An Independent Aragon

Lately, I've been working on a revamped version of my earlier TL "Jo, el rei: The Trastamara Inheritance". Basically, the premise is that King Ferdinand II of Aragon's son by his second wife, Germaine de Foix, John of Aragon, survives infancy and succeeds him in the Aragonese realms, preventing the personal union of the Spanish kingdoms.

So far, here is a rough outline:
From 1509 to 1516, things essentially go as in OTL with the only significant POD being that King Ferdinand conquers Navarra in 1512 for the Crown of Aragon and not Castile (not so difficult, considering there is a precedent of the crowns of those two realms being united, and both he and his wife had a claim to the throne).

After the king's death at the same time in OTL, his son succeeds aged six as King John III of Aragon, with Germaine de Foix as regent by the terms of Ferdinand's will (this seems the most natural option to me, but if there are any more probable candidates in this scenario, please feel free to let me know). In Castile, Charles of Austria is proclaimed king several months later, jointly with his mother, due to the pressure exerted by his grandfather Emperor Maximilian, also as in OTL. As Queen Germaine is in no position to continue fighting the French, both she and Charles conclude peace with King Francis with the Treaty of Noyon, in which the French recognize Aragonese claims to Naples, and in turn, the Aragonese recognize French claims to Milan, probably with King Francois promising one of his daughters to the young King John, as with Charles in OTL--also not so difficult, as the marriage agreement of Germaine and Ferdinand included a clause to a similar effect, by which King Louis XII agreed to abandon his claims to Naples in the event of the birth of a male heir from the union.

Now, here is where I have run into some difficulty. Will the Revolt of the Comuneros still occur in Castile? If so, I can see Aragon offering its support to Charles in putting the rebellion down, as the Trastamaras will probably need to ally themselves rather quickly with the Habsburgs, since Aragon has a history of enmity with France and I can't see any peace lasting that long, given the fact that both have territorial ambitions in Italy. Also, will the Revolt of the Brotherhoods occur at all in Aragon in this scenario? Will the guilds of Valencia and Catalonia see the need to revolt if they are already under the rule of their own monarch and not a foreign prince ruling from Castile? Assuming Charles is still elected Holy Roman Emperor, will the French still back the expedition of the Seigneur de Lesparre to reconquer Navarra for King Henry II? If so, I can still see Castile sending aid to Aragon, as it is within Charles' interests to prevent French influence from extending beyond the Pyrenees.

Basically, I see Aragon as allying closely with the Habsburgs for at least the next century, as it is within their interests to oppose French expansion into Italy. Further, any French alliance with the Ottomans is also a threat to Aragonese interests in the Mediterranean. I think expansion in Italy, if possible, will also be a dynastic goal, especially acquiring Milan at some point. I plan on King John III marrying Charles V's sister, Catherine of Austria. She's only two years his senior and the match would be prefect for preserving the Trastamara-Habsburg alliance. Plus, it means that the King John III of Portugal will have to wed someone else, and thus the Aviz might continue to rule an independent Portugal.

Also, just to make things more interesting, I plan on a Hungarian victory at Mohacs and a halt to Ottoman expansion in the Balkans figuring in somehow, since I like the idea of a strong, independent Hungary, and don't see it as too difficult to achieve.

I'm curious as to everyone else's thoughts on the subject, and any help would be greatly appreciated.
 
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Just a question - is Ferdinand still limiting the conquest of Navarre to the Southern part of the kingdom? Was it united with the Pau part in this period, still? If so, might he not go after the whole thing if its going to enhance Aragonese territory? Or would that more likely lead to a later secession again?

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Just a question - is Ferdinand still limiting the conquest of Navarre to the Southern part of the kingdom? Was it united with the Pau part in this period, still? If so, might he not go after the whole thing if its going to enhance Aragonese territory? Or would that more likely lead to a later secession again?

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

ITTL, things go basically the same as in OTL up until 1516, so yes, it's just Iberian Navarra.
Sorry, I probably should have clarified.
 
Just a question - is Ferdinand still limiting the conquest of Navarre to the Southern part of the kingdom? Was it united with the Pau part in this period, still? If so, might he not go after the whole thing if its going to enhance Aragonese territory? Or would that more likely lead to a later secession again?

