If many of you do no know, in 1963, Indonesia invaded the part of the island of Borneo that was owned by the country of Maylasia. The British stepped in and destroyed the Indoesians with Special Forces. I was wondering what if Indonesia controlled the Island of Borneo, effectivly halving Maylasia? Would they then unify Paupa? I can see them having more of an influence on SE Asian politics, as they control the easiest routes from America to Asia. And would their military victories bolster their military might/influence?
An Indonesian semi-super power.
- Thread starter Gen_Patton
- Start date
I want to see a fatal three way between Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia. The winner gets to unify the islands and gets a monopoly in the stranglehold in the southeast asia.
Of course the western powers will not stand idle while their former colonies does a three way unification war, the scenario will taste like France preventing a German unification.
~
Of course the western powers will not stand idle while their former colonies does a three way unification war, the scenario will taste like France preventing a German unification.
~
Pangur
Donor
Three way war or should that be four?
I would be surprised if in the event of an even more aggressive Indonesia that Australia stayed out of it. From my understanding of Aussie history post 1945, Indonesia was a major factor. Heck it was one of the reasons that there was an attempt to aquire nukes-
I would be surprised if in the event of an even more aggressive Indonesia that Australia stayed out of it. From my understanding of Aussie history post 1945, Indonesia was a major factor. Heck it was one of the reasons that there was an attempt to aquire nukes-
Hmmmm. I can't see Indonesia taking over the Philipines, not without a really bizarre POD way back.
I could see Indonesia prosecuting a Malaysian War, or going for the whole of New Guineau, if conditions were right. Malaysia easier, paradoxically than New Guineau. I could see, for instance, circumstances where Indonesia intervened in/covertly managed a Bornean Malaysian indepence campaign... much the way East Pakistan broke into Bangladesh. Or situations where collapse or weakness of the Malaysian government lead to an opportunistic invasion and occupation, with the west just standing back for some reason.
I have more difficulty seeing a takeover of Papua New Guineau, for no other reason that the Australians would have conniptions and would do their utmost to drag Britain and the United States in.
The trouble with the Phillipines is that America's invested heavily in Subic Bay and Clark Air Force. And the Phillipines was the major platform for American operations in Vietnam, and for support in South Korea, Taiwan and Japan. Go at the Phillipines, you might as well declare war on the US.
On the other hand, the Moro Islands were majority muslim and home to a substantial independence movement. I could see Indonesia pursuing designs there, and maybe feeding the Moro movement.
Beyond that, I can't imagine a situation of disintegration of the Phillipine polity and American abandonment that would allow such a thing.
Still, if you'd like... go for it, could be a fun timeline. And there's not enough Indonesian Timelines.
I could see Indonesia prosecuting a Malaysian War, or going for the whole of New Guineau, if conditions were right. Malaysia easier, paradoxically than New Guineau. I could see, for instance, circumstances where Indonesia intervened in/covertly managed a Bornean Malaysian indepence campaign... much the way East Pakistan broke into Bangladesh. Or situations where collapse or weakness of the Malaysian government lead to an opportunistic invasion and occupation, with the west just standing back for some reason.
I have more difficulty seeing a takeover of Papua New Guineau, for no other reason that the Australians would have conniptions and would do their utmost to drag Britain and the United States in.
The trouble with the Phillipines is that America's invested heavily in Subic Bay and Clark Air Force. And the Phillipines was the major platform for American operations in Vietnam, and for support in South Korea, Taiwan and Japan. Go at the Phillipines, you might as well declare war on the US.
On the other hand, the Moro Islands were majority muslim and home to a substantial independence movement. I could see Indonesia pursuing designs there, and maybe feeding the Moro movement.
Beyond that, I can't imagine a situation of disintegration of the Phillipine polity and American abandonment that would allow such a thing.
Still, if you'd like... go for it, could be a fun timeline. And there's not enough Indonesian Timelines.
Don't forget the territorial disputes at that time. It was saided the Philippines wants the Sabah[the northern tip] part of Borneo, since to was leased by the sultanate of sulu to the british government, when the british government granted malaysia its independence they added sabah to Malaysia.
So the Philippines might work together with Indonesia so they could get their piece of the island back.
So the Philippines might work together with Indonesia so they could get their piece of the island back.
No, it wasn't. Australia first sought to acquire nuclear weapons in 1945-6 IIRC, before Indonesia was independent and while the civil war was still going on there.
Indonesia did figure prominently in Australia foreign policy from about 1950 onwards but most particularly from 1959, when the West New Guinea dispute started coming to a head. This was followed by Konfrontasi in 1965, the invasion of East Timor in 1975 and the ongoing tension, until the intervention there in 1999. Since the fall of the New Order Regime in 1999, it has become perceived less as a national threat and more of a danger as a source of Islamist Takfiri Terrorism and refugee transmigration.
It was one of the the reasons why the F-111 fighter-bomber was acquired as a deterrent against the Indonesian Tu16 Badger bombers. The other was because of RAAF desired to be able to strike SE China from Butterworth in Malaysia.
In the 1980s, it was one of the reasons why the COLLINS class SSKs were acquired, and the ANZAC class frigates were acquired.
In the 1990s it was the reason why the Australian Army reraised 4 RAR and converted it to a Commando battalion in 1997.
