An independent Ukraine after an Allied victory WW2

An independent Ukraine after an Allied victory WW2

I have a great deal of respect for independent Ukraine, and would like to look at possibilities of their resuming their independence at the end of World War 2, in the context of an Allied victory

I guess this can be approached from several different possible directions

-1- Nazis are less annihilastic on Slavic minorities and ally with Skoropadsky (who was in Berlin) and a puppet Ukraine, which could then later change sides and maintain its independence

-2- USSR collapses (fall of Moscow, death of Stalin etc) and separate republics fight their own guerilla wars, achieve their own victories on their own merits, and drive the Nazis out to demand their own places at the peace conference

-3- Variation on -1- where the Nazis pursue OTL policies but the determined fighting and last-ditch defending of 1944 succeeds, and the Ukrainian elements in the Wehrmacht and SS prove their worth. With a later collapse of the Reich, there is a significant Ukrainian element which is able to achieve independence and switch sides, and have the Allies ignore its earlier past/allegiances (*which they could do when they wanted to)

- - -

What does post-WW2 Eurasia look like ?

All 3 more or less assume Stalin either dies, fails in his defence or hangs on by the skin of his teeth and achieves a strictly limited victory

One can assume, I think, in any of the 3 scenarios, that all of Germany is under the W Allies.

What would the other changes be ?

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
I would think that whatever form of Soviet Union or Russia survives in this time line would quickly be under pressure from various other minority groups that want independence after seeing an independent Ukraine. It really depends on what sort of Russia/Soviet Union you have survive though as to what happens.
 
The one way to do it is to have Russia utterly devastated so they really can't claim it. Otherwise, it's not happening. Stalin wouldn't let an ex-Axis puppet, or even a genuinely independent ally, live within the "cordon sanitaire" against European aggression that he wanted Eastern Europe to be.

If you have the USSR collapsing completely à la Yugoslavia but the US still entering and winning the war by some TBO-like mechanism, you may see an independent Ukraine. Any TL where anything remotely like a coherent Russia remains, not a chance.
 
The one way to do it is to have Russia utterly devastated so they really can't claim it. Otherwise, it's not happening. Stalin wouldn't let an ex-Axis puppet, or even a genuinely independent ally, live within the "cordon sanitaire" against European aggression that he wanted Eastern Europe to be.

If you have the USSR collapsing completely à la Yugoslavia but the US still entering and winning the war by some TBO-like mechanism, you may see an independent Ukraine. Any TL where anything remotely like a coherent Russia remains, not a chance.

Why ? There's a coherent Russia NOW and a Ukraine

I reckoned a prerequisite is Stalin is dead, but his successors, whether Communist or military (or a blend of both) would have their own priorities

Once they've sorted themselves out, and once everything has settled down, by then an independent Ukraine may well have received guarantees, made alliances etc that make it VERY unwise for Moscow to try to get it back

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
If the scenario assumes that the Soviets are part of the victory, they'll pretty much have to had walked over Ukraine before they reach Germany. See what happened to Bulgaria, which was never Axis and did try and ally with the USSR when they came. An independent Ukraine wouldn't be tolerated by any Russian government (the time has not come for a Jeltsin figure, especially not after the vengeful Great Patriotic War). The Soviets wouldn't accept losses of land, and any state set up by or under the Axis would be viewed as illegitimate by all the Allies.

I'd say you need at the very least a much, MUCH weaker USSR and a much-different US foreign policy.
 
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