An everyone wank-WWII

Alex Richards, the British won't be stripping Egypt at all, especially since Italy likely declares war as France is falling while if discussion of the DEI waits until after France surrenders then there is no war with Japan before war with Italy.

Personally, I agree with you. I was simply saying that even if we go with the OP's scenario as much as possible, the simple logistics of the operation make it an impossibility for Britain to have stripped the garrison of Egypt before the fall of France.
 
Never heard of it. Is it a video game? :(

A computer game. Your scenario reads like some of the AARs I've seen on their forum.

I only idly skimmed the thread, since it seems to be more of the same, but this caught my eye:

Vichy France resisted the invasion of Indochina and the U.S.A. didn't come along on its white stallion for them.

Actually, the US embargoed oil for Japan, and got the Dutch to do the same. That started the count-down timer for the war, since Japan only had so long before they ran out of oil.
 
Actually, the US embargoed oil for Japan, and got the Dutch to do the same. That started the count-down timer for the war, since Japan only had so long before they ran out of oil.

Well in this timeline the United States still embargoes Japan: It's just less effective because Japan obviously isn't going to run out of oil. Japan never gets desperate enough to try a Pearl Harbor-like stunt and therefore avoids war with the U.S.A. (until 1945 at least)

To Grimm Reaper and Alex Richards: Your logical and well reasoned arguments have convinced me that the Axis cannot take Suez, at least not in 1940. However, there could not be an Operation Compass analog because the Indian and Australian divisions used in it will be diverted to/never leave the Pacific theater. The continued presence of France in the war should clue in Hitler that the Med is the most important theater of war for the time being, and this will convince him to commit the Luftwaffe to the Med instead of the ill-fated Battle of Britain, and cause him to create a well supported Afrika Korps as well. A more committed Germany roughly balances out the Free French, and the British are worse off because of the war with Japan. The Axis is still in a distinctly better position, so Franco might still be strong armed into joining. If Hitler meets with Franco in January 1941 and tells him that the Wehrmacht is coming to take Gibraltar whether he likes it or not, Franco is likely to concede because there's not point in making Spain itself a battleground. That opens up another front against French colonies, makes Malta's position more tenuous, and similar knock on effects.
 
Well in this timeline the United States still embargoes Japan: It's just less effective because Japan obviously isn't going to run out of oil. Japan never gets desperate enough to try a Pearl Harbor-like stunt and therefore avoids war with the U.S.A. (until 1945 at least)

To Grimm Reaper and Alex Richards: Your logical and well reasoned arguments have convinced me that the Axis cannot take Suez, at least not in 1940. However, there could not be an Operation Compass analog because the Indian and Australian divisions used in it will be diverted to/never leave the Pacific theater. The continued presence of France in the war should clue in Hitler that the Med is the most important theater of war for the time being, and this will convince him to commit the Luftwaffe to the Med instead of the ill-fated Battle of Britain, and cause him to create a well supported Afrika Korps as well. A more committed Germany roughly balances out the Free French, and the British are worse off because of the war with Japan. The Axis is still in a distinctly better position, so Franco might still be strong armed into joining. If Hitler meets with Franco in January 1941 and tells him that the Wehrmacht is coming to take Gibraltar whether he likes it or not, Franco is likely to concede because there's not point in making Spain itself a battleground. That opens up another front against French colonies, makes Malta's position more tenuous, and similar knock on effects.

If Hitler tells Franco that he's going to march troops through Spain whether he cares or not, Franco will either

a. be deposed by the army for this humiliating assault on Spanish national pride.
b. Tell Hitler to f*** off.

If Hitler doesn't get the message and decides to invade Spain, the Spain joins the allies, shortly followed by Portugal. An invasion of the Pyrrhenees would fail pretty much instantaneously, leaving only seaborne invasions via the north coast (inviable due to the strength of the Royal Navy in the Atlantic) or the Med. Taking into account the strength of the French fleet, the Spanish fleet and the Royal Navy, the most likely outcome of this is an earlier destruction of Italian positions in North Africa due to supply issues and possibly a 1942 invasion of Sicily.

Fundamentally, Franco by 1941 will have seen how Hitler treats his 'allies' and will come to the conclusion that letting German troops in to the country effectively makes Spain a vassal of Germany. Franco isn't joining the Axis unless it's on his terms.
 
So Nazi Germany can't even survive WWII even if they persue a mediterranean strategy, don't contemplate Sealion, postpone Opperation Barbarossa, get Japan and Spain on their side early, avoid conflict with the U.S. and kill off Hitler?


That's it then. That's the best I've got. I tried. :eek:
 
So Nazi Germany can't even survive WWII even if they persue a mediterranean strategy, don't contemplate Sealion, postpone Opperation Barbarossa, get Japan and Spain on their side early, avoid conflict with the U.S. and kill off Hitler?

That's it then. That's the best I've got. I tried. :eek:

On this board, a Med strategy is not considered a plus. Here we're more in the "no Africa Corps and take Leningrad off the march" camp. I used to think the Med was a good move, but studying the problem persuaded me that it was only a good idea in computer games.

Postponing Barbarossa also isn't necessarily a plus. Germany's strength was growing... but so was that of the USSR. Arguably the Red Army was at a low point compared to the Wehrmacht in mid-1941; the Germans were on a winning streak and had just gotten a bunch of new equipment, while the Soviets had recently been humiliated by Finland and hadn't gotten most of their planned new equipment yet.

I'd say Germany's best path is to: Halt all surface unit construction more than a month or two from completion when hostilities commence in 1939. Let Mussolini beat his head against whatever brick walls he feels like but offer him no support outside of Europe. Close the pocket at Dunkirk, and no Battle of Britain. The OTL forces of the "Africa Corps" go to the northern thrust into Russia in order to take Leningrad, link up with the Finns, turn the Baltic into a Nazi lake (move supplies by sea to Leningrad, avoiding partisans and rail-gauge changes), and clear the left flank. If Moscow can be taken before the snow fine, if not dig in and take it next year. The troops brought winter clothing, right? Don't declare war on the US. In 1942 take Moscow, Stalingrad, and offer the Soviets a peace treaty along a line from Archangel to Astrakhan. If they won't accept it, dig in along that line anyway while securing the area behind it. The Axis has a year or two before the Allies (the US will get in at some point) are strong enough to try a counter-blow, which might be enough time to digest their conquests enough to make them into a net economic plus.

Odds of pulling this off: pretty low. Odds of Hitler being foresighted enough to do all this: nil.
 
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