An Invitation To The Austrians

WI Austria had been willing to separate itself from Hungary and become part of a Greater Germany? Aside from the implications of breaking up the Austria-Hungarian Empire, what would have been the impact on Germany's relations with Hungary? Would there have been an earlier World War One, for example?
 
Austria going from co-ruler of a major state to defacto Prussian vassal? I don't see it, really, unless the Hungarian revolt in '48 isn't crushed, but how to keep Russia from intervening?
 

Eurofed

Banned
Austria going from co-ruler of a major state to defacto Prussian vassal? I don't see it, really, unless the Hungarian revolt in '48 isn't crushed, but how to keep Russia from intervening?

Very true about Hungary. Russia can be easily paralyzed with several kinds of PoDs, ranging from a new Polish insurrection, or a Finnish one, a serf insurrection, or just the Tsar being crippled by infirmity, as in Aussie Guy's fine TL on this very fine PoD.

Also the Prussian King needs to get a leap of nationalist insight and realizing that it is the will of God that he unified the German people, and if this means he has to accept a crown "from the gutter", well, Providence works in mysterious ways. Conceivably, witnessing the collapse of the Habsburg monarchy may cause this.

As someone else argued on this very topic recently, the Hungarian rebels' military capacities were subpar, so in order to make the Habsburg empire collapse, you need some extra push besides the Russian not showing up. A good combination may be Hungary pulling out its regiments of Italy and Radetsky getting a stray bullet before Custoza. The Austrian army in Italy falls into disarray, Sardinia conquers Venetia, Trento, and Gorizia. The Austrian liberals rise up again in Vienna, Prague does too, the Magyar rebels seize control of their country, the Habsburg emperor has nowehere to turn but Croatian militias for support, and it can't suffice, with the regular army beaten and falling apart. Of of desperation, the Emperor abdicates.

The Prussian King accepts the crown of Germany from the Frankfurt Parliament and the liberal constitution, with the twin pressure of German liberal-nartionalists and Prussian might, and Austria fragmenting, all other German states quickly join. Hungary affirms its independence. Sardinia seizes Italian irredentist claims, with all the huge nationalist enthusiasm that this entails, all the other Italian princes quickly accept federal union with Sardinia or are toppled. Austrian liberals plead for union with Germany, some less hidebound Habsburg scion is found to become King of Austria within the German empire. Prussian troops enter Bohemia and "persuade" Czechs that they are Germans in denial.

France can't do nothing since it is paralyzed by its own political instability up to early 1849. Britain either is sympathetic to the German-Italian national unifications or only really cares that the new liberal states are willing ot be anti-Russian bulwarks, which they almost surely do. When Russia recovers from whatever paralyzed it, it is going to realize that the new order in Germany, Italy, and Hungary still sees proper monarchs at the helm, and it's not the Jacobin devil reborn, so it is reluctantly going to accept the fait accompli.
 
Austria going from co-ruler of a major state to defacto Prussian vassal? I don't see it, really, unless the Hungarian revolt in '48 isn't crushed, but how to keep Russia from intervening?

Quite right. Only if the empire is shattered will Austria become part of Greater Germany -- unless of course they are the dominate state in the empire, that is.

Russia can be kept busy in a number of places. In my Course of Human Events TL, the Tsars troops are too busy in Poland, the Caucasuses and the Danubian Principlaities to intervene.

Implications depend on many things, not only Hungary proper but what's going on in Czech, Slovak and Galician lands as well.
 
Based on the way the question is worded, I would push the PoD back to "Ferdinand I" allowing his realms be divided (by Ferdinand I, I mean his Regency Council). This can be easily achieved by some back hand dealing spearheaded by Archduchess Sophie if at some point it is made clear by the Frankfurt Parliament that they intend to offer her eldest son the German Crown (again easily achieved by back room deals in Frankfurt seeing as the early days of the Parliament were dominated by the Austrians). The ancient Hereditary Habsburg Lands are thus split in 4, Austria & Bohemia lead the way toward German unification, Hungary gains the independence that her nobles have long coveted, Venetia-Lombardy becomes an effective alternative to a Savoy unified Italy, and Galicia becomes the rallying point for Polish Nationalists. And what luck, Franz Karl and Sophie had 4 sons, so each can be placed on a throne maintaining the Habsburg Hegemony. Ferdinand Maximilian would likely be given the Hungarian Throne (though personally I prefer he rule over his family's Italian possessions, it's the romantic in me), Karl Ludwig would likely take the Iron Crown with a Regency Council until he reaches majority (he I prefer on the Hungarian Throne as a minor would likely be more easily accepted by the Hungarians since they could control the Regency Council), Ludwig Viktor becomes King of Galicia in Krakow, and of course Franz Joseph becomes Franz III of Germany (because of course any Habsburg would continue the use of HR Imperial numbering :p).
 

