Analyze this POD: Safavids vs. Ottomans in 1514

[corourke]

I am in the beginning stages of a TL and need some input on my POD. This is mostly so that I can avoid people coming into the thread and telling me that my POD makes no sense.

So, what if the Safavids hadn't been so badly beaten in the Battle of Chaldiran? In OTL the Ottomans defeated the Persian army and went on to occupy the Safavid capital, only to quickly withdraw because of a mutiny amongst the troops.

So, what if the mutiny had happened right before the battle? In this WI, the Ottoman troops revolt the day before the famous battle of Chaldiran, causing the Ottoman army to have to move its camp. Much of the artilery is destroyed or left behind in the move, and the Ottoman troops by and large do not sleep well.

I will take Wikipedia's mid-estimate for each army, thus Persians (Wikipedia: 50,000 - 80,000) have 65,000 troops and Ottomans (Wikipedia: 60,000 - 200,000) have 130,000 troops. However we will say that 1/4 (30,000) of the Ottoman Army actively revolts, and another 1/6 (20,000) refuse to comply by deserting or disobeying orders.

The battle the next day is a loss for the Persians, though not a decisive one. The technologically superior Ottoman Army, despite being drastically weakened by the mutiny, is able to withstand the Persian attack. However due to the revolt, Selim I is hesitant to press on with the attack and the invasion is abandoned. A few minor conflicts don't lead to much, and the war is eventually ended with a white peace / minor border adjustments.

I would infer these effects from the POD:

1. Eastern Anatolia remains in the hands of the Safavids, at least temporarily.
2. Safavid loss teaches them the value of gunpowder-based warfare (as in OTL).

I'm shooting for a stronger Safavid Empire to serve as a counterbalance to the Ottomans in the Middle East, at least during the 16th century.


So how does this look?

 

[Philip]

Assuming this happens, the Safavids remain more Turkic and the emperor can continue his claim to be Mahdi. Persia does not (at least yet) become completely Shi'ite.

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

Selim was the greatest general of the House of Osman - his letting things progress to mutiny is extremely unlikely, and the troops, extremely well-disciplined in this era, are not going to mutiny without a huge provocation. In OTL, they didn't mutiny, they were just very grumbly about being so far from home for so long.

The border with Iran is there for a reason. Eastern Anatolia is much more accessible from Istanbul than it is from Persia - there is really little chance of the Safavids holding it.

If you want a better result for Persia I would have Selim fall ill and be unable t command. Just note that the Ottoman army was so overwhelmingly superior in every possible regard in this era that they really had no chance. Maybe if the Ottomans have a harder time of it some European powers might try to take advantage and tie up Ottoman military resources Westward, allowing the Persians time to recoup, and not as badly smashed as in OTL, behave in a more aggressive manner. But keep in mind that due to religion, Persia, despite its military weakness, was a larger inherent threat and this could provoke another Ottoman campaign against Persia, and it would take decades for Persia to institute any real change to its military system.

I am in the beginning stages of a TL and need some input on my POD. This is mostly so that I can avoid people coming into the thread and telling me that my POD makes no sense.

So, what if the Safavids hadn't been so badly beaten in the Battle of Chaldiran? In OTL the Ottomans defeated the Persian army and went on to occupy the Safavid capital, only to quickly withdraw because of a mutiny amongst the troops.

So, what if the mutiny had happened right before the battle? In this WI, the Ottoman troops revolt the day before the famous battle of Chaldiran, causing the Ottoman army to have to move its camp. Much of the artilery is destroyed or left behind in the move, and the Ottoman troops by and large do not sleep well.

I will take Wikipedia's mid-estimate for each army, thus Persians (Wikipedia: 50,000 - 80,000) have 65,000 troops and Ottomans (Wikipedia: 60,000 - 200,000) have 130,000 troops. However we will say that 1/4 (30,000) of the Ottoman Army actively revolts, and another 1/6 (20,000) refuse to comply by deserting or disobeying orders.

The battle the next day is a loss for the Persians, though not a decisive one. The technologically superior Ottoman Army, despite being drastically weakened by the mutiny, is able to withstand the Persian attack. However due to the revolt, Selim I is hesitant to press on with the attack and the invasion is abandoned. A few minor conflicts don't lead to much, and the war is eventually ended with a white peace / minor border adjustments.

I would infer these effects from the POD:

1. Eastern Anatolia remains in the hands of the Safavids, at least temporarily.
2. Safavid loss teaches them the value of gunpowder-based warfare (as in OTL).

I'm shooting for a stronger Safavid Empire to serve as a counterbalance to the Ottomans in the Middle East, at least during the 16th century.


So how does this look?

 

[corourke]

If you want a better result for Persia I would have Selim fall ill and be unable t command. Just note that the Ottoman army was so overwhelmingly superior in every possible regard in this era that they really had no chance. Maybe if the Ottomans have a harder time of it some European powers might try to take advantage and tie up Ottoman military resources Westward

This will probably be my strategy. I might have to kill Selim I in order to have this work in the long-term, but I would be looking at something like this for a short-term solution:

March 1514: Selim I falls ill and must leave his campaign against Persia. In his place he appoints General Dilek, a relatively young noble from Smyrna. Later in the spring Dilek loses a portion of the artillery in an ill-advised crossing of the the river Murat, which was swollen with spring rains.

May - August 1514: General Dilek, unsure of himself, makes several indecisive feints into Safavid territory, sacking a few towns in the border region.

September 1514: Impending mutiny in the ranks of the Ottoman invasion force causes Dilek to doubt his troops' loyalty. Dilek begins to withdraw to Ottoman territory, but is assaulted by a Safavid army. Despite their dissatisfaction, the Ottoman troops handily defeat the assaulting Safavid army, causing Dilek to rethink his decision to retreat. The lure of glory proves too great, and Dilek drives his army deep into Safavid territory, attempting to take the capital.

October 1514: Impending winter and frustration with their leader causes a portion of the Ottoman troops to desert. A Safavid attack led by Ismail I engages the weakened Ottoman army, and forces Dilek to retreat away from the capital. A few days later, the remaining Ottoman troops mutiny, and Dilek is killed. The Ottoman army begins its retreat to Ottoman territory. Safavid forces led by Ismail I attempt to destroy the retreating army but are defeated in a number of engagements, up until the Ottoman army reaches the relative respite of inner Anatolia.

Ismail I wisely chooses not to follow the Ottoman army into what would be certain doom, and retreats to his capital of Tabriz.

Hungary and Venice might take this opportunity to attack the Ottomans. I am essentially trying to minimize Ottoman power in the Levant and Mideast.