An Unholy Alliance

[ryackov]

August 1939

The Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact is signed. It is primarily a peace treaty with provisions for trade. There are also secret articles dealing with the division of the world into spheres of influence and the enslavement of populations.

October 1939

War breaks out in Europe. Britain and France and their colonies defend Poland from the Nazis by initiating Sitzkrieg against the Germans. The League of Nations also drafts a condemnation of the Germans. As the Nazis overwhelm Polish positions, the Soviets invade Poland.


Foreign Secretary Halifax and Chamberlain defend the Soviet invasion of Poland to Parliament, insisting that it was necessary to defend against future Nazi aggression, and that there is a historical basis for the new Soviet borders.

There are plans by the British to expand barter-based trade with Soviet Russia.

In other news, Secretary of State Hull has demanded the release of the Freighter City of Flint by the Russians, and requested that the Russians clarify their position of neutrality. The City of Flint was seized by the Germans while enroute to Britain and was operated by a prize crew. For some days now, the ship has been docked at Murmansk.


In the following weeks the Soviets ejected the City of Flint, and some time later the freighter was recaptured by the Royal Navy and finally returns to New York, to later be entirely forgotten.

 

[ryackov]

November 1939

Finland and the Soviets begin negotiations for new borders, which fail, leading to border clashes and the start of the Winter War.

Hitler narrowly escapes an assassination attempt, when he leaves a Munich Beer Hall early. He's convinced divine will saved his life. The assassin was never caught.

Everything is going fairly historically.

December 1939

The Soviet Union is expelled from the League of Nations for their invasion of Finland.

The Red Army fails to dislodge the Finns from their defensive positions. Apparently the Soviet officer corps isn't up to the task.
On the otherhand there is no chance of the army ever assassinating Stalin.

The pocket battleship Admiral Graf Spree flees from what is identified as the HMS Exeter and continues convoy raiding in the South Atlantic.

January 1940

A German plane crashes in Belgium, containing plans for the invasion of Belgium.

February 1940

The Red Army breaks through the Mannerheim line.
The Altmark Incident occurs. Norway conducts a full mobilization of her armies.

March 1940

The Finns continue to suffer defeats. Stalin refuse Finnish proposals for peace talks. Finnish resistance increases as they begin to fight like rats for their country.

April-June 1940

Germany initiates the invasion of Denmark and Norway as part of Operation Weserübung on April 9th. Norway is substantially reinforced by British and French expeditionary forces, while Denmark surrenders within weeks. The Luftwaffe from bases in Denmark force the allied navies out from the region, causing allied naval support to be restricted in Northern Norway. Heavy fighting occurs as the Germans bomb and assault Norwegian defensive lines, but fail to dislodge allied forces. Germans divert several divisions into Norway to prevent the conflict from stagnating. This infusion of fresh divisions causes the surrender of Norwa on June 10th, Fall Gelb is significantly delayed as a result.

Neville Chamberlain survives the Norway debate in Parliament.

Sweden remains neutral, however secretly allows the transport of allied munitions through Sweden and into Finland.

The Moldavian SSR annexes Romanian Bessarabia.

The Red Army is marching through Helsinki. On June 17th, Finnish lines collapse and numerous units either surrender or disperse.

July 1940

Elections are quickly held in Finland, and 99% of all Finns overwhelmingly voted for a pro-Soviet parliament. The first and last act of that Parliament is to approve the integration of Finland as an SSR. Guerrillas however contest Soviet occupation.

The Soviet Union also invades the Baltic states within days and initiates parliamentary elections similar to what the Finns had. Three new SSRs form.

In an attempt to collapse both the Soviet Union and Germany, Operation Pike is carried out. Bombers launching from air fields in Northern Iraq were to hit Baku, a site of 90% of Soviet oil production. Nearly a hundred tons of bombs were dropped over the course of several day via numerous sorties, however later sorties had to deal with alert local AA batteries. Due to poor bomb sights compounded by the suppressive effect of AA fire, only 5% of all bombs reached their targets. Only 25% of the Baku oil refining capacity was damaged, but much of the damage was reparable within a month, and so were much of the oil fires.