Eurofed

Banned
Based on the way the question is worded, I would push the PoD back to "Ferdinand I" allowing his realms be divided (by Ferdinand I, I mean his Regency Council). This can be easily achieved by some back hand dealing spearheaded by Archduchess Sophie if at some point it is made clear by the Frankfurt Parliament that they intend to offer her eldest son the German Crown (again easily achieved by back room deals in Frankfurt seeing as the early days of the Parliament were dominated by the Austrians). The ancient Hereditary Habsburg Lands are thus split in 4, Austria & Bohemia lead the way toward German unification, Hungary gains the independence that her nobles have long coveted, Venetia-Lombardy becomes an effective alternative to a Savoy unified Italy, and Galicia becomes the rallying point for Polish Nationalists. And what luck, Franz Karl and Sophie had 4 sons, so each can be placed on a throne maintaining the Habsburg Hegemony. Ferdinand Maximilian would likely be given the Hungarian Throne (though personally I prefer he rule over his family's Italian possessions, it's the romantic in me), Karl Ludwig would likely take the Iron Crown with a Regency Council until he reaches majority (he I prefer on the Hungarian Throne as a minor would likely be more easily accepted by the Hungarians since they could control the Regency Council), Ludwig Viktor becomes King of Galicia in Krakow, and of course Franz Joseph becomes Franz III of Germany (because of course any Habsburg would continue the use of HR Imperial numbering :p).

Very cool. :D:cool: This is another quite interesting scenario that would produce a very stable Habsburg Triple Alliance of unified nation-states in the core of Europe in 1848. Of course, France would be terrified, but it would be paralyzed by revolution during the critical formation stage. Britain shall be quite supportive as long as the new bloc is willing to contain Russia in the Balkans. Russia would be initially neutral. In the long run, it would most likely get alienated if (when) the Habsburg bloc becomes hostile to its unchecked expansion in the Balkans, and if (when) Krakow becomes a stronghold for Polish irredentism.

This would be a good alternative Habsburg-led pathway to create the Grossdeutchsland-Italy-Hungary bloc in 1848. Heck, if only the 1848 Habsburg had got a leader so far-seeing as to do this. They would have perfectly fulfilled their historical mission of unifying Germany and Italy instead of failing horribly and becoming its worst stumbling block like OTL.

If the Habsburg block were to pick an idea from the Zollverein and expand their familiy pact to a military alliance, customs union and common currency, we'd have the EU a century earlier. This PoD quite begs for a TL.
 
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Very cool. :D:cool: This is another quite interesting scenario that would produce a very stable Habsburg Triple Alliance of unified nation-states in the core of Europe in 1848. Of course, France would be terrified, but it would be paralyzed by revolution during the critical formation stage. Britain shall be quite supportive as long as the new bloc is willing to contain Russia in the Balkans. Russia would be initially neutral. In the long run, it would most likely get alienated if (when) the Habsburg bloc becomes hostile to its unchecked expansion in the Balkans, and if (when) Krakow becomes a stronghold for Polish irredentism.

This would be a good alternative Habsburg-led pathway to create the Grossdeutchsland-Italy-Hungary bloc in 1848. Heck, if only the 1848 Habsburg had got a leader so far-seeing as to do this. They would have perfectly fulfilled their historical mission of unifying Germany and Italy instead of failing horribly and becoming its worst stumbling block like OTL.

If the Habsburg block were to pick an idea from the Zollverein and expand their familiy pact to a military alliance, customs union and common currency, we'd have the EU a century earlier. This PoD quite begs for a TL.
It an idea I've been tossing around for a while now. I think I'd like to push the PoD back to Franz Karl not being apathetic and useless, instead becoming somewhat of a German Nationalist and a more suitable counterpart to his wife. I want to finish All Hail Germania and possibly a second version of Austria: Never Forget Thy Past, and at some point I'd like to work on a TL that doesn't focus on securing Habsburg Primacy.

