I just produced an essay (1837 words long) about how a Nazi Victory Scenario would be very unlikely.
There are several common Clichés in alternate History revolving around WW2, most notably on a Nazi Victory and what happens afterwards. I believe these clichés are just myths propagated for the sake of storytelling, and I hope in this essay to dispel them and shed some light on the real situation for Nazi Germany and the world.
First off, Nazi Germany was not in a real position to win on the Eastern front. This can be chalked up to a variety of factors:
Nazi Germany’s military was not up to the task of conquering Russia. They were inadequately equipped with thin leather boots for the winter. This was because Hitler expected the same Blitzkrieg – combined Arms attack – strategy to work on the Eastern Front as it did in France. Thusly, they expected to conquer European Russia before the winter had set in. However, this did not work, and the ill-prepared German Military suffered greatly in the winter as a result.
The Generals were also restricted by Hitler, who wanted total control of the German military because he did not want a coup. This led to a huge series of military defeats after the initial victories in 1941. Even at Kursk, Hitler did not give the generals any autonomy, leading to the loss of much of the German tank forces in Russia at that time.
Germany’s industrial capacity was not ready for the concept of Total War. It was only in 1942 that Nazi Germany’s economy was switched to a war footing, by then it was too late to do anything to alter the outcome of the war, as the Soviet Industrial capacity had exceeded Nazi Germany and the window of victory had largely closed.
There was also the entry of the United States of America that had ensured the defeat of Nazi Germany. This was because the USA had the largest industrial base in the world and had some of the best aircraft in the world, such as the P-51 Mustang fighter plane. These, along with other weapons, were being exported to Russia under the Lend Lease programme. They were considered superior to most of their Russian contemporaries, apart from the famous T-34 tank.
The Soviet Union meanwhile had many advantages. They had a large area to defend and knew the place like the back of their hand. As such, guerrilla operations were very effective in the Nazi occupied regions, significantly disrupting military operations in those areas.
Stalin was willing to give autonomy to his Generals, particularly Zhukov. To this end, he created the STAVKA, or Soviet High Command, and made himself Marshal of the Soviet Union. This meant that there was more effective military planning on the Soviet Union’s part, and would help them to win the war.
The Soviets were also fighting on their own home soil. When a nation is fighting on its own soil, it tends to fight mercilessly and to the very end. This was shown in Stalin’s Decree 221, which bore the famous idiom “not one step back”, showing how fanatical Soviet Resistance to Nazism War.
For the Nazis to win in the Eastern Front, several things must happen. One, remove the US from the picture completely. Without the United States, Stalin would not have attained lend-lease and his military would have suffered as a result. Lend-lease was one of the most vital reasons the Soviet Union won World War II.
Secondly involve Japan. This would have created a second front which would have diverted vital resources from Germany. The pressure on the Soviet Union would have been immense as it would have to face two enemies simultaneously. However, this was not feasible because in the Japanese-soviet border wars of 1938, the Kwangtung Army were devastated by the militarily superior Red Army.
Thirdly, Hitler needs to give the military autonomy. Of course this will have to involve an act of god, but if the German High Command were not obstructed by him, they might have been able to win the war, although this is very unlikely.
Fourthly, the Nazis have to move the economy to a war footing in 1939 and revise war production methods. The Nazis had some of the best tanks in World War 2, but because of mismanagement of resources, they were producing so many variants, leading to problems on the front line. The Soviet Union did not have that problem because they had a single Heavy tank, which would later evolve into the Main Battle Tank military doctrine
Fifthly, the Nazis have to get a Viable Atomic bomb programme. In OTL, Gernany had a disastrous nuclear weapons programme, despite having some of the best physicists in the world. This was because of Bureaucracy and Hitler's indifference towards the bomb as well as a lack of nuclear fissile material. If the Nazis got a bomb ready by 1945, they could ward off any American threats in a manner akin to OTL's MAD.
Sixthly, the Nazis must have a long-range Strategic bomber. One reason the Nazis lost the war was becasue they didn't have a long rage bomber as an equivalent to the Americans' B-17 or British Lancaster. That alone would have significantly crippled Soviet War Production.
Lastly, the German Military has to be prepared for a protracted war. A precedent for this being a necessity lies in the Napoleonic wars, when Napoleon tried to invade Russia with 400,000 men. The winter killed most of them off, thus sealing Napoleon’s fate. This means German Soldiers are better equipped for the winter and are given more provisions to survive protracted warfare.
Even if Nazi Germany does win in the Eastern Front and gain lots of Soviet territory, it would have to face down the United States, which it would be in no position to fight in a protracted war. So we have a Cold War situation. How would Nazi Germany fare in this regard?
Geopolitics would definitely be in favour of the United States and Britain, and they would have advantages in terms of allies. Remember, after WW2, the Global Market idea really takes off from here onwards, meaning that the whole world is a marketplace. In this regard, Britain and America would have a lot of advantages on their side across the world.
