An Inspiration for History - McKinley Lives!

Great TL!

A few comments which I hope will be helpful (God knows I dearly wanted such comments for my TL).

In 1907:
"Russo-Japanese War The Treaty of Vladivostok, officially ending the Russo-Japanese War, is signed by both of its participants. The treaty assigns all of Manchuria, Korea, and Sakhalin Island to the Russians. The Japanese, in no position to protest the results of the treaty, turn inwardly."

Hmm..seems to be giving a bit much to the ones who militarily lost the area. The Russians would keep all of Sakhalin (which they had to begin with) and would probably pressure the Japanese to give up Manchuria and Korea in the British-mediated negotiations. The Japanese of course wouldn't really want to budge having actually won the areas but with an economy that's sinking fast they know that if the Russians can somehow renew the war then they might lose everything. I see more of a compromise agreement. Korea is probably returned to Chinese suzreignty officially. I could see the Japanese offering two deals:

1) Korea is split along the 38th parallel (as the Japanese had originally suggested to the Russians back in the late 1800s) with Russian influence in the north and Japanese in the south. Manchuria remains Chinese but Russia's special interests in the area are recognized. Port Arthur is retained by Japan and Japan's sphere only extends over the southern tip of the Liaodong Peninsula. Russian influence in the rest of Manchuria. Or perhaps Port Arthur goes back to the Russians and the town of Liaodong itself (and its port) goes to Japan.

2) Korea remains under total Japanese protection but under Chinese suzreignty officially, while Manchuria is split into Russian and Japanese spheres with the Russian sphere encompassing the Chinese eastern railway branch of the Trans-Siberian railway (the branch that goes through Mukden and then on to Vladivostock) and everything north of it, while the Japanese sphere includes everything south of it. The Japanese may throw in Port Arthur (or maybe Liaodong's port) to try to get the Russians to agree.


I am not sure which one the Russians would agree to (apart from their demand for everything or else war is renewed), maybe the other posters can throw in their two bits on the idea. Also keep in mind that the British were allied (alliance of convenience of course) to Japanese so they would probably not wish to take away everything from the Japanese.


Either way the outcome could actually be played as a victory of sorts for both sides (the Russians will probably want Port Arthur and some say in Korea to even attempt to call it a victory). The Japanese will probably consider it a defeat unless they get everything. In no case would Korea and Manchuria be assigned to Russia or Japan since both areas were officially Chinese. All that would happen is that their protection would be assigned to either power and either power's exclusive interests in those areas would be recognized.


Hmmm...with Japan and America at odds might it be possible that we will have a Japanese-American war involving the Philippines and Guam in the future (provided Japan gets back on her feet)?

"Hearst’s diplomats stike a deal with the Colombian government, paying a lump sum of $30 million for a swath of land twenty miles wide through the Panamanian isthmus. The region of Colombia north of the Canal Zone becomes the independent Republic of Panama while the southern region stays a part of Colombia. [6]"

Not going to happen. The US could get the Canal Zone you stated (even the 20 mile-wide one, although the original one was only supposed to be 10 miles wide (5 miles on either side of the Canal)). But the Colombian government in OTL initially balked at the original deal, if I remember rightly, because not enough money was offered and they didn't quite like the idea of US sovereignty over a strip of land cutting across their territory and cutting their country in two. I believe the Colombian lower house had approved the original deal but the Senate said "when hell freezes". So the deal you give where an independent Republic of Panama is set up from Colombian territory with no foreign conquest and for only US$30 million seems unlikely. What is more likely is that the Colombians are going to try to squeeze the Americans for as much control and money they can get and in the end the US will get its Canal Zone, but the isthmus on both sides will remain Colombian (though the area to the north will probably experience frequent rebellion) and the US will not have all the rights it got in OTL for the Canal Zone. So persons born in the zone will probably either be dual US and Colombian citizens (more likely this option) or solely Colombian (unless born to at least one American parent) and US law will prevail, but Colombian security forces and private citizens will have the right to free transit across the zone (so the Colombian army can deal with those pesky Panamian rebels north of the zone). The US would of course be given total freedom to protect the canal and its zone in any way it saw fit (unlimited basing rights) and would operate the Canal (though the Colombians may wish to get some gratuities/royalties in the form of a fixed percentage of revenue from the canal operations).
 