The Soviet Union declares war on Britain and France. Chamberlain resigns. Churchill becomes Prime Minister.

 

[Cook]

Foreign Secretary Halifax and Chamberlain defend the Soviet invasion of Poland to Parliament...

That’s what you’d call unlikely in any circumstances.

 

[couldawouldashoulda]

unholy moly, that is scary

question is, will hitler still turn his back on stalin as the war goes on? then there would be a real three sided war

 

[TheKinkster]

What is your reasoning/justification for the Soviet Army doing so much better vs the Finns than in OTL?

 

[ryackov]

What is your reasoning/justification for the Soviet Army doing so much better vs the Finns than in OTL?

They kept at it longer.

 

[Cook]

In an attempt to collapse both the Soviet Union and Germany, Operation Pike is carried out. Bombers launching from air fields in Northern Iraq were to hit Baku, a site of 90% of Soviet oil production. Nearly a thousand tons of bombs were dropped, however some of the bomber groups arrived several minutes ahead of schedule, resulting in local AA batteries being alerted. Due to poor bomb sights compounded by AA fire, many bombs failed to reach their targets. Only 20% of the Baku oil fields were damaged, but much of the damage was reparable within a month.

That would require 500 Wellington Bombers. (Max Bomb load 2000Kg), and a ridiculous number if using Blenheims (Max load 500kg) Bomber Command started 1940 with only 8 squadrons of Wellingtons, that’s less than 120 aircraft in total. I’m not sure they could have fielded 500 Wellingtons in July 1940 but I am pretty sure they could not have flown them all to Mosul and operated them from the limited facilities there. Historically the British had planned to use four squadrons of Blenheims made up of 48 aircraft; total deliverable bomb load in a night: 24 tons.

The oil fields around Baku are extensive to say the least; they are also extremely spread out, making them very difficult to bomb. The target of Operation Pike was the oil refineries concentrated in Baku.

 

[Julian]

Stalin would never approve of a declaration war on the Allies, even after a bombing of Baku. Soviet foreign policy was always to grab whatever land it could and allow the two sides to duke it out while appeasing Germany until the Red Army could be properly modernized. Once modernization was completed all appeasement would be unecessary and the Soviet Union would likely declare war on Germany in 1942. Stalin was well aware that at some point Hitler would betray him; he just couldn't accept that it could happen in 1941 (He expected at least an ultimatum first), well before the Red Army was ready. He would never be deluded enough to believe that acting as a blatant co-belligerent with Germany (IE, actually at war with Britain) would serve as a better form of appeasement than the economic control the Soviet Union exercised over Germany. Declaring war on Britain would limit the Soviet Union's options, something Stalin never wanted.

 

[ryackov]

That would require 500 Wellington Bombers. (Max Bomb load 2000Kg), and a ridiculous number if using Blenheims (Max load 500kg) Bomber Command started 1940 with only 8 squadrons of Wellingtons, that’s less than 160 aircraft in total. I’m not sure they could have fielded 500 Wellingtons in July 1940 but I am pretty sure they could not have flown them all to Mosul and operated them from the limited facilities there. Historically the British had planned to use four squadrons of Blenheims made up of 48 aircraft in total; total deliverable bomb load in a night: 24 tons.

The oil fields around Baku are extensive to say the least; they are also extremely spread out, making them very difficult to bomb. The target of Operation Pike was the oil refineries concentrated in Baku.

I see, fixed in terms of oil fields vs. refineries.

The tonnage was taken from an obviously inaccurate webpage. Will correct that as well.

 

[Sean Mulligan]

Why does Britain and France suddenly decide to go to war with the Soviet Union when earlier in your timeline you have Chamberlain and Halifax be uncharacteristically defensive of Soviet actions? Why doesn't Stalin accept the Finnish surrneder like in otl? Stalin wouldn't want to have to permemently occupy Finland to keep the pro Soviet government in power.

 

[Cook]

Stalin would never approve of a declaration war on the Allies, even after a bombing of Baku.

