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As you know, Spain supported North American “rebels” during the ARW. Britain would do the same during the first decade of the XIX century, without much success [1]. Eventually, the Spanish colonies would rebel themselves in 1810, but, since GB was by then an ally of Spain, she couldn’t openly support the rebels, as Spain and France had done during the ARW (of course, she tacitely backed them by not helping Spain in reconquering her lost territories after 1815). Britain wouldn’t officialy recognize the independence of Spanish American countries till well advanced the 1820ies.
But what if Tupac Amaru II’s rebellion had been slightly more succesful?
José Gabriel Condorcanqui (1740-1781) was a direct descendant of the last Incan King (Tupac Amaru). In 1780, he rebelled against the new taxes introduced by the Bourbon Kings (which added yet another weight over the already heavy load carried by the Indians on their shoulders). Condorcanqui was a relatively wealthy and a well-educated cacique (the Spaniards had established a hierarchical system in which some caciques, especially those of Incan descent, enjoyed several privilages; some of them where even made nobles). José proclaimed himself legitimate Monarch of the Land, renamed himself “Tupac Amaru II”, and led a revolutionary movement which, at least initially, had the support not only of the oppressed Indians, but also of many mestizos and Criollos [2]. The rebels achieved a great victory at the Battle of Sangara, but they failed to take Cuzco. Tupac had also a lot of trouble in mantaining the cohesion and discipline of his army: the “excesses” comited by Indians after their victory against the symbols of Spanish authorities allienated him the support of a lot of the Criollos. He was eventually beaten, captured, tortured and executed.
But what if his army was able to take Cuzco, AND he were able to keep his troops under control, so the city isn’t sacked??? IOTL, the rebellion got so much support outside its original area that it lasted well beyond Tupac Amaru’s death, and had reprecussions in areas which had never been part of the Incan empire, such as western Chaco (present day Argentina). Let’s say that after taking Cuzco his ally Tupac Katari lays siege to La Paz (as IOTL) and takes it. This would get Tupac Amaru control of a huge area, heavilly populated and full of mineral resources, encompassing what’s now Southwesterm Perú and Eastern Bolivia. His program, which proposed the abolition of unpopular taxes, might get him the support of Creoles (I know it’s whishfull thinking, but maybe this could compensate them for the suppresion of all forms Indian forced labour, from which they had proffited since the conquest)
So, the questions I’d like to ask are:
1) Could Tupac Amaru II have consolidated a viable state?
2) Could he have made contact with the British, and got their support? It’s hard, but maybe this could have been achieved somehow, either by the rebels getting control of part of the Pacific coast, or through Portuguese Brazil. There are some rumours that he had to British advisors IOTL, but these might be rumours spread by the Spaniards in Perú in order to undermine his prestige.
3) If 1) and 2) are answered affirmatively, how big would his state be?. I don’t think Chile and most of Argentina would join, for example, as, at least in the Eastern part of Argentina, there weren’t that many Indians used as forced workers, and I don’t see much support for the rebellion. In fact, the Vicerroy of the River Plate, established in Buenos Aires dent troops to supress it.
4) How would this state develop? IOTL, after the failure of the rebelion, Perú was a very conservative society. Its elites in Lima where so comfortable with the Spanish rule that it had to be liberated from abroad (from the South by San Martin and from the North by Bolivar). Even after the independence of the Country, the Coast kept dominting over the western “Sierras”, and the Indians kept been treated badly for more than a century. But how would this ATL Peru have developped? Could Tupac Amaru II and his successors have created an armonious society between Indians, Mestizos and Criollos (maybe using Catholicism as an unifying force, since he wasn’t against Chistianity)? If not, how would this society evolved? Which group would lead? Or would there be total anarchy?
Thoughts? Ideas? Comments?
Notes:
[1] Miranda’s expedition to Venezuela cannot be called a success
[2] Criollos: people of Spanish descent born in the New world