An Interrupted Journey

... I'm still sorting through Malaya and the Philippines ... You're getting warm on Malaya ... however, I'm wondering if our pal Douglas could actually find any sort of advantage in a few more hours notice ...

If his idiot Chief of Staff lets Brereton talk to him they just might. Seriously, I can't stand Dugout Doug but I wouldn't mind seeing him do a little better in December 1941 for a change if for no other reason than making him look even worse is a pretty common thread in a lot of ATLs.
 
... okay ... I'm getting ready to post up a few things here ...

man, this is getting squirrely ... here's what I'm thinking ...

aftermath of Pearl Harbour ...
a) Kimmel and Short need to go ... Kimmel was not the sort to lead the navy at that time, he's not balanced enough in his thinking. He's not really a bad sort, just that he's in over his head. Short in turn is rather too taken up with inter service rivalry issues, along with the fact that he never wanted to be there in the first place. My own bias comes into play a bit here ... I always felt that Kimmel had been pooped on a bit too much, while Short should have been flushed twice with a rather more concise wiping.

However, in this situation it will be harder, if not impossible to play them as the scapegoats they were historically. So while both will be gone, they will be re-posted elsewhere.

b) Wake Island: Wake should hold ... at least for the time being ... but it will be a drain on both sides as the situation will be something neither side realistically contemplated.

c) USN Carrier operations:
While the idea of raiding may have some backing, there will be enough usage of the carriers in supporting outlying bases to move away from the basic raiding strategy.
I'm partial to this line of thinking as it will maybe not encourage the Japanese to heavily fortify their own outlying territorial expansions. The example of this was how they went to town on fortifying Tarawa after the raids by the American Marine Raiders.
It might have been better if a force had been sent after Makin and Tarawa a bit later than historical, but in strength to stay.
... Just something to ponder. The same sort of thinking might have made a difference at places such as Ocean Island, Nauru and other points in that area.
d) New Britain and New Ireland:
Okay, We now have the Pensacola Convoy turning up in Australia with the Canadian C Force in tow. C Force is not a real big expansion of forces, but when combined with the heavy units of the US army in the convoy (mainly artillery), and the possibility of adding a couple more Australian battalions, and maybe even a New Zealander or two, you are well on your way to an interim divisional size force that could in theory be a reasonable blocking force in the New Britain area.
No, it wouldn't be pretty, nor might it be monstrously effective. However, it might lead into something of a much grander impact ... think about a philosophy along the lines of the First Special Service Force ... with the added benefit of our Aussie and Kiwi Pals ....

Now again, the old argument comes up regarding the shortage of tanks in planes in the Imperial Forces in the Pacific, due to thousands of each being sent to Uncle Joe. A lot of those planes and tanks came from Canadian factories. Here again, thee weren't maybe the best models, but they sure as hell were better than nothing.

If Canadians are fighting more successfully in the South Pacific than they did in Hong Kong, might not there be a push from the Canadian Government to funnel more equipment that way? Mackenzie King was recognized for trying to keep Canadian forces from being swallowed up by the British military ... operations in the Pacific just might play into his mindset ... possibly a division or two moved that way, along with RCAF squadrons ... maybe a few tribals and MTB's ... okay , yes, I'm getting carried away here ...

... now to the rest of the war in the Pacific ...

a) Hong Kong falls ... no surprise
b) light forces seize Guam and points in the Gilberts
c) Sarawak and Borneo ... nothing much can be done there, and the Japanese wrap up this region.

The two point where things get interesting are the Philippines and Malaya.
i) The Philippines:
I really wonder that MacAurthur and his court will still botch things up.
.... sorry, I'm rather in the Anti-Doug camp ... Yes, I would like to see things go somewhat better there for the sake of my Pinoy pals, however I'm wondering if it might be better centered on holding out in the south , Mindanao and environs ... MacArthur needs to have something done to him ... and Skinny Wainwright needs his fifth star when it's all over.... just sayin'

ii) Malaya :
Okay, now this will be an ugly process ... it might be possible to hold, however it's a long shot. The Brits need to get at it quicker, maybe some sort of positive result early that shows they aren't total failures. Bleed the Japanese better and withdraw in a more orderly manner to a defensive line far enough north to protect the Straights Colony area and needed water supplies ... among other things ... think Tobruk writ large (The First Tobruk!!!)

The other point is being smart enough to realize that for Singapore and company to survive, Sumatra must be kept secure as well. Everything east of there will be nigh on impossible to hold, however with the concentration of allied forces into Sumatra it might be possible. One nice point regarding Sumatra was that its populace had a rather more likelihood of being more supportive of the allied cause as well due to the much larger ethnic Malay populace. The trick again would be getting Wavell and Company to get their thought processes wrapped around this concept.

... and then there's Burma .... do something about the Sttang Bridge Fiasco, and there might be a chance of holding the Japanese early ...

Basically speaking, the Japanese advance will go on without the Kido Butai in a reasonably successful manner. While there will be some cancellations and set backs, I'm thinking they will still gain pretty good result. ...

While the Japanese are short of big carriers, the only hope the allies have in countering them is through Singapore ... The USN carriers could probe from the east and south, but they don't have the fleet train to do more than anchor the flanks.

In theory, the Commonwealth might be able to counter the Japanese better if the can hold Burma/Malaya/ Sumatra, but this will take a lot of thought ... and a level of command intellect that would have to be found elsewhere.

... A lot of this stuff and more is bouncing around my noggin at this point ... Pearl is getting cleaned up and Wake will be bolstered shortly ... then I'll see what might get churned out next ... lol ... this is going to be interesting ...
 
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