Declared or not, Stalin would have fought the British if they’d bombed Baku. Most probably by fending forces south to seize the British oil fields of Iraq and Khuzestan and forcing the British out of the northern Arabian Gulf, closing the British air fields around Mosul and securing the Caucasus from further attack in the process.

 

[Julian]

Declared or not, Stalin would have fought the British if they’d bombed Baku. Most probably by fending forces south to seize the British oil fields of Iraq and Khuzestan and forcing the British out of the northern Arabian Gulf, closing the British air fields around Mosul and securing the Caucasus from further attack in the process.

No he wouldn't. Stalin is an absolute dictator who is extremely stubborn and controls the national media and security forces. He can suppress the news of the operation, or use it as propoganda and not act on it. Alternatively he can begin negotiations with Britain to try and pressure it into concessions in exchange for the Soviet Union not directly entering the war with military forces. Declaring war is never the first option and Stalin was a canny enough negotiator to tell when he had the advantage. Soviet foreign policy up to that point was to remain militarily uncommitted to either party, even if it by convenience favored Germany economically. While the bombing of Baku is a serious offense and grounds for war in most states the Soviet Union isn't most states, and Stalin is cautious enough not to play his hand before attempting to win at diplomacy first. At the very least he would discuss declaring war with Germany first and attempt to use that as a bargaining chip to gain military bases in Bulgaria, a larger sphere of influence in Romania (Only somewhat likely), and Turkey in the Soviet sphere of influence. Stalin wanted and asked for these things through Molotov at one time or another. Stalin will be especially wary of war because, with poor Soviet performance in the Winter War all too obvious, Timoshenko's reforms will have just gotten udnerway; this will leave the Red Army unable to launch more large scale offensives, something Stalin will either recognize or quickly be convinced of (One thing he understood clearly IOTL was that the Red Army was in poor condition).

 

[ryackov]

Stalin is a man who admitted to some of his subordinates that at any moment, when he turns a corner, one of them would have a gun and shoot him. That is what he is afraid of. He is afraid of looking weak.

Why does Britain and France suddenly decide to go to war with the Soviet Union when earlier in your timeline you have Chamberlain and Halifax be uncharacteristically defensive of Soviet actions? Why doesn't Stalin accept the Finnish surrneder like in otl? Stalin wouldn't want to have to permemently occupy Finland to keep the pro Soviet government in power.

That is actually based on some historical newspaper articles I've read.. You know, Chamberlain never quite made sense. Why did he go to war over Poland? He supported Germany before...
http://news.google.com/newspapers?id=yjRPAAAAIBAJ&sjid=PCEEAAAAIBAJ&pg=3477,5603190

 

[Julian]

Stalin is a man who admitted to some of his subordinates that at any moment, when he turns a corner, one of them would have a gun and shoot him. That is what he is afraid of. He is afraid of looking weak.

Please provide documentation on this "admission" by Stalin.He certainly feared plots against him, but that doesn't mean he constantly acted tough to keep himself safe; he just killed everyone that posed a major threat and cowed the rest, in his mind proving his strength to others and eliminating any who had wronged or might wrong him. Stalin will not look weak to anyone at this point. In 1940 he is a completely absolute dictator, even more so than Hitler. Even his closest confidents live in terror of him; nearly everyone in the nation does. His authority is total and his position has been more than secured since the purges. Stalin has no reason to worry about looking weak, and from what I've read never really feared his own subordinates except at the very begining of Barbarossa when he was at his most vulnerable; even then he quickly bounced back (He certainly didn't have a really major breakdown as some sources perport) and got down to business. Such a minor attack (In comparison to Barbarossa) won't turn him into a paranoid lunatic going on a crusade against the capitalist west; it'll make him review his options and attempt to capitalize (Teehee) off of the new situation without risking a maior war which he 1. Doesn't want and 2. Knows the Red Army can't fight.

 

[Cook]

No he wouldn't.

Stalin made a pact with Hitler so that he would not have to fight more than one capitalist nation at a time. Even after he was allied with Britain and America there were times when he feared they would betray him, ally with Hitler and attack the Soviet Union. If the British had attacked him in the south he’d have done everything in his capacity to secure the southern flank of the Soviet Union while he was still secure in the west.