I think a military alliance and customs and currency union could easily be established, probably from the outset. The Rothschilds could be very instrumental in the latter. The only conflict I can see arising early on is Croatia and the Dalmatian Coast. The Croatians were very loyal Habsburg supporters and I can't see them getting shafted by the Imperial Family, but at the same time the Hungarian Nobility would want all of the historic Apostolic Kingdom.
 
It an idea I've been tossing around for a while now. I think I'd like to push the PoD back to Franz Karl not being apathetic and useless, instead becoming somewhat of a German Nationalist and a more suitable counterpart to his wife. I want to finish All Hail Germania and possibly a second version of Austria: Never Forget Thy Past, and at some point I'd like to work on a TL that doesn't focus on securing Habsburg Primacy.

I think a military alliance and customs and currency union could easily be established, probably from the outset. The Rothschilds could be very instrumental in the latter. The only conflict I can see arising early on is Croatia and the Dalmatian Coast. The Croatians were very loyal Habsburg supporters and I can't see them getting shafted by the Imperial Family, but at the same time the Hungarian Nobility would want all of the historic Apostolic Kingdom.

personal union work b/n Hungary and Croatia...?
 
The Hungarian Nobility wasn't terribly fond of the Croats and vice versa, however "Croatia Proper" (which at this point didn't include the Dalmatian Coast) was part of the Apostolic Kingdom of Hungary and was its only connection to a the Mediterranean. If Croatia remains part of the Hungary, the Army that was already assembled by Ban of Croatia to fight the Hungarians on behalf on the Emperor effectively becomes something akin to Garibaldi's Redshirts, an effective military force unified by a desire for nationhood. The Hungarian nobility was not willing to give a Kingdom of Croatia the autonomy that they sought (and got IOTL after the Ausgleich). However if the Habsburgs establish a separate Kingdom of Croatia under a cadet branch or in personal union with Germany, the Hungarians will be much less inclined to deal with them. Croatia represents a good chunk of independent Hungary's wealth and possible industry. It's a bit of a catch twenty-two.
 

Eurofed

Banned
The Hungarian Nobility wasn't terribly fond of the Croats and vice versa, however "Croatia Proper" (which at this point didn't include the Dalmatian Coast) was part of the Apostolic Kingdom of Hungary and was its only connection to a the Mediterranean. If Croatia remains part of the Hungary, the Army that was already assembled by Ban of Croatia to fight the Hungarians on behalf on the Emperor effectively becomes something akin to Garibaldi's Redshirts, an effective military force unified by a desire for nationhood. The Hungarian nobility was not willing to give a Kingdom of Croatia the autonomy that they sought (and got IOTL after the Ausgleich). However if the Habsburgs establish a separate Kingdom of Croatia under a cadet branch or in personal union with Germany, the Hungarians will be much less inclined to deal with them. Croatia represents a good chunk of independent Hungary's wealth and possible industry. It's a bit of a catch twenty-two.

Not to mention that there shall be another vociferous claimant for Dalmatia, namely Italy. Now, in the division of Cisleithania and the settlement of Croatia, I see the Magyar nobilty reluctantly agreeing to give Croatia its autonomy rather then lose it, as they did IOTL after the Ausgleich. Italy would get Trento (but not South Tyrol, that goes to Germany), Gorizia-Gradisca, and Istria, while Hungary-Croatia gets Dalmatia. Germany gets Slovenia. It is a compromise that leaves no party entirely satisfied but neither really shafted, the foundation of a working peace. Krakow would get Galicia, of course, but I cannot tell whether it or Hungary would get Bukovina.

Hmm, this is going to get the hopes of the Poles really up, and German-Italian-Magyar liberal nationalists were generally sympathetic to the Polish cause in 1848 (whereas German ones would brook no nonsense about Czech nationalism). A confrontation between Britain and Russia is scheduled to happen, the Habsburg bloc could easily join it and liberate Poland. On the other hand, seeing the might of the Habsburg bloc, Napoleon III could be tempted to switch sides and side with Russia.
 
Krakow would get Galicia, of course, but I cannot tell whether it or Hungary would get Bukovina. Hmm, this is going to get the hopes of the Poles really up, and German-Italian-Magyar liberal nationalists were generally sympathetic to the Polish cause in 1848.

But would the Russians accept Krakow getting Galicia instead of themselves?

I like your idea of partitioning Austria and getting an independent rump-Poland. If Germany then accepts partitioning of the Posen province - or at least a referendum - you could get a Polish rump state consisting of Galicia and eastern Posen, a potentially loyal ally to Germany and sworn enemy of Russia.
 

Eurofed

Banned
But would the Russians accept Krakow getting Galicia instead of themselves?