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

Well, technically Ferdinand did not limit himself to Iberian Navarre. He conquered both, then Charles I/V withdrew from the northern part a few years later.
 
Well, technically Ferdinand did not limit himself to Iberian Navarre. He conquered both, then Charles I/V withdrew from the northern part a few years later.

Ah, right! So, would a regent for Juan do that? Especially if said regent was Genevieve (who in OTL got to be regent of .... Barcelona or Valencia IIRC) ?

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
I'm not sure. Charles did so because that corner was undefendable and fell everytime war with the French broke out, and he probably concluded that it was pointless in the grand scheme of things anyway. Does the same situation play here?
 
I'm not sure. Charles did so because that corner was undefendable and fell everytime war with the French broke out, and he probably concluded that it was pointless in the grand scheme of things anyway. Does the same situation play here?

Yes, I should say that it does, more or less. Probably around the same time as OTL, given that war with France in the 1520s is very likely, for the reasons mentioned in the OP.

However, if you would all be so kind, let us abandon Navarra for a moment to look at the other questions I brought up--they've been a constant problem for me with TTL and I desperately need some feed back.
 
As Queen Germaine is in no position to continue fighting the French, both she and Charles conclude peace with King Francis with the Treaty of Noyon, in which the French recognize Aragonese claims to Naples, and in turn, the Aragonese recognize French claims to Milan, probably with King Francois promising one of his daughters to the young King John, as with Charles in OTL--also not so difficult, as the marriage agreement of Germaine and Ferdinand included a clause to a similar effect, by which King Louis XII agreed to abandon his claims to Naples in the event of the birth of a male heir from the union.

Would Charles V agree with these terms? After all, Ferdinand's wars in Italy were sustained by Castilian troops, and Aragon didn't have conditions or manpower to fight alone.

Also, I doubt the Aragonese would want to expand to Milan. Their interests lied on Southern Italy, and Milan was on Habsburg sphere of influence. Even when Charles received Milan he included in the Castilian sphere, not the Aragonese crown.
 
Would Charles V agree with these terms? After all, Ferdinand's wars in Italy were sustained by Castilian troops, and Aragon didn't have conditions or manpower to fight alone.

Also, I doubt the Aragonese would want to expand to Milan. Their interests lied on Southern Italy, and Milan was on Habsburg sphere of influence. Even when Charles received Milan he included in the Castilian sphere, not the Aragonese crown.

Point taken about Milan. Perhaps if the Sforza still die out ITTL, it will end up in Habsburg possession after all.

Queen Germaine is going to have to conclude peace with King Francois, as she has very little other options, given how she no longer has the funds or the troops to support Aragonese expansion in Italy without Castile. Also, Pope Leo has already made his separate peace as in OTL, so it's only the most natural option. King Francois already has Milan, and there's really not much will to carry on the fight by the League of Cambrai.

I don't see Charles V doing anything but concluding peace as well at this point. After all, he has no interest in Italy at this point as King of Castile, and it's within his interest to preserve the balance of power there.

Just my thoughts.
 
However, if you would all be so kind, let us abandon Navarra for a moment to look at the other questions I brought up--they've been a constant problem for me with TTL and I desperately need some feed back.

The Devil is in the details, so pardon if I insist in this once again.

Aragon will not just abandone that piece of land like Charles did, but might cede it directly to France. If so, there wouldn't be land for Henri II to back his title, and his claim to the throne of Navarre and that of his descendants might fade into obscurity. Charles could see the continued existence of a kingdom of Navarre north of the Pyrenees as irrelevant because it really was, in comparison with his giant empire covering half of Europe. But Aragon alone would see it as a great threat to its rule south of the Pyrenees: Navarre is a lot bigger when seen in the context of Aragon alone, and they can't trust Charles to keep the French out always.

Speaking about the Germanias, the original spark was caused by a plague and the way the nobles dealt for that - basically leaving the city to deal with it by itself. That might mean there would still be a revolt, but it would probably be smaller and crushed soon by the Crown. I agree with your idea that Aragon would then help Charles put down his own (and bigger) rebellion; after all, at one point the rebels attempted to free Joan, or at least claimed to. Germaine might exagerate the threat and believe that a "victorious" Joan would come to Aragon next and claim her son's kingdom(s) for herself.
 
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