An Orleans girl for Queen of England

Anne II would inherit her cousin's ministers and sense she's a foreigner with next to no knowledge of her new nation's laws, procedures and traditions she's likely to keep them on. As for specific ministers, it would be no doubt a mixture of the last Tory government under Queen Anne (sense they would be the ones who secured James III's accession) and the Jacobites from Saint-Germain and those who remained in the British isles.

How would discussions for the succession of Anne Marie d'Orléans begin? Presumably it has to start at the Court of St. James first for it to succeed and James III has to approve of the notion and put them down as his heirs in his will before his death. Bolingbroke would then have to send an envoy to Savoy to inform the new Queen of her new dominion and from there arrange for her and her son's transportation to Britain after James has passed. As well as attempt to control the disaster of James's sudden death and the war he's left them in.

Just how big would James III's funeral be? Oh that's right. Would Louisa Maria Stuart's remains be moved to Britain after her brother's ascension? Or would she remain in Paris? Personally, I believe that James and his court would want to see her buried in her native country after the joyous restoration of the Jacobite heir to his throne but would it happen is the question.

Sure the British army was very good but would mainly play a role alongside the French in Germany or the Spanish in Italy. Or maybe they'd join the Savoyard forces in North Italy. But chances are the war still ends the same as OTL, perhaps with some changes for Sardinia-Piedmont.

What changes could we see here for Sardinia-Piedmont? Is it possible for Britain to seize Sicily for the House of Savoy in this war or would it still go to Spain? Ownership of Sardinia AND Sicily might be a little too much for the European Powers-That-Be.

The real change will be the Austrian succession war. First, with a POD in the late 1710s we could just as easily see Karl VI produce a son that lives, thus derailing the entire conflict. Secondly, if the situation remains the same, then the changes could be in Prussia. Would Friedrich the Great still attack Austria if such an action strengthens the triple alliance or keep his father's allegiance to the Habsburgs and try to form a counter triple alliance with Vienna and St. Petersburg?

Now I'm not sure if the triple alliance would be able to partition the Habsburg Monarchy successfully or give the Wittelsbachs on the Imperial crown permanently but at the very least Maria Theresa is going to lose her periphery territories. The Southern Netherlands would either be annexed to France or be given to the OTL Duke of Parma (married to Louis XV's eldest daughter Madame Royale). Milan could end up conquered by Savoy, along with Parma. Silesia would either go to Prussia like OTL or remain in Austria depending on the actions of Friedrich. Other than that not sure.

However, I will say this: eventually relations between Britain and France will break down. The two simply had too many overlapping spheres of influence across the globe. At some point there would be a proverbial straw that breaks the camels back. Though when this would happen I can't guess.

Either option is interesting considering that the birth of a son might prevent the weakening of Austria. Though I wonder if in the second scenario Friedrich will remain with Austria and try to bolster the Austrians. That could lead to some interesting things in the Germanies. Especially since the Triple Alliance won't last longer than a few decades at the most. How good was the Austrian army? Could they benefit from Friederich the Great's attentions as well?

If Milan goes to Savoy by way of marriage earlier would Parma be the only Italian province won by during the war? Or would they demand another along with Parma? If Parma (and presumably Piacenza and Guastalla) goes to the House of Savoy what becomes of the OTL Duke of Parma, Infante Felipe? Would he still marry Madame Royale or would her father marry her elsewhere?

Oh, I'm not arguing against that. It's inevitable that relations will break down between them. The only question is when because both sides are going to want relations to remain stable for a while. As long as the family remains close they'll want their respective nations to remain cordial.

Could relations strain because of colonial interests or would it have to be caused by continental matters?

Would it be easier for Britain to retain relations with Spain or would Spain follow France?

Finally, remember that Sardinia-Piedmont, unlike Hanover, was a solid second-tier power during the 18th century. They were on par with the Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden and Portugal. Their army was top notch and their navy was nothing to sneeze at. So if a local war broke out in Italy, say between Genoa and Sardinia, then I doubt Britain would need to come to their aid.

Essentially Savoy can take care of itself as long as they don't have to fight any of the first tier powers on their own. Though a war between Genoa and Sardinia could potentially trigger one between France and Britain couldn't it?