Good point. I guess it depends whether this TL occurs simpy because the Habsburg elite has the leap of insight PoD that ImperialVienna masterfully devised, or we get a second PoD that temporarily paralyzes Russia that I mentioned upthread (assuming it is not a rebellion in Poland, which would make them active and paranoid about such a rump). If the latter, the Habsburg can set up their Krakow-Galicia rump Poland, and after Russia recovers, it shall be forced to live with the fact. If the former, it may well be that Russia claims Krakow and Galicia as its slice of flesh for going along with the Habsburg plan. Then we would get the Habsburg bloc shunk down to Germany, Hungary, and italy, and Poland would have to wait for the *Crimean War or *WWI to get liberated.

OTOH, there is a critical difference in this unification scenario: everything is happening peacefully, on the leadership of the proper authorities getting a world-changing epiphany. If the Habsburg decide to divide their heritage, and the German and Italian states to accept federal union with them, it is not the other powers' business to interfere. Russia can certainly claim Krakow and Galicia as a balance of power compensation, but stricly speaking, it has no legal claim to it. France, the only power that has a real stake about stopping a mega-Habsburg bloc on its borders, is paralyzed by revolution up to early 1849. Britain is neutral or sympathetic to a liberal Germany, Italy, and Hungary (and definitely sympathetic if they turn anti-Russian). If the Tsar chooses to press the issue to the point of war, he would find isolated against a liberal Triple Alliance, with Poland up in arms again, and Britain at best an hostile neutral. In such a fight, I see Russia getting an epic smackdown, even more so if Britain decides this the right moment to declaw the bear.

I like your idea of partitioning Austria and getting an independent rump-Poland. If Germany then accepts partitioning of the Posen province - or at least a referendum - you could get a Polish rump state consisting of Galicia and eastern Posen, a potentially loyal ally to Germany and sworn enemy of Russia.

Hmm, given that a sizable German minority existed in Posen, I'm rather skeptical sure that German liberal-nationalists would accept putting them under Polish rule. They would surely accept giving Posen a remarkable degree of autonomy, and perhaps a division of the province, but not giving the whole of it away. However, I notice you talk of a partition. Yes, I think that this could be done and could be a valid compromise to settle future German-Polish relations on a good track.

Of course, such a a rump Krakow-Galicia-eastern Posen Poland would make the Poles deliriously happy (they now have their "Piedmont" or "Prussia", with a set of powerful backers), but the Russians mad. Germany and Hungary are unloading their share of Poles to an independent rump Poland that, given its odd size, only really makes sense as the irredentist nucleus for the Russian lion's share. I can really see the Tsar declaring war on this.

But as I said above, this quickly turns into the Habsburg liberal crusade against Russia, Poland explodes, Britain is buying popcorn and sending money to the liberals, if not thinking to lend an hand. France is mired in revolution and would have political trouble fighting to defend the Tsar anyway (not to mention that Britain could easily intervene against a Napoleonic-Tsarist alliance). Germany and Sweden are currently at odds about the Schleswig-Holstein issue, but quite possibly Sweden could become interested about making a compromise, perhaps with Denmark keeping northern Schleswig, and joining efforts to liberate Finland and the Baltic...

Even if a war doesn't happen now, the relationship between the Habsburg bloc and Russia shall reach polar temperatures, with Poland a nationalist hotbed worse than preunitary Italy, which really spells trouble for Russia whenever Britain or its proxy Japan decides to get aggressive. France shall be caught in a geopolitical dilemma, between conceding hegemony of the continent to the Habsburg bloc without a fight, or a kamikaze attack on it, with backward Russia as its only ally, which promises a smackdown even worse than 1870.
 