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Pangur
Donor
stand corrected
Ok;did not know that the first movs for nukes was that far back or that China was a factor for F-111`s. I was aware the Indo was a factor. Question for you; how big a factor is it now in defense planning? The last defense report least ways from what was in the media seemed to centre on China
Ok;did not know that the first movs for nukes was that far back or that China was a factor for F-111`s. I was aware the Indo was a factor. Question for you; how big a factor is it now in defense planning? The last defense report least ways from what was in the media seemed to centre on China
MacCaulay
Banned
Actually, that was kind of Sukarno's idea at the time of the Confrontation. He had this grand scheme to make some sort of Indian Ocean superpower he wanted to call Maphilindo (MA for Malaysia, PHIL for Philippines, INDO for- you get it). We all see how far that got.
China has moved from a geographically remote, very long-term problem to a still geographically remote, slighly closer long-term problem. It is not considered a "just 'round the corner, major problem", despite what Ross Babbage and the Kokoda Foundation appear to want to believe.
The Australian quest for nuclear weapons is an interesting sideline but basically all Australian governments up to 1968 fooled themselves thinking that there was (a) a possibility of Australia being helped by either of its "great and powerful friends" to achieve nuclear capability or (b) that it could achieve it solo. McMahon finally put paid to it when he decided that Australia would sign the NPT (Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty) in 1969. Gorton was the last PM to seriously entertain the idea. McMahon was more realistic and didn't want to waste money on something we simply didn't need.
Cook
Banned
Prior to 1975 Papua New Guinea was a territory wholly controlled by Australia and endorsed by the United Nations. Any incursions would have been a direct confrontation with Australia.
Sandmannius
Banned
If you want an Indonesia with a larger territory, have the Dutch work harder in grabbing territory, and you might get a more centralized Indonesia-Malaysia-Papa New Guinea nation (once it's independent).
Errr, that is exactly what they attempted to do with Konfrontasi...
Again, this is exactly what occurred in 1959-60 over West New Guinea...
Again, this is what happened...
All in all, three events and crises which occurred in real life and the Indonesians failed to pull off any of them.
Invading the Philippines is almost an ASB. Indonesia could ally with the Philippines to defeat Malaysia is the easiest way to get a somewhat a superpower Indonesia.
Actually, the MAPHILINDO scheme is perpetrated by Macapagal and Sukarno to undermine the formation of the Federation of Malaysia. The Philippines and Indonesia has strong opposition to the formation of Malaysia because of Sabah and fear of British imperialism.
Well, you could try initiating a war between Indonesia/Philippines-Malaysia. I'm pretty sure the West would leave them on their own as the two parties have them two mutual allies - US and the Commonwealths - each with a Mutual Defense Pact.
I recommend reading this.
Well shucks! So this was within the realm of ambition? Goddam. So then the question is, how would Sukarno have succeeded? What kind of POD did he need.
And that would definitely be an interesting timeline - an expansive Indonesia threatening Southeast Asia, a partially dismembered Phillipines and a defensive nuclear armed Australia? Why isn't someone writing it.
Indonesia wanted to unify the South East Asia Territories under one government preferably under theirs. So they asked the Philippines to join their war in exchange of the Philippines getting back Sabah, of course Indonesia would eventually annex the Philippines once they are done with Malaysia?
Most really successful empires don't so much conquer per se as move into power vaccuums among their neighbors. Duking with fellow heavyweights is a good way to waste time lives and treasure.
So I'd say the key would be some kind of instability or breakdown in either Malaysia or the Phillipines. More likely Malaysia.
Also, seems to me that Indonesia would need to be significantly stronger, particularly in naval terms, in this timeline.
Possibly a PO in 1945. Some local indonesian government seizes Japanese assets and imposes a local hegemony?
I dunno, the Phillipines seems to be the most implacable problem. Any move on the Phillipines at any time seems to rouse the US and if America gets involved its game over.
On the other hand, if this sort of Venture has any hope of success... maybe its with American backing? Assume that French Indochina goes irrevocably to hell in a Handbag, instead of North Vietnam, Ho Chi takes the whols enchilada. Thailand decides to become cooperative with its socialist neighbors. The US is freaked, decides that the solution is to pump up a regional superpower and backs an East Indies Federation....
I'm just thinking out loud.
So I'd say the key would be some kind of instability or breakdown in either Malaysia or the Phillipines. More likely Malaysia.
Also, seems to me that Indonesia would need to be significantly stronger, particularly in naval terms, in this timeline.
Possibly a PO in 1945. Some local indonesian government seizes Japanese assets and imposes a local hegemony?
I dunno, the Phillipines seems to be the most implacable problem. Any move on the Phillipines at any time seems to rouse the US and if America gets involved its game over.
On the other hand, if this sort of Venture has any hope of success... maybe its with American backing? Assume that French Indochina goes irrevocably to hell in a Handbag, instead of North Vietnam, Ho Chi takes the whols enchilada. Thailand decides to become cooperative with its socialist neighbors. The US is freaked, decides that the solution is to pump up a regional superpower and backs an East Indies Federation....
I'm just thinking out loud.
MacCaulay
Banned
But they didn't leave them alone, we know that: the British, Australians, New Zealanders (hell, the Rhodesians) backed the Malaysians twice.
I don't think they'd want to mess up with the Americans. US and Philippines got a Mutual Defense Treaty which entitles both to defend each other in case of war. But its inevitably one sided. The treaty is all made up to help protect US interests in the Pacific. If the Filipinos are really clever, they would put good use to that opportunity.
However, in case the US does not back up the Philippines, the former has two choices: let the communists build up their influence in SE Asia or silence herself in the conflict.
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