Sean, thanks for the comments!

Sean Swaby said:
Hmm..seems to be giving a bit much to the ones who militarily lost the area.

Argh. I'm in a jam and don't really know what to do. Earlier a comment suggested that I had given them too little, so I expanded their acquistion. However, what you say would happen is what I originally thought and I think I'm going to change it to read somewhere along the lines with whatt you say here.

As for Colombia, again, great comments. I think you're right, again. I'm embarassed to say that I never really gave this much thought and would never have come up with the detailed arrangement you presented. I'll change this, too. Thank you.
 
No no no, Korea is INDEPENDENT ! It sinks under Japanese sovereignty as a result of the Russo-Japanese War but it lost ALL ties to China. Hell, it has even undergone its own national revival in this interim period, we don't hear about it because after 1905 Japan simply increased its presence, its pressure and eventually forced out the monarchy. But it is independent, it has a new name, a new dynastic name, a new regnal name for the king, it has adopted Korean everything rather than Chinese and it has declared itself an empire so as to balance out China and Japan. There is absolutely NO WAY its going back to Chinese suzerainty. In a large part the Russo-Japanese War was about who would be dominant in Korea - Russia or Japan. If neither, then you get the Europeans involved - Britain, France, Germany etc, not as direct military intervention but as protectors, exploiters

So, if your ATL leaves both Russia and Japan too weak to press a claim over Korea, then the above is what you get

Grey Wolf
 
No no no, Korea is INDEPENDENT ! It sinks under Japanese sovereignty as a result of the Russo-Japanese War but it lost ALL ties to China. Hell, it has even undergone its own national revival in this interim period, we don't hear about it because after 1905 Japan simply increased its presence, its pressure and eventually forced out the monarchy. But it is independent, it has a new name, a new dynastic name, a new regnal name for the king, it has adopted Korean everything rather than Chinese and it has declared itself an empire so as to balance out China and Japan. There is absolutely NO WAY its going back to Chinese suzerainty. In a large part the Russo-Japanese War was about who would be dominant in Korea - Russia or Japan. If neither, then you get the Europeans involved - Britain, France, Germany etc, not as direct military intervention but as protectors, exploiters

So, if your ATL leaves both Russia and Japan too weak to press a claim over Korea, then the above is what you get

Oh yeah, 1895 or 1894 wasn't it? My bad. Yeah Korea is independent by now, I thought they were still under nominal Chinese suzreignty. Anyway, everything else I posted still stands.
 
Oh and my other error was referring to Mukden when I meant Harbin:

2) Korea remains under total Japanese protection but under Chinese suzreignty officially, while Manchuria is split into Russian and Japanese spheres with the Russian sphere encompassing the Chinese eastern railway branch of the Trans-Siberian railway (the branch that goes through Mukden and then on to Vladivostock) and everything north of it, while the Japanese sphere includes everything south of it. The Japanese may throw in Port Arthur (or maybe Liaodong's port) to try to get the Russians to agree.

sorry bout that.
 

Straha

Banned
DAMN YOUUUUUUUUUUU!! seriously i'm tired of TLS which diverge in the spanish-american war leaving cuba independent. Why not give puerto rico indepence and let America have Cuba?
 
DAMN YOUUUUUUUUUUU!! seriously i'm tired of TLS which diverge in the spanish-american war leaving cuba independent. Why not give puerto rico indepence and let America have Cuba?

Because the TL diverges after the Spanish-American war, maybe?
 
