Anachronistic Audacity

Anachronistic Audacity


In 1996, Illinois State Senator Alice J. Palmer announced that she would not run for another term in the state legislature. Palmer instead opted to run for Congress, and later that year, won election to the House of Representatives. During her campaign for Congress, Palmer received the endorsements of the Reverend Jesse Jackson and his son, Jesse Jackson Jr. As revealed years later, the Jacksons and Palmer had struck a deal in which they would back her bid for Congress while Palmer endorsed Jackson Jr., who entered and easily won the Democratic primary for her State Senate seat. Later that same year, Jesse Jackson Jr. was elected to the Illinois State Senate representing Illinois’ 13th district, succeeding Palmer. Jackson served as a State Senator from 1996-2004, leaving the office upon being elected to the US Senate.

Since her election in 1992, Senator Carol Moseley-Braun had been involved in a few major controversies that left stains on her image. One controversy was a 1993 investigation by the Federal Election Commission for $249,000 in campaign funds that remained unaccounted for, which Moseley-Braun attributed to bookkeeping errors. The Justice Department denied two separate requests from the IRS for an investigation. Another was a controversial visit to Nigeria, where she met with then-dictator Sani Abacha, whose human rights records she would later defend in Congress. Senator Moseley-Braun did not register her trip with the State Department, or even notify the Department of the trip despite US sanctions against Abacha.

When she was up for re-election in 1998, Senator Moseley-Braun trailed her presumed Republican challenger, Peter Fitzgerald, by a large margin in the polls. She was also very unpopular within her own party, suggesting there could be room for another Democrat to challenge her for the nomination. Such a suggestion was not beyond the bounds of reason, considering that Moseley-Braun herself had defeated then-Senator Alan J. Dixon for the Democratic nomination in 1992, and then winning the general election against Republican Richard S. Williamson. Moseley-Braun’s primary challenger was a constitutional law professor at University of Chicago Law School named Barack Obama.

At first, Professor Obama’s candidacy was viewed as a long-shot, despite Moseley-Braun’s deep unpopularity, because he had very little name recognition. Obama entered the Democratic primary in early 1997, and campaigned hard against Moseley-Braun. Within a month of the start of his campaign, Obama had succeeded in getting the word out about his candidacy, but he still trailed Moseley-Braun in the polls. As time passed, Obama gained the endorsement of a number of Democrats in the State Legislature, as well as Chicago Mayor Richard Daley, Reverend Jesse Jackson, and former Senator Paul Simon.

At the Democratic debate, Moseley-Braun and Obama matched wits on the issues. The debate was seen as a victory for Obama, who appeared calm and competent, as opposed to Moseley-Braun, who appeared flustered at times when answering questions she was uncomfortable with. Perhaps the biggest moment of the debate was when the candidates were asked to talk about their race and how it affects them. Moseley-Braun stirred up controversy when she used the N-word to describe how she claims to be a victim of racism. It has been speculated that the use of the word in the debate had turned off many potential African-American voters, as evidenced by her post-debate drop in the polls.

Barack Obama defeated Carol Moseley-Braun and won the Democratic nomination for the US Senate. His Republican challenger was State Senator Peter Fitzgerald, who had been elected in 1992. The 1998 election was hard-fought between Fitzgerald and Obama, with each having an advantage over the other. For Obama, the advantage was that Illinois voters tended to favor Democrats over Republicans, giving him an edge in securing votes. For Fitzgerald, it was that Obama had no prior experience in government, making Fitzgerald more qualified for the position due to his service in the State Senate. Obama’s complete lack of experience in government was a major issue in the campaign, and became the centerpiece of Fitzgerald’s campaign. Obama managed to fend off Fitzgerald’s accusations of not being ready to serve by asserting his knowledge of the issues. He managed to hold his own against Fitzgerald in the debates.

Obama and Fitzgerald polled close all throughout the race, though Obama had always held a lead over Fitzgerald. In terms of fundraising, Obama had managed to rake in more than his opponent, and he also managed to gain the endorsement of a number of high-profile Democrats, including Vice President Al Gore, who made an appearance at one of his campaign stops. It came as no surprise when Barack Obama won election to the United States Senate, defeating Peter Fitzgerald by 121,842 votes.
 
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So I'm going to do something different with this one. Instead of the headline/picture/article thing started under me (and improved by Jay Roosevelt) this one is going to be more generalized explanatory/lecture-based.
 
