminent restart of hostilities between the Franks in Edessa and the Seljuqs would all but terminate the commercial influxes across northern Syria and Jaziria for the next successive years, and the region as a whole will take more than a decade to experience a genuine recovery.

Aleppo, in such a short time, fell from grace among the greatest cities of Syria, and would take many years to recuperate from the disaster, but the Imperial Court, knowing of its economic and demographic potential, invested greatly in its recovery. While John Komnenos favored and stimulated the migration of Greeks, he authorized the resettlement of families of Orthodox Hungarians and Volochi [Vlachs]; even nowadays we can find vestiges of their heritage in Aleppo and in Zardana.

Alas, it can be seen, indeed, to anyone devout and fearful of God, that these calamities will serve as a grim prelude of one of the bloodiest conflicts of the 12th Century, about to initiate.


____________________________________________________________


Comments: I know the story did not advance a lot on this chapter, but I wanted to devote some attention to the historical earthquake of 1138 in Aleppo, considering that it is regarded one of the most tragic and deadly natural disasters in human history, barring much more recent earthquakes in the 19th Century. Geologic and natural events will be unaffected by butterflies, so I wanted to explore some details about it.

And about Egypt, it is too soon for an outright conquest. Next time, perhaps?
 
So the update mentions a Seljuq push towards Edessa -- I suppose the rest of the 2nd Crusade will be intended to quashing Taj-al-Mulk Buri and perhaps the Great Seljuqs, who was foreshadowed way back as causing a great deal of trouble for the Crusaders.
 
I suspect that once the Rhomans get wind of the the Crusaders trying to get a beachhead in the Nile Delta, they might sent a expedition to try and capture Alexandria.
 
And now... finally, a Map of the Near East!
Well, everyone I am very happy and fortunate to present you, in attention to various requests in this regard, this MAGNIFICENT AND EXCELLENT MAP, crafted by the ingenious hands of our fellow alt-historian @Cattette, who generously accepted a commission on my behalf, and endeavored, in the span of only a couple days, to make one of the finest pieces I've seen in this Forum.

I'm taking the opportunity, here, to divulge this one instance of her amazing work, but, also, I feel earnestly compelled to indicate the link to her DeviantArt page, where you can see other of her pieces: https://www.deviantart.com/cattette. It is an opportunity for everyone of us to support her work, so, please, don't skip it and take a look, it is very much worth it.

I'm posting from imgur because I wanted to have the image in its full size available here (and also HERE):


7R4tiCH.jpg


This is an approximate map of the geopolitical situation of the Near East by the year of 1140. I say "approximation" only because it is of the nature of the chaotic political circumstances of the region that border and frontier settlements constantly change hands. As we'll see in the next few chapters, the borders of Edessa, in particularly, are the most fluid, but here we can have a notion, frozen in time.

Now, in this map, as you can see, the Latin Principality holds Damascus, conquered in 1138, but also Homs and the nearby regions, including Shayzar and Hama. This is a significant anticipation of the counterfactual developments we'll soon be seeing in the TL, as you can guess.

The important thing, in my opinion, is the conclusion that the TL has pointed out many times: the territory of this alternate-Kingdom of Jerusalem is significantly bigger than the one of OTL (in which it was mostly confined to Palestine and Samaria), and it has access to the richer and economically more relevant parts of Syria, all while being "protected" in the northern flank, by a more expansive Rhomania.

Hope you have liked it! All credits due to @Cattette, to whom I, once again, for the fitfh or sixth time, express my enormous gratitute and compliment for the generosity.

 
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