The resources required to occupy Iran and invade Iraq would not have taxed the Red Army greatly; the British had very little forces in the region and wouldn’t have been able to move more into the area as quickly as the Soviets could. Stalin would have taken Mosul, Khuzestan and Kuwait and then negotiated with the British.

 

[Grey Wolf]

I cannot fathom the idea that Stalin would just shrug his shoulders if Britain purposefully bombed him! He already HAS an effective alliance with the Germans, so he can afford to react by declaring war - something which, ironically, would derail plans for Barbarossa because by actively entering the war as an ally, Soviet and German forces would be able to work even more closely together, and Hitler would probably eventually agree to let them to accede to the Axis (which Stalin and Molotov were looking for in 1940 as a sign of good faith)

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

 

[ryackov]

Julian: Whatever. You don't even know what butterflies have inflicted on the world. Maybe you should write your own TL, it sounds like your ideas will be very interesting.

August 1940

Germany invades Benelux on the 3rd. France expects a repeat of the Schlieffen plan and carries out the Dyle Plan in response. Unexpectedly, the Manstein Plan is carried out. German Army Group A, attacking at the underdefended Ardennes, punches through and panzer divisions attempt to encircle Allied armies in Belgium while Army Group B conducted a spoiling attack against allied positions in Belgium.

French morale nearly collapsed, there were no reserves available, Churchill had to reassure Reynaud over the phone, but one last attempt at defense was made. Several French divisions in Belgium and in Alsace were redirected to the flanks of the German attack just as the panzers were running out of supplies and were well beyond infantry support.

The resulting counterattack resulted in 25% tank losses for the German spearhead which was now being pushed back. In what can only be described as a form of mass bipolar disorder, overconfident French generals redirected more divisions from Belgium and Alsace towards the French counterassault.

While Belgium was far from undefended, Hitler ordered the reserves into action, demanding all of them to attack through Belgium and not to halt until they reach the Mediterranean. This insane gambit paid off. Allied forces in Flanders were surprised by the unexpected German assault. As the Germans advance forward, the French were becoming ambivalent about the war.

Meanwhile in the Middle and South East, British India is now threatened by the possibility of Soviet invasion (which hasn't materialized yet).The British now have to organize the planned mobilization of nearly a million men within a year and a half. With the possibility that Britain could be cut off from India if the Soviets seize the Suez and if the German u-boat campaign succeeds, a strong local armaments industry had to be created. For the first time in India's colonial history, there is significant industrial investment.

To improve Indian morale, families are to be alloted a minimal food allowance and the salt tax is to be repealed. This also reduces the impetus for an Indian independence movement.

The Soviet Union has begun the expansion of companies of draft animals and the construction of several rail lines that stop at the border of Persia.

September 1940

It is the 12th. A portion of the French army is encircled in Reims-Strasbourg. The Germans are marching through Paris. Inferior French tactics has lead to the destruction of numerous French tanks. Despite the initial French success, it appears France will fall. Reynaud's cabinet, despite promises of never signing a separate peace, want just that. Reynaud holds firm, and insists that France will continue fighting on, even from North Africa. He also demands the resignations of several defeatists in the cabinet. Petain and a few others resign, while other defeatists change their tone towards a more mute quality. The conservatives in France also approve of Reynaud more, despite or in spite of the failed bombing of Baku.

As part of expanded Nazi-Soviet cooperation, German engineers and machinery is sent into the Soviet Union, aiding towards the completion of the Third Five-Year Plan.

By the end of the month, the Reims-Strasbourg pocket surrenders.

Second Vienna Award to Hungary.

Peacetime draft begins in the US.

The Channel Islands are invaded.

October 1940

France is largely overrun. Evacuations begin from Bordeaux and Marseilles. By the 27th, France is completely under German occupation. It took eighty days since the beginning of the German invasion to subdue France. It had taken two months for Norway to fall. While no one remembers or want to remember the exact defense of France, it will be remembered as one of the longer ones.