Straha said:
nothing says Mckinley would have let cuba go


Nothing except the fact that Reilly's POD is in 1901, by which time the Spanish-American war had already ended in 1898 and the Treaty of Paris of 1899 (which gave the US Puerto Rico and Guam and [for a price/steal] the Philippines only and which in effect recognized Cuban independence pending an end to US occupation) had been signed and the ink long dried. Also by 1901 the Teller Amendment (1898) to the US declaration of war on Spain in 1898 had closed any legal loophole by which the US could annex Cuba. Look it up and you will see the US had to give Cuba independence. So unless Beck's TL is going to quickly have a President who is above the law and then impeached, Cuba will go independent. Of course the US continued to occupy Cuba until 1909 and the Cuba was a virtual US colony til 1933 (and a semi-colony til 1959). There were pro-annexationist Cubans (one was even Cuban President), so there is plenty of time for Cuba to become a US territory (though I doubt it would without a LOT of trouble on the island).
If McKinley was so keen to keep Cuba he would have tried to stop the Teller Amendment in any way he could. But if he was as expansionist as you say, then he would probably force a second "Platt Amendment" on Cuba whereby Cuba would be forced to recognize the US claim to the Isle of Pines, instead of leaving its status undetermined upon Cuban independence (as they did in OTL). So in the Permanent Treaty signed in 1902 between Cuba and the US, I would expect the Platt Amendment as in OTL plus recognition of US sovereignty over the Isle of Pines (now known as Isla de Juventad/Isle of Youth).
 
Straha said:
DAMN YOUUUUUUUUUUU!! seriously i'm tired of TLS which diverge in the spanish-american war leaving cuba independent. Why not give puerto rico indepence and let America have Cuba?

Umm....yeah, this doesn't make much sense.

1) This TL doesn't diverge in the Spanish-American War.

2) The US had already passed the Platt Amendment, guaranteeing Cuban independence.

3) The US had already passed the Foraker Law (a.k.a. the Organic Act of 1900) establishing a civil government on "Porto Rico" and effectively creating the first United States unincorporated territory.

4) The first U.S. appointed civil governor, Charles H. Allen, of the island under the Foraker Law was inaugurated on May 1, 1900.

Other than those four details....thanks for the comments.
 
Straha said:
nothing says Mckinley would have let cuba go

Yeah...again, Congress signed the Platt Amendment guaranteeing Cuban independence in March of 1901, six months BEFORE the POD. This is not to mention that fact that the next President, William Randolph Hearst, disliked Latinos in general and Mexicans in particular, and would not have wanted an all-Latino state in the Union. Again, this is not to mention that the NEXT President, Elihu Root, was one of the drafters of OTL's Platt Amendment.

Basically, Cuban independence was in TTL even before the POD.
 
I have changed the year 1907 to read as follows. Are there any other problems with Part 2 or shall I continue on? Feel free to tell me if problems remain and keep those comments coming!

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1907

History and Politics:- Russo-Japanese War The Treaty of Vladivostok, officially ending the Russo-Japanese War, is signed by both of its participants. The treaty assigns all of Manchuria and Sakhalin Island to the Russians. The Japanese, in no position to protest the results of the treaty, turn inwardly. Korea will remain an independent nation as the Korean Empire, officially under the influence of neither Russia nor Japan.
- Despite the victorious end to the war, the new Duma is still opened in St. Petersburg, Russia. The Russian Empire goes through a period reinvigoration following the seemingly victorious end to the Russo-Japanese War.
- The British and Russian governments sign the the Anglo-Russian Entente. The UK had already entered into the Entente Cordiale with France in 1904, while France had concluded the Franco-Russian Alliance in 1894. The Tsar meets the signing of the Anglo-Russian Entente with promises to expand and uprgrade the Russian military.
- With all the news of military buildups and alliances, President Hearst announces that the United States will enlarge and upgrade its Navy with Dreadnaught-type ships. He announces that a US fleet will launch a global cirumnavigation in the fall of 1908. This is mainly to impress (frighten?) the Japanese, who have been acting with hostility towards US interests.
- The Panic of 1907, a relatively serious economic downturn in the United States caused by a New York credit crunch that spread across the nation and led to closing of banks and businesses, begins.
- New Zealand becomes a dominion.
- Hearst’s diplomats stike a deal with the Colombian government, paying a lump sum of $30 million for a swath of land ten miles wide through the Panamanian isthmus. The regions both north and south of the Canal Zone will remain as a part of the Republic of Colombia while Colombian security forces and private citizens will have the right to free transit across the Zone. Those born inside the Canal Zone will hold dual American and Colombian citizenship, if they have one American parent. The US gains the right to construct, protect, and operate the canal. [6]
- Japan concentrates mainly on (re)building its economy while revamping the miltary and secretly meeting with representatives of the German government to discuss a possible alliance against Russia.