Interesting concept. Bear in mind, in this scenario having Ibama elected to the Senate will have some pretty big ramifications come the 2000 Senate elections. Assuming the races in 2000 go as per real life, the Democrats would have a majority in that chamber by one seat, even before Jeffords' defection.
 
Anachronistic Audacity


In 1996, Illinois State Senator Alice J. Palmer announced that she would not run for another term in the state legislature. Palmer instead opted to run for Congress, and later that year, won election to the House of Representatives. During her campaign for Congress, Palmer received the endorsements of the Reverend Jesse Jackson and his son, Jesse Jackson Jr. As revealed years later, the Jacksons and Palmer had struck a deal in which they would back her bid for Congress while Palmer endorsed Jackson Jr., who entered and easily won the Democratic primary for her State Senate seat. Later that same year, Jesse Jackson Jr. was elected to the Illinois State Senate representing Illinois’ 13th district, succeeding Palmer. Jackson served as a State Senator from 1996-2004,

Why on earth would JJjr make that deal? The Jackson family had vastly more money and influence than Palmer ever dreamed of. An Illinois state Senate seat is trash compared to a U.S. House seat. And I don't think JJjr even lived in Palmer's senate district.

... leaving the office upon being elected to the US Senate.

No non-black constituency would ever elect a Jackson scion to anything.

Media speculation had initially focused on State Senator Jesse Jackson Jr. as Moseley-Braun’s replacement. Jackson was reportedly approached multiple times by state Democratic officials with offers of support should he choose to run.
Uh-huh. Right. Black politician with a non-racialist, reformist background (her ex-husband was white, she represented the "good government" liberals of Hyde Park) wins a Senate seat by a fluke. She turns out to be sleazy, stupid, and arrogant - a common (though not universal) type among black-constituency politicians.

Media and the Democrat organization then see as her replacement a black politico already known for racialist and sleaze connections? (Jackson sr is a notorious race-hustler and the family has cashed in big time.)

In any case, there was no thought of a primary challenger. Moseley-Braun's black and female loyalists would have been enraged.


Moseley-Braun’s actual primary challenger was a constitutional law professor at University of Chicago Law School named Barack Obama.
Obama was never a professor at UC Law. He was a "senior lecturer", a part-time position.

Obama entered the Democratic primary in early 1998...
The filing deadline for the Illinois primary was in November 1997 (or perhaps December). Obama would have to have started his campaign no later than September 1997.

Within a month of the start of his campaign, Obama had succeeded in getting the word out about his candidacy, but he still trailed Moseley-Braun in the polls. That changed upon receiving the endorsements of State Senator Jesse Jackson Jr. and his father, Reverend Jesse Jackson. With two such high-profile endorsements from popular figures in the state...

He might be able to split the black vote. Seriously, neither Jackson has (or ever had) any influence over non-black voters. And Illinois is only about 10% black. Jackson sr's endorsement is more likely to be a kiss of death.

For Obama, the advantage was that Illinois voters tended to favor Democrats over Republicans, giving him an edge in securing votes.

Which is why Republicans held the governorship for 26 years - 1976 to 2002.

Obama and Fitzgerald polled close all throughout the race, though Obama had always held a lead over Fitzgerald. In terms of fundraising, Obama had managed to rake in more than his opponent, and he also managed to gain the endorsement of a number of high-profile Democrats, including Vice President Al Gore, who made an appearance at one of his campaign stops. It came as no surprise when Barack Obama won election to the United States Senate, defeating Peter Fitzgerald by 121,842 votes.

Right. Illinois voters elect a black Hyde Park supposedly good-government Democrat to the Senate over a Republican candidate who was a placeholder. (Republicans had conceded the general election to Alan Dixon.) That person turns out to be a disaster.

So they elect another black Hyde Park supposedly good-government Democrat to the Senate over a well-funded Republican candidate with a strong record of public office?

Moseley-Braun at least had name recognition - she was a prominent member of the reform Democrats. Obama doesn't even have that.
 
Why on earth would JJjr make that deal? The Jackson family had vastly more money and influence than Palmer ever dreamed of. An Illinois state Senate seat is trash compared to a U.S. House seat. And I don't think JJjr even lived in Palmer's senate district.

This was an actual planned deal in OTL. The PoD is that JJjr accepts the deal instead of declining and running for congress. His father felt that he should gain experience on the state level first before moving on to the national level.

No non-black constituency would ever elect a Jackson scion to anything.

Jesse Jackson jr. =/= Jesse Jackson sr.