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Not to mention that there shall be another vociferous claimant for Dalmatia, namely Italy. Now, in the division of Cisleithania and the settlement of Croatia, I see the Magyar nobilty reluctantly agreeing to give Croatia its autonomy rather then lose it, as they did IOTL after the Ausgleich. Italy would get Trento (but not South Tyrol, that goes to Germany), Gorizia-Gradisca, and Istria, while Hungary-Croatia gets Dalmatia. Germany gets Slovenia. It is a compromise that leaves no party entirely satisfied but neither really shafted, the foundation of a working peace. Krakow would get Galicia, of course, but I cannot tell whether it or Hungary would get Bukovina.
I think you're making divisions that don't yet exist to be divided. Italy isn't going to come into existence for sometime, for the time being Venezia-Lombardy is just going to have to compete with Piedmont-Sardinia, until an alternate Kingdom of Italy can be formed. It would probably be organized to look more like the 2nd Reich of OTL, with Venezia-Lombardy as an Italian equivalent to Prussia. Ferdinand Maximilian can't very well go unseating other Habsburg Princes. Trento was part of Tyrol as it had been for the past several centuries, it's going to become part of Germany, the Habsburgs have no reason to all of a sudden decide they want to make divisions that realistically weren't created until the end of WWI. Gorizia-Gradisca (which has far more Slovenes at this point then Italians) & Solvenia don't exist either, they're just part of Austria Proper and for all intents and purposes are culturally "Austrian". Istria is a little more thorny, it has a large Croatian population, one that probably out numbers Italians in 1848 (I can't find statistics for the period, but the ones that I can seem to point that way?). It will either become part of Croatia with the Dalmatians or Germany will retain it for strategic purposes, depending really on the specific order of events. I think Galicia would get Bukovina, but honestly it's such a cluster fuck of ethnicities, everyone up to Britain probably could have some minor claim to it.

The thing we have to remember with my proposal is that while the Habsburgs are giving independence to what we view as "Nation-States"(or countries that would go on to form Nation-States), they wouldn't have (other then eventually Germany). They were just dividing they ancient hereditary realms along the territorial claims that had been established for centuries. While they're appeasing Hungarian and Italian Nationalists, they are not the Habsburgs' motivating factor.
 

Eurofed

Banned
Italy isn't going to come into existence for sometime, for the time being Venezia-Lombardy is just going to have to compete with Piedmont-Sardinia, until an alternate Kingdom of Italy can be formed. It would probably be organized to look more like the 2nd Reich of OTL, with Venezia-Lombardy as an Italian equivalent to Prussia.

That's exactly what I was thinking of, and believe me, the pressure on the other Italian states to join it shall very soon become irresistible. The Italians were starved for anyone to unite them.

Ferdinand Maximilian can't very well go unseating other Habsburg Princes.

No, he won't. But in a few months, those princes shall get the choice of joining the Italian Federation or getting revolution.

Trento was part of Tyrol as it had been for the past several centuries, it's going to become part of Germany, the Habsburgs have no reason to all of a sudden decide they want to make divisions that realistically weren't created until the end of WWI.

Someone is massively underestimating the amount of Italian nationalism in Trento in the 19th century. If Italy looks like it's forming Trento shall nbe up in arms to join it overnight. Believe me, Germany shall very quick decide to hand purely-Italian Trento to Italy, to get itself rid of the irredentist noise.

Gorizia-Gradisca (which has far more Slovenes at this point then Italians) & Solvenia don't exist either, they're just part of Austria Proper and for all intents and purposes are culturally "Austrian".

Italians shall clamor for it, Germany has no real use for it, and I daresay that Italians shall carry rather more weight in the totem pole of the Habsburg bloc, than Slovenes.

Istria is a little more thorny, it has a large Croatian population, one that probably out numbers Italians in 1848 (I can't find statistics for the period, but the ones that I can seem to point that way?). It will either become part of Croatia with the Dalmatians or Germany will retain it for strategic purposes, depending really on the specific order of events.

Perhaps you may be right about Trieste and its economic value, and eastern Istria was majority Croat, but western Istria was majority Italian and of no real value to Hungary or Germany. Moreover, with Hungary and Italy in a customs league, Germany doesn't really need Trieste, and it was overwhelmingly Italian.

I think Galicia would get Bukovina, but honestly it's such a cluster fuck of ethnicities, everyone up to Britain probably could have some minor claim to it.

OK.

The thing we have to remember with my proposal is that while the Habsburgs are giving independence to what we view as "Nation-States"(or countries that would go on to form Nation-States), they wouldn't have (other then eventually Germany). They were just dividing they ancient hereditary realms along the territorial claims that had been established for centuries. While they're appeasing Hungarian and Italian Nationalists, they are not the Habsburgs' motivating factor.

But their motivating factor on doing this is that they had the epiphany that by working with and appeasing German, Italian, and Hungarian liberal nationalists, they have found a way to fulfill their family's imperial mission of uniting Germany and Italy under their rule (without spilling any blood), something that goes as back as Maximilian and Charles, if not Rudolf. If they can see the necessity of this, certainly they can see the necessity of re-arranging those centuries-old borders, in most cases based on feudal inertia and little more, to comply with nationalist sensibilities.
 
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