Overview: I’ve been a long time reader, never contributed before. Only because I didn't find something that I was really interested in, so please indulge my beginners pride!
I’ve tried to determine what the Canadian political landscape would be like if Ignatieff had won the 2006 Liberal Leadership Convention. My point of divergence will be the impact of the attack on Qana. In OTL, Ignatieff claimed he didn’t lose sleep over it, and then backtracked, and this left him on the right of the Liberal Party, especially with him supporting the invasion of Iraq. Combined with his 30 year absence, it probably lost him the leadership.
Please let me know what you think, the first part will go from August 2006 until the convention, with a possible expansion after that should all go well!
TL:
August 2006
1 August 2006 – Two days after the attack on Qana by Israel, Michael Ignatieff, running for the Liberal Leadership, when asked by a reporter from the Globe & Mail says the following: “It bothers me when people can’t come together and solve problems like Canada can. Israel has every right to defend itself – all nations do – but they can’t plead for peace and then attack their enemies. Instead of encouraging a proactive solution, Stephen Harper is picking sides, betraying over 60 years of Canada being dedicated to peace in the world. When I am Prime Minister, Canadians can expect their government to be an active player to achieving peace in the Middle East”.
2 August 2006 – The Toronto Star leads with the headline “Israel, solve problems like Canada does: Iggy”. The Globe and Mail leads with the story: “Iggy calls on PM to call for peace”, that National Post says “Harper versus Ignatieff?”
3 August 2006 – In an interview with Le Devoir, Dion states that Israel should be subject to sanctions. Jewish voters throughout Canada condemn Dion on his stance.
10 August 2006 – In an interview with The Toronto Star, Ignatieff is asked about his support for the 2003 invasion of Iraq. When pressed about WMD, he replies “Yeah, I was wrong on that one…” but goes on to say “but the Iraqi’s didn’t deserve to live under that tyrant, we left him there during the Gulf War, I don’t lose sleep knowing Iraqi’s have more freedom’s then they did three years ago”.
11 August 2006 – Bob Rae condemns his college roommate, Ignatieff for the “don’t lose sleep” comment.
18 August 2006 – Exos Polling releases the following poll:
Ignatieff – 24%
Rae – 20%
Dion – 10%
Kennedy – 9%
Dryden - 7%
Brison - 7%
Volpe – 1%
Findlay – 1%
Undecided – 21%
25 August 2006 – A leak to Sun Media, details the Conservatives plans should Ignatieff or Rae win, they are: “Ignatieff – Just visiting” and “Rae – Ready for Rae Days?”
26 August 2006 – Both Ignatieff and Rae attack the Conservatives for the negative politics and interference in a Liberal Leadership Contest; both leadership campaigns claim that the attack ads show that the Prime Minister fears a win by either candidate.
27 August 2006 – Joe Volpe announces he will not contend the leadership due to his low performance in the polls, he endorses Bob Rae. However Volpe’s previous baggage might not help Rae.
28 August 2006 – Senator Grant Mitchell convinces Ignatieff in a phone call to spend more time in the west to increase his visibility amongst westerners – and western liberals.