Uh-huh. Right. Black politician with a non-racialist, reformist background (her ex-husband was white, she represented the "good government" liberals of Hyde Park) wins a Senate seat by a fluke. She turns out to be sleazy, stupid, and arrogant - a common (though not universal) type among black-constituency politicians.

What the fuck? :mad:

Media and the Democrat organization then see as her replacement a black politico already known for racialist and sleaze connections? (Jackson sr is a notorious race-hustler and the family has cashed in big time.)

In any case, there was no thought of a primary challenger. Moseley-Braun's black and female loyalists would have been enraged.

The same black and female loyalists that just elected her Mayor of Chicago? Oh wait...

Nobody's support is that strong.

Obama was never a professor at UC Law. He was a "senior lecturer", a part-time position.

Technically true, but irrelevant.

The filing deadline for the Illinois primary was in November 1997 (or perhaps December). Obama would have to have started his campaign no later than September 1997.

Thank you for pointing that out, I was unaware of that.

He might be able to split the black vote. Seriously, neither Jackson has (or ever had) any influence over non-black voters. And Illinois is only about 10% black. Jackson sr's endorsement is more likely to be a kiss of death.

It wasn't just Jackson, it was quite a few major Democratic politicians. Moseley-Braun was deeply unpopular back then.

Which is why Republicans held the governorship for 26 years - 1976 to 2002.

Point noted.

Right. Illinois voters elect a black Hyde Park supposedly good-government Democrat to the Senate over a Republican candidate who was a placeholder. (Republicans had conceded the general election to Alan Dixon.) That person turns out to be a disaster.

So they elect another black Hyde Park supposedly good-government Democrat to the Senate over a well-funded Republican candidate with a strong record of public office?

Yes. Isn't politics funny?

Moseley-Braun at least had name recognition - she was a prominent member of the reform Democrats. Obama doesn't even have that.

Not at first. And being prominent does not mean you are undefeatable. Just look at Alan Dixon.
 
Quote: Rich Rostrom
Why on earth would JJjr make that deal? The Jackson family had vastly more money and influence than Palmer ever dreamed of. An Illinois state Senate seat is trash compared to a U.S. House seat. And I don't think JJjr even lived in Palmer's senate district.

This was an actual planned deal in OTL. The PoD is that JJjr accepts the deal instead of declining and running for congress. His father felt that he should gain experience on the state level first before moving on to the national level.

I'd like to see some evidence for this.

Rich Rostrom: No non-black constituency would ever elect a Jackson scion to anything.

Jesse Jackson jr. =/= Jesse Jackson sr.
What has jr done to separate himself from sr? What has jr ever done that wasn't handed to him as sr's son?

Rich Rostrom: She turns out to be sleazy, stupid, and arrogant - a common (though not universal) type among black-constituency politicians.

What the fuck? :mad:
Marion Berry. Sheila Jackson-Lee. Kwame Kilpatrick. Mel Reynolds. A significant fraction of black politicians from all-black constituencies treat election to public office as a sort of anointing into an overlord class - their offices become personal fiefdoms, they expect grovelling servility ("Do you know who I am?"), and cash in reflexively. Most don't. Black politicians from broader constituencies rarely develop this attitude. Obama did not; neither did Roland Burris or Jesse White, who also won statewide office in Illinois.

But Moseley-Braun had it big time.

In any case, there was no thought of a primary challenger. Moseley-Braun's black and female loyalists would have been enraged.


The same black and female loyalists that just elected her Mayor of Chicago? Oh wait...

Nobody's support is that strong.
In 2011, Moseley-Braun was a has-been who'd been out of office for 14 years. In 1996, she was an incumbent US Senator.

This is like claiming that Van Buren's feeble third-party candidacy in 1848 proves he could easily have been defeated for the Democrat nomination in 1836.

Rich Rostrom: He might be able to split the black vote. Seriously, neither Jackson has (or ever had) any influence over non-black voters. And Illinois is only about 10% black. Jackson sr's endorsement is more likely to be a kiss of death.

It wasn't just Jackson, it was quite a few major Democratic politicians. Moseley-Braun was deeply unpopular back then.
Well, then, you should have cited these other Democrats. Instead you have Jackson sr as the Warwick of Illinois. I further note that you refer to Jackson jr as a "popular leader" providing a "high-profile endorsement" when he's only a freshman state senator. If he has a "high profile", it's only because of his father.

Rich Rostrom: Right. Illinois voters elect a black Hyde Park supposedly good-government Democrat to the Senate over a Republican candidate who was a placeholder. (Republicans had conceded the general election to Alan Dixon.) That person turns out to be a disaster.