Arts and Sciences:
- Inventors Louis Breguet and Charles Richet demonstrate their Gyroplane No. 1, the first rotary wing aircraft to lift a person off the ground (although it is guided by men on the ground).
- The first cabs with taxi meters began operating in London.
- Carl Laemmle of Paramount experiments with combining audio from phonographs with film. Laemmle's experiements lead to the German development of "Syncroscope." "Syncroscope" had several successful demonstrations, but was eventually abandoned.
- Lee DeForest invents the triode thermionic amplifier, starting the development of electronics as a practical technology.
- The Autochrome Lumière is the first color photography process marketed.
 
Excellent. On to the next part. Part III: Elihu Root.

I have the basic material for Root's three year era of rule (yes, three year, you read that right), but I need some filler detail. The basic gist will include the revamping of the Russian military, followed by Germany's "panic" to extend the Triple Alliance to include (at least) 3 more nations, all of which I have already selected. This will be met by protest from the Entente nations and from the United States, although nothing solid will come out of it.

Any ideas as to certain bills that will be sponsors, actions taken, anything else?
 
Beck Reilly said:
Excellent. On to the next part. Part III: Elihu Root.

I have the basic material for Root's three year era of rule (yes, three year, you read that right), but I need some filler detail. The basic gist will include the revamping of the Russian military, followed by Germany's "panic" to extend the Triple Alliance to include (at least) 3 more nations, all of which I have already selected. This will be met by protest from the Entente nations and from the United States, although nothing solid will come out of it.

Any ideas as to certain bills that will be sponsors, actions taken, anything else?

I find E. Root a fascinating figure, though I dont'd pretend to be an expert on him. My take is that he was an internationalist but of a more pragmatic sort than abstract Wilsonian variety. His domestic agenda is less clear. Most likely a patchwork of the various threads in the Republican Party of that time.

I am also very interesting where your Japan goes. One thing to consider is that has not been that long since the Meiji Restoration and one current might be a reactionary movement that looks to restore the Old Ways and is isolationist and inward looking. Not necessarily the doimant strain but a player in the game.
 
- Hearst’s diplomats stike a deal with the Colombian government, paying a lump sum of $30 million for a swath of land ten miles wide through the Panamanian isthmus. The regions both north and south of the Canal Zone will remain as a part of the Republic of Colombia while Colombian security forces and private citizens will have the right to free transit across the Zone. Those born inside the Canal Zone will hold dual American and Colombian citizenship, if they have one American parent. The US gains the right to construct, protect, and operate the canal. [6]

More of a geographic point. I think it would be the regions EAST and WEST of the Canal Zone that will remain Colombian. The Canal runs north and south (generally speaking). The regions north and south of it would be the Caribbean Sea and the Pacific Ocean.
 
Hm. I'm not quite sure what to do as of this moment.

I'm actually considering restructuring the last four years (1905-1909) with a Republican president and having Hearst elected in 1908. Does that sound wrong? Right?

Maybe I'll have Root elected in 1904 and defeated in 1908. Maybe a Hearst Presidency (1909-1917) followed by...what? Teddy? Lodge? Clark? Hughes? Marshall? Stimson? Who? Undecided. I need a little while to work things out.
 
Nevermind. I think I (generally) like the path TTL is heading in, whether or not it is the most probable. I'm going to stick with what I had planned. Part III should be up late tonight or sometime tomorrow.
 
Follow your gut, Beck. If there are mistakes, correct them, but don't let minutiae and over-analysis drag you down. This is top-notch stuff, and I'm eager for the next section(s).
 
I got bored of writing all too quickly and decided to redo the first 8 years. There are changes in: A) the details, and B) the format. For the sake of brevity and my own writing enjoyment, I have sacrificed some detail. I'm having a much easier time of writing in the new format and will continue with this timeline. Part One follows...
 
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