An independent republic of Ezo under French protection?

What if the French supported the Republic of Ezo in 1869, perhaps in place of their brief ambitions in Korea in 1866? Assuming they do this, just how long could Ezo last with French protection, and how might it die? Would Japan and France go to war over it, or would one of the two accept defeat?
 
What if the French supported the Republic of Ezo in 1869, perhaps in place of their brief ambitions in Korea in 1866? Assuming they do this, just how long could Ezo last with French protection, and how might it die? Would Japan and France go to war over it, or would one of the two accept defeat?

You'd need to remove the Franco-Prussian war (and the broader threat of it, and the domestic reforms to placate the liberals to avoid the risk of internal revolution, and the threat of the Italian nationalists looking over the Vatican, ,ect). The timing for Ezo couldn't have been worse in terms of getting high on Paris's priority list given just how many pots they have boiling in Europe.

Assuming a circumstance where they can spare the attention though, a protectorate isent out of the question. Over time, this probably results in an Ainu identity tying in with older Samurai traditions, becoming a havan for those culturally displaced by the Meji reforms that could keep an internally stable, separate identity.
 
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