So they elect another black Hyde Park supposedly good-government Democrat to the Senate over a well-funded Republican candidate with a strong record of public office?


Yes. Isn't politics funny?
Or, to put it another way, one can assume any damn outcome one wants without any regard for plausibility.

Rich Rostrom: Moseley-Braun at least had name recognition - she was a prominent member of the reform Democrats. Obama doesn't even have that.

Not at first.
Previously established name recognition means a lot. One can't just wish it into existence.

And being prominent does not mean you are undefeatable. Just look at Alan Dixon.
Dixon lost to Moseley-Braun because a third candidate in that race spent an immense amount of money on attack ads trashing him.

But yes, prominent candidates sometimes lose to unknowns. It almost always is the result of the prominent one having grossly offended a lot of voters - e.g. Dan Rostenkowski in 1994. They don't choose the other guy, they reject the first guy. Moseley-Braun was in deep trouble in 1998, but it was mainly with swing voters; blacks and liberal feminists hadn't turned on her. She lost to Fitzgerald by less than 3%.The idea of a majority of Democrats repudiating her is implausible.
 
Barack Obama was sworn in as the new Junior Senator from Illinois on January 3rd, 1999, by Vice President Al Gore. Now a member of the 106th Congress, the thrity-seven year old Senator Obama was the youngest African-American ever elected to the Senate, and the only black Senator. Obama made an effort to talk to his peers and establish connections. He received a lukewarm reception from most of them, but also managed to make a few friends (at least as far as politics goes) as well. He joined the Congressional Black Caucus, serving as its youngest member, and the only member of the CBC in the Senate. The most important connection he made during this time was befriending a freshman Senator from North Carolina named John Edwards. Their relationship started out as friendly towards one another, but grew stronger as they served together and got to know each other better.

Senator Obama’s first two years in the Senate proved to be eventful for him. The first event he participated in upon entering the Senate was the impeachment trial of Bill Clinton, where he voted “not guilty” on both the perjury and obstruction of justice charges filed against the President. He served on a number of committees, including Veterans Affairs, Environment and Public Works, Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions, and Foreign Affairs. On nearly every other issue, Senator Obama either voted with his party or voted “present.”

By 2000, he had managed to make somewhat of a name for himself, and demonstrated his usefulness by hitting the campaign trail for Democratic candidates across the nation. At one point, he was mentioned as a possible Vice Presidential choice for Al Gore, and his name was revealed years later to have been on the shortlist along with his friend, John Edwards. Joe Lieberman was Gore’s eventual pick.

Perhaps the most important event of Obama’s Senate career came at the 2000 Democratic National Convention, where he was invited to give the Keynote address. Obama was chosen for the address because he was the youngest African American ever elected to the Senate, and represented opportunity for a younger generation. Obama’s speech, written with helpful suggestions from Senator Edwards, was entitled “A New Millennium.” In his speech, he talked about his life and the struggles he overcame to get to where he was, as well as how the new Millennium brought with it many new opportunities and a fresh start for the world. The speech was very well received and gained national news coverage, turning Obama into an overnight sensation. He began to be seen as a rising star in the Democratic Party.

George W. Bush was elected as the 43rd President of the United States after a close election against Vice President Al Gore. House Republicans lost two seats, one going to the Democrats, and the other going to an independent. In the Senate, both parties were dead even, with 50 Republican Senators and 50 Democratic Senators. If not for the re-election of Slade Gorton, who narrowly defeated Democratic challenger Maria Cantwell after a recount, there would have been a Democratic majority in the Senate.
 
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Very interested in this. I'm assuming Obama is the 2004 Nominee - or perhaps the obvious choice in 2008. Also, if this is a TL where Obama is the focus maybe you'll find ways to prevent the financial crisis so that in 2004 if he runs and wins he's not one and done.

Good work.
 
Interesting idea. Give Obama some more experience in the senate if you have him run for President in 2008. He'll have almost ten years in the senate under his belt.
 
So delving into details isn't nearly as exciting as I thought this would be.

I'm tempted to return to my picture/headline style; but is that taking the easy way out?

Would anybody mind a change in format halfway though this next update?
 
So delving into details isn't nearly as exciting as I thought this would be.

I'm tempted to return to my picture/headline style; but is that taking the easy way out?

Would anybody mind a change in format halfway though this next update?

I don't mind headlines as long as it like The Elephant's Dilemma instead of Reversed Fortunes
 
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