We shall begin in Latin America. It’s a common cliché in any Nazi victory alternate history that Argentina turns Nazi. This would not happen because the United States would send a CIA, or CIA Equivalent team to foment a coup or assassination plot, just like with Castro OTL. As with the rest of Latin America, it’s considered “America’s backyard” and has been ever since the Monroe Doctrine of 1825 protecting the newly independent Latin American nations from European Imperialism. This was one reason why the New Imperialism did not venture into the Americas. Even if Argentina did turn Nazi, it would have been surrounded by Chile, Bolivia, Uruguay, Paraguay and Brazil, which can isolate it from any economic strength.
We shall then look at Africa. Even if Germany does win in North Africa, it would have choked on what they have taken alongside Italy if they tried to move beyond North Africa. This means that Areas such as Nigeria, Angola, Mozambique, the Congo and other resource-rich provinces of Africa would be in the Anglo-American Sphere of Influence. The Coastal nation of Liberia would have been an important military asset for any Allied Cold War, as it had no ties with any of the European Colonial Powers and would thusly have been more malleable to the US. Because it occupies a major hub of trade between Free Africa and the rest of the world, Liberia would most likely be Africa’s equivalent of Singapore. Another issue is South Africa. Britain would not allow Apartheid in South Africa and would crack down on it even harsher than OTL, so expect trade sanctions by 1950, as well as possible suspension from the commonwealth.
Now, Asia shall be broken up into 5 key components: the Middle East, South East Asia, South Asia, East Asia and Northern & Central Asia. We will look at the Middle East First. Saudi Arabia has been a Key asset of the United States ever since the times of FDR. Thusly, they will do anything to keep Saudi Arabia in their Sphere of Influence. Iran and Iraq will most likely be kept in the Anglo-American Sphere of Influence as well. We might even see Britain and America making deals with people such as Mohammed Mossadegh, with no Soviet Union to worry about. South East Asia would be certainly in the Anglo-American Sphere of Influence as we might even see them support decolonisation and integration into their alliance.
East Asia would be more of a problem, as China is undergoing a civil war between the Maoists and the Kuomintang (The Chinese Government). The Anglo-Americans would aid the KMT against Mao in order to prevent a Communist Resurgence, which is the last thing any of them want. Chiang Kai Shek was already pro-America, so we might even see a democratisation of China that would be earlier than OTL, with a Deng Xiaoping-esque model of economy, thus sparing china the economic and political devastation of the Maoist era. Korea and Japan would certainly be reconstructed just like OTL. India, on the other hand, would be undergoing partition at this moment, with Nazi agitators trying to provoke a civil War in order to cause as much chaos for the Allies as possible. This Proxy war would thus be one of the battlegrounds in the Cold War.
Finally, Central and Northern Asia would certainly be in the Allies. The now battered Soviet Union would have no-one else to turn to for help, with much of their population and industrial base lost to Nazi Germany. The Soviet Union may liberalise earlier than OTL as a result and would be the hub for partisan activity.
We will then look at technology. Nazi Germany would have been lacking in key physicists, as the OTL nuclear bomb programme showed. The Nazi education system, which was mostly oriented on racist propaganda, would have caused problems with regards to the sciences. The Alliance (an ad hoc name for the anti-nazi bloc) would be encouraging the sciences in the education system. The Space programme is another issue. A myth propagated about Nazi Germany is the Von Braun Stations that would somehow have made it unbeatable. But the Von Braun Stations would have consumed a lot of resources, not just to get it up, but to keep it up as well, with repairs and maintenance work. As well as that, the Alliance would just create countermeasures, such as specially designed missiles, computer viruses etc. This myth of superior Nazi science is partially propagated by Nazi propaganda itself, most notably in the Wunderwaffe which Hitler believed would win Germany the war. Any Nazi technology developments would have been stunted by the inherent totalitarian nature of Nazism.
The Nazi Military would have degraded over time for many reasons. One, their technology would have meant redundant military doctrines would have been retained, like Saddam’s with Desert Storm in 1991 OTL. As well as that, they would have had inferior weapons. Secondly, their propaganda of the “master race” would have them believe they were invincible and would thusly lead to a sense of Victory disease, where the first defeat would shatter morale. It’s one thing to lose a battle. It’s another while thinking you are invincible. The United States in Vietnam showed this problem.
The Nazi Economy by 1941 was a looter economy which relied on war to sustain it. This was due to Hitler’s policies on Deficit Spending which increased the Debt to GDP ratio by a significant factor. Even with the plunder of Eastern Europe, the Nazis would have had problems with corruption and stagnation when facing a Cold War with the West. As well as that, there would have been a huge amount of deficits accrued in military expenditures far greater than the Soviet Union in OTL. As well as that, corruption and stagnation inherent I many command economies would have crippled Nazi Germany. Which is why reforms a la china OTL would be necessary for Germany to survive a Cold War.
Social Issues would be a major problem for the Reich. For one, the Nazis would have to keep on their toes regarding partisan activities in their newly conquered territories. There was also dissent and corruption as well as stagnation that i highlighted in the above paragraph. If Nazi Germany is to survive, it must reform along some lines otherwise the social tensions among the Germans and the Slavs would cause a civil war.
I can conclude therefore that a Nazi Victory is not a feasible scenario for the reasons outlined above, and that a Cold War between Nazi Germany and any Anti-Nazi alliance would cause even more problems for the Nazis.