One other thing, though I'm not to sure about it yet. In theory the Sovereign could use his or her private resources however they wanted. So Anne II or Charles III could use their income from the crown estate and the Duchies of Lancaster and Cornwall to help Savoy (ie pay salaries, improve the military, the infrastructure ex, ex.) without Parliamentary over-site. Sure it would be unpopular and potentially scandalous, but legally I think their kosher.

They would need to use this money on London or in the United Kingdom then. Considering how young the current dynasty is, in Britain anyway, they would definitely want to avoid being seen as unpopular or creating scandals. What could they use their money on in Britain?

Politically we'd see close Anglo-Spanish relations, due to both the French succession and Madrid's desire to restore their European empire. Considering James' reign would be quite short (1714-1717/18) there wouldn't be much chance for further changes in terms of foreign affairs, other than cooling relations towards Austria, the Netherlands, Portugal and France.

The House of Savoy will more than likely find it prudent to keep the Spanish happy especially since they are family. I suppose that Spanish marriages are out of the question until the the next generation at the very least. Unless that is Charles and his bride have a daughter soonish so that she could marry the Infante Carlos.

Relations with Portugal, Austria and France are probably going to warm during the current generation. I'm not entirely sure about where British relations with the Netherlands will head after the Savoyards ascend the throne. British relations with them will more than likely cool because of overlapping spheres of interest abroad but the Dutch won't have close family ties to buoy relations for the next couple of decades.

Although, OTL Italy was quite interested in Tunisia and was pretty pissed when France sniped it in 1881, so we could see a Savoyard attempted conquest of that region, no doubt backed up by the British in the name of ending piracy in the Mediterranean.

Would Savoy divert its focus from conquering Italy to taking Tunisia instead? Or only if the opportunity arises?

Maybe, maybe not. Remember that Catherine failed to produce an heir, which indirectly caused the Glorious revolution in the first place. Not sure if Anne's going to risk her only heir on a potentially barren match. Not saying a Portuguese match would be torpedoed but the Court is going to be weary. Also, as Jonas pointed out, Anne favored a French match with Charlotte Aglaé d'Orléans for Vittorio in OTL, so she could also favor it for Carlo here. Probably wouldn't happen but it would be seriously considered.

As to Milan, hard to say. It was hard to defend but was strategically valuable for control of Northern Italy. A marriage would imply Milan would be the Archduchess's dowry. That would be the only way for Vienna to justify the loss to themselves.

So we could potentially see Charlotte Aglaé d'Orléans suit being seriously considered along with the Infanta Francisca Josepha before Carlo ultimately weds Archduchess Maria Amalia of Austria either after or during the war. Bringing Milan with her as her dowry as well as affirming Britains ties to Austria. A Portuguese match could of course be tabled for later. The Savoyards would find Maria Amalia more attractive due to the dowry and the British would probably try to use this marriage to their own advantage with the Hapbsburgs.

Actually could we see the betrothal of the Archduchess and the new Prince of Wales being used as affirmation of Britain switching her allegiance during the war? If James dies late 1717 then Prince Charles could be betrothed by mid-to-late 1718 and wed (by proxy or otherwise) to Archduchess Maria Amalia later in the year or in the New Year.

However, if Genoa sides with Austria against the Triple alliance at any time then its independence is at an end: Corsica goes to France and mainland Genoa goes to Sardinia a century early.

How likely is it that Genoa will side against France in a future war with Austria? And wouldn't an Austrian marriage for Prince Charles create tensions within the Triple Alliance?

Long term yes, Sicily was worth much more than Sardinia but either would serve British purposes strategically.

Honestly though which island would Savoy prefer to have? I suppose the point is null since by the time Anne becomes Queen the matter will have been laid to rest but which one would they prefer themselves?

I wonder if Sicily/Sardinia being in PU with England will mean that the house of Savoy gets in on the colonial idea.

More than likely we'd see Savoy make some attempts to colonize bits of Tunisia if the opportunity arose. North Africa seems like the most likely route of colonization for Savoy.

This is super long. I'm so sorry.
 
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