Battle of France statistics:
-British: 105,000 casualties, 30,000 captured
-France: 450,000 casualties, 1,300,000 captured
-Germany: 220,000 casualties
-Belgium: 35,000 casualties
-Netherlands: 11,000 casualties

Britain prepares for defense against a German naval invasion. The Home Guard is established, and a series of land and beach defenses are prepared throughout Britain.

The IRA receives support from German spyrings.

 

[Julian]

I feel that Stalin would demand German concessions in Romania, Turkey, and Bulgaria in exchange for major Soviuet commitment to the war. IOTL he essentially wanted the same thing and pushed for it, but got nowhere. Here he has a major bargaining chip and Germany is even further behind schedule than IOTL, leaving the Balkans open to Soviet influence.

I cannot fathom the idea that Stalin would just shrug his shoulders if Britain purposefully bombed him! He already HAS an effective alliance with the Germans, so he can afford to react by declaring war - something which, ironically, would derail plans for Barbarossa because by actively entering the war as an ally, Soviet and German forces would be able to work even more closely together, and Hitler would probably eventually agree to let them to accede to the Axis (which Stalin and Molotov were looking for in 1940 as a sign of good faith)

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

Not shrug his shoulders so much as look for options other than launching an aggressive war immediately after the bombing. In any case, Barbarossa wouldn't be derailed in the slightest. Nazi Germany's main foreign policy goal is the desztruction of the Soviet Union. Duping it even further into an alliance won't change that fact. It will still attempt to invade as soon as its forces are properly assembled in their staging areas in Poland, East Prussia, and Romania.

Stalin made a pact with Hitler so that he would not have to fight more than one capitalist nation at a time. Even after he was allied with Britain and America there were times when he feared they would betray him, ally with Hitler and attack the Soviet Union. If the British had attacked him in the south he’d have done everything in his capacity to secure the southern flank of the Soviet Union while he was still secure in the west.

The resources required to occupy Iran and invade Iraq would not have taxed the Red Army greatly; the British had very little forces in the region and wouldn’t have been able to move more into the area as quickly as the Soviets could. Stalin would have taken Mosul, Khuzestan and Kuwait and then negotiated with the British.

I suppose that does make sense, the problem is that the Red Army is in no shape to launch a major invasion. It's literally right in the middle of restructuring and reformatting fter the Winter War.

 

[ryackov]

American Elections

October - November 1940

On the sixth of October, FDR has fallen out of bed, cutting his third-term run for office short. He had broken his hip. Nearly a week later death came by way of a pulmonary embolism. Fortunately he did not die after November, then the Republic would fall into a slight grey area. Unfortunately he died before November. The Democratic Party did not want to run Wallace for President, and even if they did, they would have to also select a new Vice President. It was a close nomination.

It would have be either President Garner or Farley. Farley's political clout would make him the first non-WASP President. Had he won the election. Or the nomination for that matter. Ballots had to be reprinted, in some poorer smaller counties Roosevelt's name was scratched off and Garner's name was written underneath.

Garner barely had time to campaign. It was no wonder that Wendell Wilkie would go on to be elected President in a very close election.

 

[Cook]

In any case, Barbarossa wouldn't be derailed in the slightest. Nazi Germany's main foreign policy goal is the desztruction of the Soviet Union...

Prior to the setback of the Battle of Britain, Hitler was talking of war with the Soviet Union in 1942 or 1943. The timing was advanced because he (wrongly) concluded that the British were holding out in the hope that the Soviet Union would come to their aid and that if he defeated the Russians quickly, the British would negotiate. He gambled that the Soviets would collapse so quickly the British wouldn’t have any opportunity to make use of the fact that Germany was fighting a two front war. Hitler had been vehemently opposed to fighting a two front war, seeing it as the reason Germany lost the First World War, but he thought the British were quiescent and the Russians weak so he gambled.

With the British fighting the Soviets there is no possibility of anyone making the mistake of assuming that they were waiting for Russia to rescue them; Hitler would not have rushed forward his plans for the Soviet Union.